turtle1663

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

Investment is about managing probabilities & risk and has nothing to do with predicting anything!


On Nov 06 02:55 PM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Investment is nearly all about predicting the future: only psychological
> aspects have as much an effect as unbiased numbers, which is one
> good reason why it's so hard to get it right even as much as half
> the time.
>
> Nearly all, if not all, of us have a belief about the direction of
> a market or security, and even if we think we trade unemotionally
> on numbers or other criteria, our selection process is derived through
> human thoughts and feelings. Trading blindly on a system can lose
> money through overtrading or undertrading as well as getting it right
> or wrong, and backing hunches is not much different.
>
> In other words, there is no golden panacea or holy grail of investment.
> The most we can do is to beat the average, and by definition, many
> of us will have average performance. This is an art, not a science,
> and you've got to love doing it yourself to keep doing it. I do,
> and I know that if I had left it to others over the years I may have
> done better: but I would not have had nearly as much enjoyment and
> pleasure as I have had and continue to have from handling my own
> investments. Whatever happens and whatever the outcome, I am the
> master of my own destiny. And that is worth a lot.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

The aha! process lies at the heart of price change. For instance, consider the series: OTTFFSSE. What is the next letter? This puzzle creates tension - until you see the first letters of the ordinal numbers - one, two. Aha! you say. A lot happens during an aha. The puzzle dies and the tension dissipates. A societal aha! drives price. Read the newspapers and the news magazines during a major move. At first, no one gets why the move is happening. There's a lot of confusion. Part of the move's way up, some people get it. At the end, everybody gets it. The tension is resolved and the move ends.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

We know that prices move up and down. They always have and they always will. My theory is that behind these major movements is an irresistible force. That is all one needs to know. It is not well to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements. You risk the danger of clouding your mind with non-essentials. Just recognize that the movement is there and take advantage of it by steering your speculative ship along with the tide. Do not argue with the condition, and most of all, do not try to combat it.
JL

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

Global Enslavement
www.republicmagazine.c.../

Financial game plan

1. crash the market (2008, early 2009)

2. devalue the dollar (ongoing 2009)

3. appreciate gold (ongoing 2009)

4. stage a big ramp in the market to tease in the sheeple (2009, ?)

5. keep devaluing the dollar in order to [ see 4 ] (ongoing)

6. give out the option to have gold as margin collateral (Announced today)

U.S.-based clearing house CME Group Inc. (CME) will allow physical gold to
be used as collateral for margin requirements on all exchange products, a
spokesman said Monday.

The new global policy is effective Oct. 19 in accordance with a member's
notice issued late Friday, said spokesman Jeremy Hughes in London.

Clearing member firms will be allowed to post up to a maximum of $200
million worth of gold as collateral to cover performance bond, or margin,
requirements, Hughes said.

The gold will be held at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM) bank in London.

7. keep 5,2 and 4 in order to

8. get as much gold as possible

9. crash the market, take gold

10. kill the dollar

11. price gold in SDRs

12. sell gold back to the sheeple with a 200% premium

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

We know that prices move up and down. They always have and they always will. My theory is that behind these major movements is an irresistible force. That is all one needs to know. It is not well to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements. You risk the danger of clouding your mind with non-essentials. Just recognize that the movement is there and take advantage of it by steering your speculative ship along with the tide. Do not argue with the condition, and most of all, do not try to combat it.
JL

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Find the similarities...

Iceland goes bankrupt

That’s an amazing sentence: Iceland goes bankrupt. But that’s exactly what happened yesterday. That’s a clear sign that the global financial crisis is entering a new and vastly more dangerous phase.

What ‘bankrupt’ means is just that: The country cannot pay back its external debts, and the Icelandic currency, the krona, has become essentially valueless in the rest of the world. That means the country can no longer pay for imports.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

It is not about left or right anymore and has never been. Left and right have been created to divide the public. It seems to make no difference whether the Republicans or the Democrats are in power. Service, to the country, for many of these politicians has been replaced by a pure unadulterated lust for power by both sides who are willing to do anything to achieve their goals. They have, for many years now, fostered division between the electorate to their own purposes. The long repeated pledge "for the good of the country" has long since disappeared from our vocabulary. The attempts at division now are so blatant they are out of all proportion. It is time we stood up and exposed these people for what, and who, they are, identify the worst, of the lot, publicly, and remove them from office at the first opportunity. Perhaps that will get their attention.

The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling

According to the controlled media these are the world´s biggest holders of gold reserves: www.cnbc.com/id/33242464

The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling

Actually I carry a $100 monopoly bill in my wallet for when I discuss monetary issues with people, I would argue that it is actually more valuable than the "Federal" Reserve Note because Parker Bros does not have 11 Trillion in debt looming over them!
And that simply makes the case for Gold!

Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?

Actually I carry a $100 monopoly bill in my wallet for when I discuss monetary issues with people, I would argue that it is actually more valuable than the "Federal" Reserve Note because Parker Bros does not have 11 Trillion in debt looming over them!
And that simply makes the case for Gold!

Stay Away from AIG - Barron's

Trading these stocks is trading the U.S. Government. If you believe they (the goverment) will come out of this mess then these shares will survive and you do well. However, it is my opinion that the U.S. is bankrupt and that we have seen the end of capitalism as we know it.
The government and all U.S. taxpayers are loaded with dept in a scheme engineered by the FED and other (central) banks.
You may do well being long these stocks but you better have an exit strategy as exits are far more important then entries. Maybe ask Bernanky wankie to share his exit strategy!!

Bankruptcies of Large U.S. Corporations Soar

www.youtube.com/watch?...

Dollar's Purchasing Power Annihilated - The Chart They Don't Want You to See

Hey Obama, looking for Tax Evadors???

THE FED IS A PRIVATE ORGANISATION BUT YET PAYS NO TAXES.

endthefed.us

At the same time end inflation-deflation, bust and boom, to much tax, modern slavery, money out of thin air, ,,,,,,,,,,

$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)

www.youtube.com/watch?...

Gold Is Losing Its Luster

Gold has been in a nice trend. Some big money has been made.

Of course as any good trend follower knows, if a trend arrives you ride it. Unfortunately, the Wall Street press must attempt to explain 'why' a move has happened or offer some type of prediction for the future. For example, these excerpts from the Bloomberg article Gold May Extend Longest Rally This Year on Inflation Concerns are plain confusing when it comes to actually using any of the advice to make money:

- 'We're going to see elevated inflation trends over the short term. A lot of the hedge funds are selling crude oil and getting into gold.'

- 'Bloomberg's survey has correctly forecast gold's direction in 43 of 76 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.'

- 'Gold will continue to march higher over the next several weeks, if not months.'

- 'U.S. consumers are beginning to see $60 oil and $3 gasoline drive up prices across the board, and this will eat into their disposable income. As the picture gets gloomier for the U.S. economy, this will fuel the demand for gold as a neutral currency and hedge against inflation.'

- 'I won't buy at these levels. If the market dips down to $468, $465, I will buy.'

Put it this way, if a bunch of hedge funds are selling crude oil and buying gold, what do you do EXACTLY? And if a forecast of direction is right 57% of the time, what are we talking about exactly? How far or long does the 'direction' have to advance to be part of the so-called accurate forecast? Then we have the comment by the guy not buying at 'this' price level. Does that mean buying 'dips' is wise? Can you define for me the term 'dip' in mathematical terms?

These kinds of articles from Bloomberg, Yahoo, etc. appear every day. They are useless. A healthy dose of critical thinking applied over 5 minutes raises even more red flags than my few concerns. Isn't there another way to approach it? Yes.

Do you read these excerpts and immediately jump up knowing when to buy or sell exactly? Do you hear these comments and know how much to buy or sell short given your risk tolerance and capital on hand? Do you have expectations that those shouting to buy gold will come knocking on your door when its time to sell?

These fundamental blather articles might make those quoted sound smart and knowledgeable, but there is simply no precision when it comes to the big questions. How much? When do I exit? How do I know when to exit with a loss or gain?

An even better question: how can we know the top? A great trend follower, tackles that very issue in his September 2005 commentary:

'The same problem exists with the exit point on the trade. Because MT does not try and find the market tops, there will always be some give back or price concession from the maximum. Note that if we tried to get out before the maximum, there will still be a trading cost. It would be the opportunity cost of not participating in the trade as it moves to the maximum. We view that this cost is higher than the cost of exiting after the high. The reason is simple. We cannot tell when or where the maximum price will occur.'

Do you see how more pragmatic and reasonable that sounds as compared to the analysts and gurus?

But even if you can wrap your arms around sound decision-making in an uncertain world, most people can't escape the constant drumbeat. Consider this excerpt from the USA Today in early October:

'Two devastating hurricanes. Slow government response. Sixteen-hour, 200-mile traffic jams of fleeing residents. Levees breached. Levees breached - again. Tens of thousands displaced. Mold everywhere. Elderly patients drowning in nursing homes. But that's not all. A sideways stock market. Rising interest rates. A barrel of oil at $67. Gas over $3 a gallon. Consumer confidence down. It's no wonder American investors are feeling vulnerable.'

Wow. If I listened hard to this kind of stuff, I should just quit. The game sounds like it is over. Of course, a good many people read this and did nothing except retreat in fear.

Great traders, however, relish uncertainty. They know that the unpredictable is where the big bucks are located. They harness their fears. The great ones don't read the doom and gloom in the USA Today. The great traders were prepared for the gold move long before it started. They had a plan ready before the trend ever hit the radar screen.

You always have a choice: enter a market like gold with a plan or listen to the fundamental prophets who talk about buying on 'dips'