Disney Showcases Apple's iWatch Potential [View article]
great article! someone has finally explained to me what the iWatch might do...pretty interesting actually. with the wireless charging it could charge while you sleep, potentially with it on your wrist. That might be why that technology is getting some press as well as the watch.
Hmmm that makes Apple about worth a little bit more than it's cash? Your really believe that? Wow catchy title though, nice for racking up some eyeballs and $$$$'s I guess.
Anyway let's consider that a lower cost phone in China, new wireless charging that allows all your devices to "cook" on a desktop area surface with no connections and some larger screen phones does. Not to say they'll hit it out of the park but it should get interesting in late 2013. The iWatch seems interesting but not nearly as much as a living room that doesn't suffer from "remote anxiety attacks" like mine.
Apple: Is Tim Cook The Next Steve Ballmer? [View article]
Man I can't believe I am this disconnected with what other people are talking about. I think the next article about Apple should be entitled: "What's up with the Humans?". Here are my points:
In defense of Apple: Apple is growing it's way into the enterprise, it dominates tablets, it has huge upscale phone business, it's PC business is growing while others are shrinking, it is growing it's content sales from apps and media, it is growing it's business in ad revenue, it has a global supply chain with a proven valueable retail store model. Apple has a deep moat and and pile of cash that the US government would envy. OK le'ts slam this stock and trade it at like 8 times forward earnings, despite the fact that it pays a dividend to boot. Growth slowing, but still strong and next generation productcs are particularly alluring. So what should we buy instead of Apple?
Google. Great company. But there is a small problem, it has nothing but search and ads, that's it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It is the worlds largest one trick pony...very impressive in size and capability but that thing ever comes up lane then down she comes. Google gets NOTHING for Android but the search they can generate from it. Android was a defensive measure. Still it's, Buy. Buy. Buy.
Amazaon. I just bought 12 items for my remodel project online and some at Home Depot. None came from Amazon...I went around them completely on price and got great service to boot with a broader selection. So what's my point? It's an online retailer...the barriers to entry there are not that great and the competition is everywhere. Why does AMZN sell at zillions times earnings despite the fact that it earns nothing? I know...they are investing in infrastructure...but the problem is they invest in basic stuff....there ecos system is bricks and mortar--hardly alive and vital. Just one more warehouse....ah that will do it......then we'll finally start making some money.
So my take on it is this: Cook is fine. Apple is fine. The humans are just at it again, a bunch of jackanapes on Wall St. can't pull down this stock price forever.
Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
I think the trends are somewhat obvious as you say...but worth noting. I wonder if the other things might be factored into some rebound:
1. Mac sales down due to late release of new published models. 2. increasing iOS units driving more iTunes and Apps purchases. This has to grow as time goes by...what happens when there 2 billion iOS device on the planet? 3. New openings in more countries--increasing the global footprint.
Bottom line is I see a sideways to small upside as the company chugs out more and better phone, pad and mac products. I'm holding for now. My guess is the post Jobs era will be to go after the enterprise more than the TV.
I think Apple stock fell after the call over 10% because revenue was directed with a much more clarity that it will be below 10% ($39.2 to max of $43) and could be as low as 5%. What Apple has done and are what they are doing is impressive. It will do just fine, but the big growth not there. I don 'think it falls from here because earnings are solid and cash is there with the dividend--just limited growth will keep this stock in a range, say $440-$550 for 12 months, until something really different happens.
Apple Doesn't Have A Problem, You Do [View article]
Well I like this article and I like the stock--still long but here are two things that still bug me:
1. This last call where the expectations were essentially communicated to be a 50% reduction in growth by the CFO. He seemed to go out of his way to let it be known that growth is waning.
2. The market cap is so huge, I wonder if the stock has issues gaining steam just because it's so damn big. Add 500 points to Apple and you suck the oxygen out of this market. So when Apple is down then the market is up and visa versa...it's like sloshing money from one side to the other.
Here is part of the call you missed due to a comm outage that cut out some stuff from one of the more intelligent analysts on the beat:
Mike: "Tim and Peter, it's Mike here, from Gottaclue Investments, thanks for taking my question. Do you really believe your Revenue growth will be cut in half starting next quarter as your guidance suggests on today's call, and if so, what do you attribute the slowing growth to?
Tim: "Well Mike thank you for that question....at the heart of it is that our screens are just simply awesome...we have best the best display screens in the world and ....we just think those guys out in China...they don't have enough, wan...or won or whatever it is...to pay for all these simply awesome, stunning and beautiful screens we're making. What do you think Peter?"
Peter: "Oh yea, the screens are cool Tim--you got that right. We're pretty sure that the revenue impacts from these stunning screens that are up channel, well they are best kept nebulous because it's all incredibly complex you know. Underlying this guidance is...."
Tim: "Peter sorry to interrupt but Mike, have you tried our new ear phones yet? They ergonomically contour to your ear and man I rock out to my Def Leapard all day long with these stunning and incredibly, awesome ear phones. Ohhhhhhh. Oh I see our time is up, See ya next quarter!"
You hit it right on. I listened to this thing live and was not pleased at the way Peter Oppenheimer seemed to think he owed nothing to nobody and Tim acted like a sales guy in the Apple store. (Not a slam I like those guys but--you get the point) I didn't do the math on my fingers quick enough so it was not obvious at the time that Opp was screaming to the world that growth projections have been cut in half. No, during the call I was too busy screaming at the phone: "I already own all your #*@) Tim, tell me what I need to know as an investor"
I'll take you up on that. The problem is in defining what a laptop and a tablet is. My definition is this: Something that Apple touts as both a Mac and a Tablet. Clock running.
While I'm sure you're doing a jig that the company you so obviously hate is down 40%, your theories on the industry are laced with assumptions and non sequential logic.
MSFT has bombed. The Surface is virtually devoid of users and same is true for WIndow Phone. Same may be said for the Nook and the Kindle, to a lesser degree. Samsung is another story but everything else is nothing more than wishful thinking.
The tablet/PC "click" has virtually no market, whereas the tablet market is massive and growing. PC sales are shrinking, especially the desktop. You sound like a paid ad from MSFT. Slice it any way you want, there is nothing material about any PC taking away from any tablet at this juncture.
I would agree the earnings call was poor...the guidance portion of it was especially lame and almost unprofessional on the part of Oppenheimer. Just not impressed with this call. You'd think he was an artist thumbing his nose at critics....artists do that kind of thing (even if they can't afford it) but a CFO is still a glorified bean counter, and he was not working for me the other day.
APPL has refreshed it's lineup well and added the mini, but the fundamental mission of the company has not changed. It's foot print has, the ability to sell more content globally is really encouraging. Still very profitable, devices are growing and the content sales are increasing. 1/10 the issues of MSFT but punished 10 times more.
Tim needs to expand the eco-system with a broader vision. TV, Home security, automobile...this is what we want to interface with.
I feel this pull back this morning is mostly about Oppenheimer and Cook not providing good guidance. 1st they changed the way they are doing guidance, just a high low rev number. 2nd. they would not elaborate on if this is a conservative number or not; but suggested the range would be hit almost without fail, suggesting a more accurate number. 3rd. the numbers point to a mere 5-10% growth rate. I was not pleased at the way this was handled at all. Essentially they put up a cloud of slowing growth and would not elaborate and said nothing about the future product line and just wanted to remark on how cool there stuff was and that they are constrained on many items. I don't know who to dislike more at this point, the tarot card wielding analysts or Apple communications. Still I like my stuff and the way it works and the EPS looked great. If they would have just stuck with that and explained the Mac issue as cutting into rev due to late launch, we'd be better off this morning.
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
I listened to the call, the biggest negative on this call that might drive pull back is when Oppenheimer stated (and then restated) how future estimates will be done. It sounded to me like: We used to low ball it, but not we'll give you a more accurate range on rev only and for next quarter that's 5-10% increase. I think that essentially sounded a warning bell that growth is slowing.
I still don't understand the brutal reaction to the earning report. The analysts are like tarot card readers; and if you don't hit the number the dart lands on they want to tank the stock. Feels like manipulation. The company performed brilliantly with all these new updates to the line and earnings growth is there. So lets tank the stock another 10%? Strange.
Other things I heard:
(a) Big screen phones are not coming. The phone is a one hand thing to Apple. (b) TV vision is not ready to be discussed. Though the assertion that Apple TV is no longer an Apple hobby seems to at least tee up the ball for this. (c) No indication of a change in the product update cycle like a 5S. No mention of next product release. (d) Tim Cook is sick of the rumor mill (that makes two of us). The analysts are with data like paparazzi to photo ops. (e) the content sales are starting to matter. In fact if you look at the numbers, this may be most easy to predict surprise...with 500 Million devices and more itunes reach into more countries--this ecosystem should start being even more important. (f) the ipad, ipod, iphone mixed lineup makes it harder to predict numbers. Perhaps that's why Oppenheimer is doing the switcheroo. (g) stock buy backs continue (they might have a field day tomorrow) and no word on dividend increase. It almost sounded like buy backs were more preferred.
Rising Dividends: My Dividend Growth Portfolio 2012-2013 Report [View article]
Nice article. Thank you. Would you ever consider an out of the money covered call strategy to supplement your dividends and growth? I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
Disney Showcases Apple's iWatch Potential [View article]
Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
Anyway let's consider that a lower cost phone in China, new wireless charging that allows all your devices to "cook" on a desktop area surface with no connections and some larger screen phones does. Not to say they'll hit it out of the park but it should get interesting in late 2013. The iWatch seems interesting but not nearly as much as a living room that doesn't suffer from "remote anxiety attacks" like mine.
Apple: Is Tim Cook The Next Steve Ballmer? [View article]
In defense of Apple: Apple is growing it's way into the enterprise, it dominates tablets, it has huge upscale phone business, it's PC business is growing while others are shrinking, it is growing it's content sales from apps and media, it is growing it's business in ad revenue, it has a global supply chain with a proven valueable retail store model. Apple has a deep moat and and pile of cash that the US government would envy. OK le'ts slam this stock and trade it at like 8 times forward earnings, despite the fact that it pays a dividend to boot. Growth slowing, but still strong and next generation productcs are particularly alluring. So what should we buy instead of Apple?
Google. Great company. But there is a small problem, it has nothing but search and ads, that's it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It is the worlds largest one trick pony...very impressive in size and capability but that thing ever comes up lane then down she comes. Google gets NOTHING for Android but the search they can generate from it. Android was a defensive measure. Still it's, Buy. Buy. Buy.
Amazaon. I just bought 12 items for my remodel project online and some at Home Depot. None came from Amazon...I went around them completely on price and got great service to boot with a broader selection. So what's my point? It's an online retailer...the barriers to entry there are not that great and the competition is everywhere. Why does AMZN sell at zillions times earnings despite the fact that it earns nothing? I know...they are investing in infrastructure...but the problem is they invest in basic stuff....there ecos system is bricks and mortar--hardly alive and vital. Just one more warehouse....ah that will do it......then we'll finally start making some money.
So my take on it is this: Cook is fine. Apple is fine. The humans are just at it again, a bunch of jackanapes on Wall St. can't pull down this stock price forever.
Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
1. Mac sales down due to late release of new published models.
2. increasing iOS units driving more iTunes and Apps purchases. This has to grow as time goes by...what happens when there 2 billion iOS device on the planet?
3. New openings in more countries--increasing the global footprint.
Bottom line is I see a sideways to small upside as the company chugs out more and better phone, pad and mac products. I'm holding for now. My guess is the post Jobs era will be to go after the enterprise more than the TV.
How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
Apple Doesn't Have A Problem, You Do [View article]
1. This last call where the expectations were essentially communicated to be a 50% reduction in growth by the CFO. He seemed to go out of his way to let it be known that growth is waning.
2. The market cap is so huge, I wonder if the stock has issues gaining steam just because it's so damn big. Add 500 points to Apple and you suck the oxygen out of this market. So when Apple is down then the market is up and visa versa...it's like sloshing money from one side to the other.
Apple's New Pet: The Black Swan [View article]
Mike: "Tim and Peter, it's Mike here, from Gottaclue Investments, thanks for taking my question. Do you really believe your Revenue growth will be cut in half starting next quarter as your guidance suggests on today's call, and if so, what do you attribute the slowing growth to?
Tim: "Well Mike thank you for that question....at the heart of it is that our screens are just simply awesome...we have best the best display screens in the world and ....we just think those guys out in China...they don't have enough, wan...or won or whatever it is...to pay for all these simply awesome, stunning and beautiful screens we're making. What do you think Peter?"
Peter: "Oh yea, the screens are cool Tim--you got that right. We're pretty sure that the revenue impacts from these stunning screens that are up channel, well they are best kept nebulous because it's all incredibly complex you know. Underlying this guidance is...."
Tim: "Peter sorry to interrupt but Mike, have you tried our new ear phones yet? They ergonomically contour to your ear and man I rock out to my Def Leapard all day long with these stunning and incredibly, awesome ear phones. Ohhhhhhh. Oh I see our time is up, See ya next quarter!"
Apple's New Pet: The Black Swan [View article]
You hit it right on. I listened to this thing live and was not pleased at the way Peter Oppenheimer seemed to think he owed nothing to nobody and Tim acted like a sales guy in the Apple store. (Not a slam I like those guys but--you get the point) I didn't do the math on my fingers quick enough so it was not obvious at the time that Opp was screaming to the world that growth projections have been cut in half. No, during the call I was too busy screaming at the phone: "I already own all your #*@) Tim, tell me what I need to know as an investor"
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
MSFT has bombed. The Surface is virtually devoid of users and same is true for WIndow Phone. Same may be said for the Nook and the Kindle, to a lesser degree. Samsung is another story but everything else is nothing more than wishful thinking.
The tablet/PC "click" has virtually no market, whereas the tablet market is massive and growing. PC sales are shrinking, especially the desktop. You sound like a paid ad from MSFT. Slice it any way you want, there is nothing material about any PC taking away from any tablet at this juncture.
I would agree the earnings call was poor...the guidance portion of it was especially lame and almost unprofessional on the part of Oppenheimer. Just not impressed with this call. You'd think he was an artist thumbing his nose at critics....artists do that kind of thing (even if they can't afford it) but a CFO is still a glorified bean counter, and he was not working for me the other day.
APPL has refreshed it's lineup well and added the mini, but the fundamental mission of the company has not changed. It's foot print has, the ability to sell more content globally is really encouraging. Still very profitable, devices are growing and the content sales are increasing. 1/10 the issues of MSFT but punished 10 times more.
Tim needs to expand the eco-system with a broader vision. TV, Home security, automobile...this is what we want to interface with.
Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
I still don't understand the brutal reaction to the earning report. The analysts are like tarot card readers; and if you don't hit the number the dart lands on they want to tank the stock. Feels like manipulation. The company performed brilliantly with all these new updates to the line and earnings growth is there. So lets tank the stock another 10%? Strange.
Other things I heard:
(a) Big screen phones are not coming. The phone is a one hand thing to Apple.
(b) TV vision is not ready to be discussed. Though the assertion that Apple TV is no longer an Apple hobby seems to at least tee up the ball for this.
(c) No indication of a change in the product update cycle like a 5S. No mention of next product release.
(d) Tim Cook is sick of the rumor mill (that makes two of us). The analysts are with data like paparazzi to photo ops.
(e) the content sales are starting to matter. In fact if you look at the numbers, this may be most easy to predict surprise...with 500 Million devices and more itunes reach into more countries--this ecosystem should start being even more important.
(f) the ipad, ipod, iphone mixed lineup makes it harder to predict numbers. Perhaps that's why Oppenheimer is doing the switcheroo.
(g) stock buy backs continue (they might have a field day tomorrow) and no word on dividend increase. It almost sounded like buy backs were more preferred.
Rising Dividends: My Dividend Growth Portfolio 2012-2013 Report [View article]