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grunlowen

grunlowen
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  • Friday Follies: Greece Job [View article]
    I wish Ron Paul had a better chance, but he speaks too much truth and not enough political you know what. (As a side note, I was born in South Texas, and he was the doc who delivered me).

    Just read an UK article that summed up the Euro mess. I'll be curious to see when Italy becomes the focus, especially since the Chinese have basically laughed off funding the 'special vehicle'.
    http://bit.ly/uH3kpu
    Nov 5 04:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sign Of A Bear Market [View article]
    I just looked at the Dow chart, and yes, November was the time to buy. The big sell of was in October. Maybe the author could clarify (Sept?).
    Nov 4 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Week Of Historic Reckoning [View article]
    Very Funny!

    Quote:
    Earn a 5% return and risk a 100% loss! And here's an added special bonus: The eternal hatred of millions of coddled Europeans that will blame you when you demand payment of your investment! Take advantage of this incredible opportunity while supplies still last!

    I bought some SDS (ultra short S&P) on Friday. Looks like the news from Europe this weekend could make this a good bet. Not sure if I'll hold it past Wed though.
    Oct 23 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While long-term damage from the BP spill is "unknowable" only three months after the blowout, it looks increasingly like the "greater environmental catastrophe in U.S. history" talk was exaggerated. Or is it a government cover-up?  [View news story]
    I have watched a TON of news on the spill over the last few months, and all along the professor-types have said that the oil will dissipate in a matter of months. A few tar ball will stick around, but there won't be that many of them because of the dispersants. The real issue it the unknowns to the ecosystem, but they are just that - unknowns. And the professor-types would also point out that 'hydrocarbons' naturally seep into the Gulf year round, just not in such a concentrated manner.

    Nature will recover quickly. That wasn't a great story a few weeks back, but it will be in the months ahead. Who knows how much it will help BP though.
    Jul 30 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the BP Oil Spill Destroy the Company? [View article]
    That is incorrect. The fine is $1100/barrel, but the fine can be raised to a MAXIMUM of $4300 if a federal judge rules that there has been gross negligence. So, if the spill were to stop today, the fine would be around 300M to a max of 1.2B.
    May 27 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil companies' liabilities for catastrophic events would rise under legislation being sent by Obama to Capitol Hill. The current cap is $75M, but officials say they don't have a "ballpark" figure and will work with Congress on a new limit. The bill would apply retroactively to BP (BP -0.5%).  [View news story]
    So I just bought some Oct call options on BP with the stock at around 48.5. My thinking is that the 5 to 15 billion that BP will PROBABLY be liable for is already factored into the stock price (it had lost 20b or so in market cap). Basically all the bad news that has and that might come out is already reflected in the price. If any good news comes out (like the well is sealed and/or the cleanup will cost less than expected) then the stock should shot back up to between 55 and 60.

    If I sound like I am on drugs, please let me know.
    May 12 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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