Tomcat101

11 Predictions for 2010

I agree.

The average American doesn't have a pot to pee in right now, even those that have a job.

And if people aren't buying houses now, rising mortgage rates will be the nail in the coffin of housing. You'll have home sales falling off the edge of a cliff at the same time as new foreclosures starts rising due to adjustible rate products resetting higher for existing homeowners.

On Dec 30 08:45 AM Wesley Mouch wrote:

> When I read analysis like this, I am lead to believe that economists
> think that the average American household is flush with cash, and
> is simply struggling with a lack of confidence.
>
> Although debt levels are wonderfully trending down at the household
> level, we are nowhere near ready for aggregate cash purchases of
> large assets, or 20% down payments on houses.
>
> Any perceived strength in housing right now is due to warp speed,
> ridiculous, unsustainable, shockingly low rates supplemented by federal
> reserve purchasing of MBS. If the ten year rises to the levels the
> author discusses, and the fed exits the mortgage market due inflationary
> pressure, what will the mortgage rate be, and who would lend to buyers
> with little down payment?
>
> The signs of strength are due to monetary policy, and when tightening
> occurs, the signs of strength will exit with the low rates.

Don’t Be Suckered by Stock Market Rally in 2010

I think that would be all 50 states if we did that...


On Dec 28 04:29 PM bbro wrote:

> Better yet give them the states with Obesity....

Don’t Be Suckered by Stock Market Rally in 2010

Give them Michigan. Nothing left there anyway. All the Michiganians have moved to the south now to try to unionize our factories and destroy our state economies.


On Dec 27 11:50 PM rob134 wrote:

> I would prefer we give them Texas.

Take These Unemployment Numbers with a Grain of Salt

Things are definitely getting better. I'm a HR Mgr. in North Carolina. We are hiring again after about a year of hiring only critical positions.

It's real.

With that said, I don't expect it to last once Obama hits us all with tax increases. Plus state and local tax increases. The health care fiasco. Crap and trade.

Once all that starts kicking in you can kiss the recovery goodbye and say hello to double dip recession.

Technical Analysis: Markets Heading Lower?

That line he drew is the same line that every other bear market eventually passed above... The infamous 50% retrace- oooooooh. Scary.

Holding all joking aside, I do follow the techinicals, but I don't live and die by them.

I think we head lower sometime in January with Obama's tax increases, state and local tax increases, and who knows what else he and Vice President Pelosi will come up with.

Throw in the health care fiasco passing and we won't even make it to January.

Throw in the cap and trade passing and we make a new low below 666, probably 550 or so. Maybe 150. Hard to say what a mess that would create for America.

That's change you can believe in.

Sentiment Overview: Insiders Decisively Bearish

I'm sure Obama is still in office. I'm sure I'm bearish until we vote his azz out.

The Next Leg of the Crisis: Unavoidable Catastrophe

#10. Your country disappears in a puff of smoke and makes a farting sound.


On Dec 16 07:25 PM User 36248 wrote:

> And what then? What is #10?

The Next Leg of the Crisis: Unavoidable Catastrophe

If you have food, the thugs will kill you for it. Remember Hurricane Katrina??? Remember the L.A. riots???

I think your objective would be to BE the thugs with the most ammo. Form an army with other thugs. Take other people's food, women and gold and just have a grand ole time.


On Dec 16 09:53 AM bagman432 wrote:

> Should the dollar collapse, America is the last place you'd want
> to be. My reasoning is simple. The citizens of most countries have
> experienced difficult times. Think of Russia not long ago where people
> would get on long lines and wait hours without knowing what was being
> sold. Think of China & India where huge portions of the populations
> are still living in poverty and those who've escaped still have the
> memories fresh in their minds. Only Americans have an incredible
> sense of entitlement with no concept of what it's like to really
> suffer when the necessities of life become unaffordable or disappear
> altogether. This is why I see a frightening future. Americans are
> not going to deal well when the sh*t hits the fan. I see riots, looting,
> and violence in and around most urban and suburban areas. Only those
> in America's rural areas will get by because they'll grow their own
> food and sell the overage to those few who have the gold and silver
> to pay for it.

Sentiment Overview: Bulls Gain Ground

This bull is about to get kicked hard in the groin by Barak Obama.


On Dec 14 08:41 AM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> 2 bearish comments, 2 neutral. This bull is still young and ready
> and able to scale the wall of worry.

Sentiment Overview: Bulls Gain Ground

Stick a fork in this rally- it's just about done.

If you're in already, start thinking about taking some off the table. The top will be in early Jan., then we head south till mid. March. From there will depend on how the health care and cap and trade fiascos are moving along in congress.

If you're not in yet, sit on your cash and be patient.

Economic Indicators Suggest Investing Caution

Some other things that could easily bitch slap and body slam the fragile consumers:

1. Higher gas prices.
2. Higher taxes (not just for the rich either). Fed., State, Local.
3. Cap & Trade doubles our power bills.
4. Health care costs more for everyone when we all chip in to pay for those who don't want to work for a living and the illegal aliens.

Change we can believe in.

Next year should be interesting.


On Dec 08 07:46 AM MarketGuy wrote:

> I'd like to add the impending mortgage resets about to hit as well.
> That truly isn't a shoe to drop, but rather a large boot to drop.
> Watch for auto repossessions (a cash for clunkers unintended consequence)
> as well as rising defaults from the mortgage assistance "program".

Unemployment Falls to 10%, But Obscures Negative Trends

Don't forget tax increases next year, and not just for the rich. And we all get to pay for people that don't want to work and illegal aliens to have health insurance. And our power bills double if the cap and trade passes. And gas goes to $4-$5/gal if the dollar keeps falling.

It's hard to see next year being a good one.


On Dec 07 12:48 AM Up Yours SP500 wrote:

> Agree 100%. The second dip in this recession starts in January and
> here's how it happens:
>
> 1. Retail sales are dismal, leading to more bankruptcies in retail.
>
> 2. More jobs are lost as a result.
> 3. Commercial real estate shopping centers can't make payments on
> their loans since businesses are closing.
> 4. A second stimulus will be needed, leading to further decline in
> the dollar. China, India, Russia, and everyone else knows this, the
> U.S. just seems to be clueless.
> 5. Gold reaches new highs since widespread panic sets in the marketplace
> and there is no where to place your money to give a decent ROI.<br/>

Unemployment Falls to 10%, But Obscures Negative Trends

I just got back from a southern Virginia mall and Wal-Mart.

Lots of shoppers in Belk, Aeropostle, PacSun, Gamestop, and Rack Room Shoes. Aeropostle was particularly busy. I'm thinking about buying some (ARO) on the recent big dip it's had. You hear lots of gloom and doom about all the billions and billions of devastated, crushed, poor, unemployed teens in America- I say that's B.S. The teens were buying freely today. I don't know if they are working or just milking mom and dad for the money or selling crack, but they have money and they are shopping at ARO and PSUN.

Wal-Mart was busy, but not overly crowded for a Sunday. Not sure what to make of that.


On Dec 06 12:46 PM 401KMAN wrote:

> Go to any Mall and see how many people are walking back to their
> cars with huge shopping bags of gifts. I went to two high-end places
> yesterday (a high-end mall and Cabela's) and I did not see anyone
> walking out with armfuls of gifts.
>
> At Cabela's , it seemed like there were more people working there
> than shoppers in the store.
>
> In both the mall and Cabela's, you would think that there would be
> a lot more shoppers on a clear Saturday night a couple of weeks before
> Christmas.
>
> Let's wait until January to see how great the economy is measuring
> both retail sales as well as new job and unemployment numbers.

Unemployment Falls to 10%, But Obscures Negative Trends

Some companies are beginning to hire again. It's for real. My company is hiring again. Full-time, permanent positions- not just seasonal workers at dept. stores.


On Dec 06 09:59 AM Shang Liu wrote:

> Agreed, the numbers are being manipulated. The BLS is not telling
> the whole story.

Employment Up, Equities Down: What's Next?

100% U.S. citizens. It's a requirement.

I often wonder how many illegal immigrants are milking our unemployment system and inflating the numbers when they shouldn't even be here to begin with.


On Dec 05 03:21 PM JAMES CARLINI wrote:

> To the HR manager who was saying he is hiring: Are you hiring US
> Citizens for all those positions?? If so, that's great. If not --------
>
>
> No one seems to talk about uncontrolled immigration and the deluge
> of labor (both skilled and semi-skilled) that has come into this
> country and has overstayed Visas.
>
> Some estimate that there are 20,000,000 people are still here even
> those their visas have expired.
>
> If they have overestimated that by 400% that is STILL 5,000,000 jobs
> that could be had by people who are out-of-work or under-employed.
> That would make a HUGE dent in the de-stabilization of middle-class
> America.
>
> No new laws have to be enacted. No stimulus money has to be spent.
>
>
> All the government has to do is what they should have been doing
> for years - enforcing laws that are already on the books and paying
> attention to expired Visas. Any bureaucrat that says that can't be
> done should lose his or her job immediately because they are not
> doing their job.
>
> The stereotype that there is a shortage of critically-skilled workers
> in this country is as BIG a lie as the one stating that all the jobs
> that are held by illegal immigrants are ones Americans would not
> want.
>
> Read this before you say everything is getting better:
> republicans.judiciary....