Albertarocks

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Well I made it back safely and have gotten some much needed rest. Now that I've had a bit of time to catch up, and after reading what I've been reading, I've decided that this will be my last post on Seeking Alpha. I refuse to participate any further when one person insists on twisting my words time after time into something diabolical and distorted simply to suit her sick agenda... at my expense. It's extremely unfair and not something I will participate in any further. The damage is done. It is not reparable. It's become clear that no matter what I write, it will simply turn into fuel for another warrantless attack. Who among you would continue in such a dangerous and destructive atmosphere? I dare say none. Nobody likes to hang around where there is such a campaign of hatred, even though it's unjustified.

As I've detailed in past posts, which would be clear to those who've bothered to read them, my opinion is that the name given to the rare market event known as the Hindenberg Omen was far too sensationalistic, because although it's always an ominous warning, it's also often a precursor to not much more than a very mild event. For that reason, I prefer to refer to the Hindenberg Omen as "HO". It's a shorthand that we've all gotten used to, and when I or one of you type "HO", we know what we're referring to. It's the same as "LOL", and nothing more.

But then I was accused of typing "HO" as a thinly disguised derogatory comment directed toward Freya. That was just so unbelievable that if I hadn't become aware of her nature, I'd have honestly thought she was joking. Clearly she wants to push that agenda, so why do I bother? Anybody who's in that much need of attention, or in such need of drama in their life that they need to go those lengths, at the expense of another human being, is not somebody I want in my world.

She's gone to the trouble to make 20 recent comments aimed at trashing the reputation of Albertarocks with hair-brained concepts that are nothing more than creations of an overblown ego and a vivid attention seeking imagination. How many of those posts have I responded to? ZERO! How many times have I fallen for her constant baiting? ZERO! Believe me folks, I'm a warrior you'd be proud of. But as all of you with military experience know, it's best to "pick your battles". This is not any battle I'm willing to waste my time on. Freya claimed that she'd "offered a truce". There is no such thing as a truce when there is a war waging with only one combatant. What I'm seeing here is a single-participant back alley cat fight where one deranged cat is fighting with itself.

Onto another quick topic. Maya made the following suggestion: "Suggestion A: Be a little more sympathetic to race, religion and sex."

Never once have I said anything that could be considered as even close to crossing those boundaries. I live in Calgary for cryin' out loud, one of the most racially diverse cities in existence. My very dear friends come from every color, nationality and creed known. I even enjoyed Chinese New Year in the home of a Chinese family who speak very, very little English. They've come to cherish me, simply because I'm kind to them and have no racial biases. Their offer to me was a very deep sign of respect to yours truly. Needless to say, I was very honored by their gift. So I take extreme exception to accusations of somehow being racist. Extreme exception!

I've never, ever, made any comment about religion. I simply have no opinion, nor any right to express an opinion about another's religion. Why do you berate me for things I've not done? A person shouldn't believe everything they read. As a group of sharp investors, I know you know better than that.

Freya accused me of saying "when the females are gone". I went to the trouble of visiting all 57 pages of my comments, and using the search feature "control F", searched every single one of my 823 comments for any occasion where I might have typed the word "female". I think you can guess exactly how many times it came up. ZERO! I did the same thing for the word "gone". Nothing but innocent uses of that word, such as in, as soon as I'm finished typing this comment, I'm "gone". I challenge each of you to do the same, and then question Freya about why she falsely accused me of that and all the other ridiculous ideas. Ideas that only come from an devious and hateful mind.

I'm not going to waste my energy on this. I have enough important family matters and issues to take care of before the world catches fire.

Speaking of family matters, I'm saddened to hear of your mom Maya. I've been there already and have experienced what you're going through. It crushed my brothers, my sister and myself to see our mom suddenly and unexpectedly drop into the world of alzheimer's for the last year of her long life. She too had a fall, and unfortunately it broke her 83 year old hip. I had the worst 3 years of my life that mercifully came to a conclusion in year 2000, when I lost 6 family members including my mom, dad and little brother. 7 if I include my little dog "Auggie"... and I do include him. So it was 7.

Top Guns, my little brother and I would drive 3 hours every weekend to visit our mom on her "bed". We agonized together, cried together, shoulder to shoulder, seeking solace in the love we shared for her and for each other. Before she passed away, my brother took his own life after being prescribed "medication" to ward off depression. If any of you wonder why I get animated and emotional when it comes to drugs and big pharma perhaps you deserve that explanation. Some of you have detected (Maya was first lol) that I'm opinionated and beyond question a libertarian rebel, you're damned right. Big Pharma are murderers. That's what I meant when I stated that the H1N1 flu was a "farce". The flu itself is certainly real enough! What I meant was that it was created in a laboratory. All indications are that it was in the lab of James S. Robertson, Britain's leading micro-biologist of viruses. He's also the bastard who gives guidance to the WHO about whether or not to declare their level 6 conditions. Conflict of interest? Oh, I think so. I admit, I get violently angry at killers of humanity. Maybe that'll just be interpreted as a flaw in my character. I'll undoubtedly be accused of lying again about Robertson, so just Google it. I shamelessly reiterate it and if anybody doesn't like I don't give a damn. It's all a farce. The flu is real enough, but the true story behind it all is nothing short of eugenics in action. How does that warrant another attack by Gunship Freya? It doesn't. Jesus Christ, that makes me angry. This is where I'd normally insert the eff word.

I should never have used the full spelling of that word. I was bad and I admit it. And I sincerely apologize to all who were offended, both male and female. Why females only should be offended is beyond me. Males can equally be offended. But I certainly haven't been offended by some of the similar things I've seen written by others. Neither was Freya.

Which leads me to Swash's disclosure that he and I'd had a run in before. It's true as the day is long. I'd gone off on a tangent at the author who was extolling the virtues of the FED. I just went off my rocker because I see no virtues in the FED. Again, it was just another occasion when I went on the warpath about the FED and their real agenda (the same people who created the H1N1). Swash didn't argue with my point, instead he only defended the author, which is fair enough. I responded to Swash in courteous dialogue, he did the same, and we parted ways on good terms. I didn't even know it was our Swash at the time. I'm very glad I got to meet him later in this group venue and become friends... at least for a little while. Swash, you really are a good guy.

One last issue I should address. Maya, you've asked for my email address a couple of times and it was my full intention to give it to you. I quote what I said: "I will do it". But quite literally, it was only hours later when the violence started and I had to wait to see what in hell it was all about. When I saw what was going on, and knowing that all of you were exchanging email addresses, I had the very real fear that my email address would end up in the hands of one who was bent on the destruction of Albertarocks. Under those circumstances, not one of you would have followed through and disclosed your email address either. I'm sure that makes good sense to all of you. I wasn't lying to you Maya. Events simply warranted that I hold off.

Guns and Maya, I want to leave you on this positive note now. I know there is a god and although I don't know what form he takes, I DO know that he recognizes no particular religion. I know with certainty that he exists because of what he did for me when my children were born. Although it's not possible to bargain with god, I nonetheless made him a promise. It's a story I loved to tell my kids when they were little. And I can honestly say, it was a disclosure that resulted in the beautiful self esteem forming atmosphere where little superstars are born. I suggested to god that if he would give me the very best children he had in his basket... the very best ones available... that in return, I would be the very best dad for them that I could possibly be, without limits. That I would provide the very best guidance and the very best environment for them that I could, given my limited abilities and lack of experience as a father. He apparently accepted my offer, and I've held up my end of the bargain every step of the way.

My children, who for some reason Freya felt necessary to bring into one of her mindless attacks, are world calibre citizens of planet earth. In fact, if I told you who my daughter is, you'd have my real identity. I'll only say that she was a world class, Olympic calibre rower. Unfortunately, she suffered a very untimely back injury in monstrously heavy training that ultimately kept her out of the Olympics at Athens. She was guaranteed a ticket on the plane. That was very disappointing for her, and for all of us in her family, to say the least. But she's moved on and now has a stellar career consulting as an "information scientist" to the health care industry in Canada and the United States. My son... that poor kid need a break. He became a commercial pilot at age 21 and then had his eyes distort slightly at age 22. It's not all that serious a condition but enough to ruin a young pilot's career. It's called Karatoconus. And recently, as some of you know, he catastrophically destroyed his knee. Dancing on the ice to entertain his beautiful girlfriend of all things. And at a solid muscular 6'1", 222 lb. and 4 years of junior and high school football with 4 championships in a row, not an injury. Of all the innocent..... dang, between that knee and his eyes, that kid could use a little bit better luck these days. Oh well, he's a bright positive guy. He'll be fine. Handsome like his dad too.

On an interesting side note... his thigh from which his tendons were stripped became infected in spite of antibiotics. I'd given him a bottle of colloidal silver but he hadn't taken any because once he was immobilized he couldn't get to it. I went over to his home, got the silver to him, and within 24 hours, all pain disappeared and the infection seems to be gone. It has never returned and it's been a week now. Anyway, I tell you these things about my kids, because they are what god gave me simply because I asked him nicely... the two very best babies in his basket.

And that's the very same god I've spoken with today on your mom's behalf Maya... and on the behalf of David. Guns and Maya, god exists and he's already there with your loved ones. He told me so. Of his presence at this very moment in time, with Maya's mom and with Top Guns' relative, I have absolutely no doubt. I've seen the miracles he works and he's already there on the case. There is very real reason to have hope and to expect the best :-)

On the Hindenberg thingy, there's nothing to report. When it eventually triggers, it will be taken with a grain of salt anyway, possibly by myself as well, so really we're all just wasting our time here. A special thanks to John Lounsbury. We tried buddy!

Options Girl, you whom I respect very deeply, as a parting suggestion, you might want to take another look at the options on Osisko. It's just completed a fabulously shaped correction and looks to be headed much higher. I'm convinced enough to have a bought a load of Jan. $7.00 calls on it. With 600,000 ounces per year for the next 12 years in the Malartic project alone, and making money at $400 gold, their future is probably sound enough to consider. It also made a good move today and sports massive volumes over the past 4 days.

At the request of Eli, Albertarocks won't be nuked unless I give him the signal, but it will indeed just slip into oblivion. So I bid you all farewell and wish you all the very best of health and every success you could ever ask for. I consider myself to have been truly blessed for a short period in my life for having met you.


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I Think That the Dollar Slide is About to Accelerate, and...

>What I've read there is 1120 or so is a very big resistance point and, in fact, lots of other people seem to be flagging that, too. Of course, because the market's job is to f*ck with the maximum number of people possible, this thing will almost certainly top out at least 20 S&P points higher or lower than that.<

LMAO! Man, you sure have the same kind of thinking I do. Skeptical, logical, humorous, disillusionment at insanity of it all... yet it persists.

It turned out to be a green day after all, but on volume that just dropped off the face of the earth after the initial couple hours. So the declining volume pattern is still in tact while prices keep rising. A quick look at the trend line on the volume bars on the daily chart of the S&P shows that by Christmas week, average daily volume will be somewhere around 150 shares.

I almost barfed on my shoes when I heard Tiny Tim declare that a strong dollar is very important to him. The purposeful and wanton destruction of the dollar is nothing short of traitorous. Why he isn't already hanging by his nuts from a lamp post somewhere is beyond my comprehension.

I'm not giving up on the short side. As soon as I capitulate and go long, the market will crash. For years and years I single handedly controlled all of Canadian residential property prices. Every time I bought a home, the market crashed. When I finally sold it out of anger and frustration, the market doubled in the next two years. I must have done that 5 times in my lifetime. I eventually go so good at it, that when I sold my home, my friends went out and bought a second or third one. I made a lot of buddies rich over about a 20 year period.


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The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

On Nov 05 10:44 PM doubleguns wrote:

> Rocks, Drive carefully . Watch out for the moose, meese or any plural you wish to use. I am still curious about the HO and will be waiting to see its next occurrence and the effect if any.<

Thanks guns. Yes sir, I'll drive carefully. My eyes play tricks on me during night driving so I'm a little edgy about it.

Your interest alone is enough for me to keep updating here. I know Mark Bern likes what I write here, so for him as well, I'm happy to do it.

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

With the recent action taking the market up for three straight days, the only component included in the make-up of the HO which was threatening to invalidate it, has also turned up. So the HO is alive and well. There's nothing stopping it from giving a signal if conditions warrant. In fact the number of "new 52 week highs" has moved precisely into the territory required. It wouldn't really matter much if the HO did indeed flash a signal tomorrow or Monday and I was not available to let you know about it (due to an unexpected journey that I suddenly find myself facing), since the rules dictate that in order for the HO to be considered valid, it has to trip on two separate days which do not have to be consecutive.

I've already detailed the track record of the Hindenberg Omen and I have no personal opinion on it's validity. Validity is a matter of one's perception of its past record. As most of you know, I post this information out of interest only and at the invitation of John Lounsbury. I personally wouldn't act on the HO as I have a lot of other methods of coming to my own decisions which are much quicker to give me guidance. But it would be interesting simply to see what transpires at this time with the HO considering how rarely it occurs. Here are two different perspectives other than my own:
www.safehaven.com/arti...

seekingalpha.com/insta...

As with all technical analysis, there are believers and non-believers. As you can see, some people believe the HO is just a lot of voodoo. On the other hand, I think open minded individuals would recognize that it's real track record is good enough that it at least warrants observation. Some people believe that the technical indicator known as "bullish percentage" is nothing but nonsense. Others see value in such an indicator, recognizing, for example, the importance of knowing that in spite of the past 3 solid days of gains, the number of stocks participating in that move upward has dropped from 85% to 65%. For me personally, that's important to know. Unbelievably, some people consider it to be irrelevant. It appears to me that such people would simply rather not hear anything that might not fit with their notion of where the stock market is going.

As I'd mentioned in passing to some of you late last week, my son is temporarily immobile, with both legs having been operated on last week. Some ligaments from his right hamstring were removed and used to rebuild his left knee, so he's unable to walk for a few weeks. And as luck would have it, an emergency has arisen in his business operations in the oil patch. So I find myself answering his call for help and will be embarking on a rather important journey on his behalf which will require my driving from Alberta through the mountains to south central B.C., to northern B.C.,over to northern Alberta, then retracing that drive. I don't know how I'm going to survive 2800 miles in 4 days, but I did it in my younger days so I assume I can do it now. It's the night driving in the mountains in the winter that makes it rather daunting. Thankfully there's no snow yet. But as any of you know who live near or in the mountains, that can change overnight. If there's any consolation, I always enjoy the stunning beauty of British Columbia and western Alberta.

So God willing, I'll be back Tuesday and if anything interesting has happened with the HO, I'll post it here for those who are still interested. If all interest has ceased, my posts have ceased. Take care!

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Well this is what I was afraid of. Even by staying out of Ms. Freya's space and keeping myself tucked away in John's space for the most part, it follows me here.

So this particular insta has more or less been destroyed as far as its intended purpose is concerned.

I will only say this one time. Never once, not once, have I ever said anything that had anything other than the best of intentions. There was cerainly no such think included in any of my comments that had any sort of hidden "snideness"... that only a vivid imagination could conjure up. One time I said to Freya: "I have no clue where you're coming from with that." I meant it.

One time Freya left a comment that ended with ????

I thought she was saying: "Remember that one Albertarocks?" Where I come from, that's what ???? means. It means "do you remember?" It's rhetorical.

I had requested a week ago that SA nuke my account and surrender my space in the commenters list, as I am simply not willing to participate in a poisonous atmosphere. At the suggestion of Eli, who urged that I not make that request because of the time, effort and contributions I've expended, I've agreed to let the account stand but to let the account of Albertarocks just slip into oblivion. In Eli's wisdom, he advised that should I in the future regret nuking the account, it is irreversible. He would like me to have the option of returning to that account at some point in the future, should I have reason, but agreed to nuke it at my request. That made enough sense to me.

I've met more wonderful people here than I ever thought possible and I truly like 98% of you. That was a blessed and enjoyable benefit that I didn't see coming.

Out of loyalty to those who still care about, or enjoy reading about the HO, I will continue to post anything important should it arise. As of this evening, there's nothing to report of importance on that front.

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

On Nov 04 01:58 PM doubleguns wrote:

> Rocks does your realestate index include farm land?<

No, it's mainly based on residential and commercial space. The underlying indices are $DJUSRE and $RMZ

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

Try not to feel frustrated Swash. It took me so many years to get what little understanding I have today. The biggest problem I think I had was that at first, I didn't know why bond markets moved up or down. I had no interest in bonds when I was in my 30s so I paid them no attention. Then when I got into my 50s I got a good handle on the bigger picture, the global perspective, and it all started to make a lot more sense. Then when I got into my 60s I started smokin' dope and it all came together nicely. I could finally see clearly. When I got into my 80s I got married and lost all my dough again. When I got into my 90s I learned to read. Ever since then, I've been doin' real good.

But seriously, it takes time, but if you can get a handle on the relationships it really does make a lot of sense. Like what happens to the stock markets when the yields on treasuries becomes attractive, etc. Things like that will clear a lot of the smoke out of the way. Just my humble opinion.

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

On Nov 04 11:48 AM Swashbuckler wrote:

> I doubt ANY single indicator or method is infallible.<

You got that right. The day I find the holy grail, you'll be the first to know. lol

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

No Swash old buddy. I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. I agree with the others who say that a strong stock market is due to a weaker dollar. Because the dollar is weakening, we're see the prices of items, other than the stock market, like commodities and metals surge in value as well .

What the chart is showing is that unless by some magic the "inverse" relationship somehow suddenly becomes disconnected, then if the dollar rises over the next month, stocks "will" drop. I'm not suggesting the chart has any predictive value. It's only showing a relationship that as of this moment in time, does indeed exist.

I can't imagine what would cause the dollar and stocks to both rise together until the economy strengthens considerably. What would cause them to both drop together at the same time would be a more nasty situation. It could only happen I guess if the FED were to allow the dollar to drop in value and the stock markets were falling for some other reason, maybe someone admitting that the economy is weaker than people have been told, or maybe an overall lack of confidence. I don't know for sure Swash. I'm just trying to learn something every day like H.T.L :-)

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

On Nov 04 12:18 PM Swashbuckler wrote:

> I would not place too much confidence in the validity of that inverse correlation of the USD and the S&amp;P shown in the chart. That relationship is only valid since 2003, and was in fact directly opposite prior to that. I commented elsewhere about this chart.<

Yeah, that's why I think the chart is important Swash. Something has clearly changed since 2003. I contend that the dollar and the markets move together, both upwards, when the economy is truly strong. The fact that they are moving in inverse has been pretty much locked since 2006. I don't think there's any question about the validity since it's not predicting anything. It's just showing history. Maybe something will change that allows thr relationship to once again return to where both stocks and dollars are moving in the same direction.

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

It would help if I'd attached it I guess.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

On Nov 04 11:34 AM Mayascribe wrote:

> Rocks: I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, that the dollar is still worth more than it was at the end of Oct 08. Yet gold is way up. Long term screwyness?<

Here's that chart again buddy that give a nice picture of the dollar. Relative to a basket of other currencies as measured in the US Dollar Index, the dollar is weaker than it was at the end of '08. My feeling is that the dollar is due for a pretty hefty bounce but if it happens I can't see it reaching much more than perhaps .82 on this index. Relative to oil and most commodities, the dollar is weaker as well.

BTW, I'm trying my damnedest to get out of SA on my own terms, before my character assassination is complete. I've been trying for nearly a week now, but Eli hasn't responded yet.

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

Yes I have Swash, and I agree totally that EW theory can throw some real bad signals. That's why it represents perhaps 20% of everything I look at. So when I see a pattern like this that doesn't make any sense, I certainly have to question its validity. I thought if someone had a good reason why real estate prices should surge, it might all make sense, but so far I think I have to ignore the pattern. It sounds like you probably agree?

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

And so would gold and everything else priced in American dollars. I'd be fuck'd with that one, but that's beside the point. I've heard rumblings about that idea of the dollar being devalued in one fall swoop like that, and I've heard rumors about a "bankers' holiday" and other weird stuff. Bond holders would be screwed too, no? So I don't see how they can do such a thing YH. I absolutely believe something very strange is in the works, but I don't know what it is. Another "event"? An "event" such as you propose?

I'm also 100% convinced that the entire flu farce is being used as a massive distraction. I think the whores who own the FED's owners are actually scared of something.

Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade

Hey guys, I've come across a phenomenon that has me absolutely mystified. I'd sure like your take on it. I can see patterns in the charts of nearly every index you could care to name, and they all point to the same conclusion. Let's assume that the conclusion that every practitioner of EW theory has come to is wrong or at least a moot point. Let's ignore their conclusions for now. Here's what I'm seeing:

The only index that is developing a pattern that is so out of whack with the others is the real estate indexes. As of today, the pattern in their charts is suggesting prices could really take off upward. I find that impossible to believe and totally illogical. Nonetheless, that's what the charts are suggesting. There's no doubt about it, when searching for wave patterns, they only become truly visible once the price action is in the past. In real time, EW theory can throw some real head fakes and red herrings.

Can any of you envision any scenario that would give credence to the notion of real estate values taking off upward? I can't. It's just not logical, but the chart is so out of whack with the other indexes, I just have to beg the question.

Any ideas?