Albertarocks's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/357305/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-20163222 20163222 Wed, 19 Jun 2013 17:56:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-20158312 20158312 Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:48:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19954832 19954832
Had the HO gone off it would of course have just been another redundant signal. But the message is the same... with these phoney rallies the market internals are actually deteriorating at a rather alarming rate. As Forrest Gump said: "To each, his own caca smells sweet. Do not be fooled by this."]]> Thu, 13 Jun 2013 16:59:53 -0400
Had the HO gone off it would of course have just been another redundant signal. But the message is the same... with these phoney rallies the market internals are actually deteriorating at a rather alarming rate. As Forrest Gump said: "To each, his own caca smells sweet. Do not be fooled by this."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19863552 19863552 Tue, 11 Jun 2013 17:41:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19845262 19845262
It's actually possible that there might only be a single signal without any confirmation in the form of a second signal, and yet the market could decline any amount... 20%, 30%. And the next time we could theoretically see 6 or 7 HO signals and the market only falls by a small amount, like 5% for example.

A good analogy would be a pressure gauge on a boiler. Once it goes into the red it's saying "there's likely to be an explosion". But that gauge has no way of giving advice about how big that explosion might be... just that the odds are high that there is going to be one. Maybe just a seam on that boiler gives way and there's a heck of a lot of 'bleeding off'. In that case the 'explosion' might only be 3 or 4%.]]> Tue, 11 Jun 2013 11:48:02 -0400
It's actually possible that there might only be a single signal without any confirmation in the form of a second signal, and yet the market could decline any amount... 20%, 30%. And the next time we could theoretically see 6 or 7 HO signals and the market only falls by a small amount, like 5% for example.

A good analogy would be a pressure gauge on a boiler. Once it goes into the red it's saying "there's likely to be an explosion". But that gauge has no way of giving advice about how big that explosion might be... just that the odds are high that there is going to be one. Maybe just a seam on that boiler gives way and there's a heck of a lot of 'bleeding off'. In that case the 'explosion' might only be 3 or 4%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19811622 19811622 Mon, 10 Jun 2013 16:50:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19687771 19687771 http://bit.ly/19McBeW]]> Thu, 06 Jun 2013 14:25:54 -0400 http://bit.ly/19McBeW]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19634041 19634041 http://on.wsj.com/ZOEnWt

Do you have any idea how rewarding I find it that Mr. Meikka confirms that the only two signals recently are the ones I reported on. HOOWAA!

Unfortunately though, that article is a debunking article cleverly disguised as an interesting human interest story. Just read the nonsense Adam Grimey said.]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 10:34:34 -0400 http://on.wsj.com/ZOEnWt

Do you have any idea how rewarding I find it that Mr. Meikka confirms that the only two signals recently are the ones I reported on. HOOWAA!

Unfortunately though, that article is a debunking article cleverly disguised as an interesting human interest story. Just read the nonsense Adam Grimey said.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19632861 19632861
You know, I even commented to a friend on my own blog the other day that the only reason I still write about the HO at all is "out of respect for my old friends over at S.A."

It's true... if it weren't for you people who read this insta, I would have quit writing about the HO a few years ago. In fact, I wouldn't even have started writing about it if J.L. hadn't said that he always wanted to know "somebody who knew about the HO", or something to that effect. I started commenting on it only because John wrote the first chapter (and several others thereafter) on the HO, and then he just handed the ball off to me. It's John we should thank really. Man, that was about 4 years ago. Who could have known it would run this long?

In any case, on the bright side... the odds are 77% that the big crash "is not" going to happen. And the odds that we'll see a pullback no larger than 8-10% are 50/50. Unfortunately, at some point in time there is a great reckoning that's going to have to happen. I don't know any better than the next guy whether or not we're there at this time. But I think we all have to recognize that at some point in time we're going to have to deal with history face to face. Some day the market top is truly going to be behind us where it will stay for years and years because whether we want to admit it or not, inflation (money creation) just can't go on forever. I have no idea whether we're there yet or not. Maybe another year into the future? That's entirely possible.

I thank you as well my friends. You've always been here to read this crap, lol.]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 10:08:21 -0400
You know, I even commented to a friend on my own blog the other day that the only reason I still write about the HO at all is "out of respect for my old friends over at S.A."

It's true... if it weren't for you people who read this insta, I would have quit writing about the HO a few years ago. In fact, I wouldn't even have started writing about it if J.L. hadn't said that he always wanted to know "somebody who knew about the HO", or something to that effect. I started commenting on it only because John wrote the first chapter (and several others thereafter) on the HO, and then he just handed the ball off to me. It's John we should thank really. Man, that was about 4 years ago. Who could have known it would run this long?

In any case, on the bright side... the odds are 77% that the big crash "is not" going to happen. And the odds that we'll see a pullback no larger than 8-10% are 50/50. Unfortunately, at some point in time there is a great reckoning that's going to have to happen. I don't know any better than the next guy whether or not we're there at this time. But I think we all have to recognize that at some point in time we're going to have to deal with history face to face. Some day the market top is truly going to be behind us where it will stay for years and years because whether we want to admit it or not, inflation (money creation) just can't go on forever. I have no idea whether we're there yet or not. Maybe another year into the future? That's entirely possible.

I thank you as well my friends. You've always been here to read this crap, lol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19631931 19631931
I've got a real sense that you're probably right. The central banks are absolutely determined not to lose control and the only way the markets are going to fully crash is if they have lost control. I just don't get the sense that we're there yet.

With all the respect for you that I can muster, I don't think the dividend situation would make a hill of beans of difference when "the time comes". "The" crash would be for reasons so bad that most of us couldn't even contemplate the final result. I just don't think we're there yet. But some day, when the crash finally 'does' happen, we would end up with dividends a whole lot "more juicier" but stocks would plummet anyway. There would sure be some great buys at the bottom, that's for darned sure... as long as the corporations could still pay big dividends after a 'severe' pullback.

Even just looking at the charts, and at the near parabolic pattern to a lot of them, I just don't see a top yet to be honest. I'm thinking about the old saying that "tops are a process, bottoms are an event". But then I look at a chart of the Nikkei and I can envision a top in that market that is "an event". So hard to know man, but I'm just not envisioning the big crash coming out of this particular HO event.]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 09:49:05 -0400
I've got a real sense that you're probably right. The central banks are absolutely determined not to lose control and the only way the markets are going to fully crash is if they have lost control. I just don't get the sense that we're there yet.

With all the respect for you that I can muster, I don't think the dividend situation would make a hill of beans of difference when "the time comes". "The" crash would be for reasons so bad that most of us couldn't even contemplate the final result. I just don't think we're there yet. But some day, when the crash finally 'does' happen, we would end up with dividends a whole lot "more juicier" but stocks would plummet anyway. There would sure be some great buys at the bottom, that's for darned sure... as long as the corporations could still pay big dividends after a 'severe' pullback.

Even just looking at the charts, and at the near parabolic pattern to a lot of them, I just don't see a top yet to be honest. I'm thinking about the old saying that "tops are a process, bottoms are an event". But then I look at a chart of the Nikkei and I can envision a top in that market that is "an event". So hard to know man, but I'm just not envisioning the big crash coming out of this particular HO event.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19608521 19608521
EDIT: Here's a link to that article for those interested.
http://tinyurl.com/n8j...]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 15:52:10 -0400
EDIT: Here's a link to that article for those interested.
http://tinyurl.com/n8j...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19608211 19608211
:-)]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 15:44:45 -0400
:-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19607111 19607111
It would really tick me off if it falls short because surely one of the other analysts out there will declare that it happened. What's a guy to do? Do we adhere to the rules so strictly that we ignore such an incredibly near miss? Or do we call it? After all, there is so much subjectivity connected with the argument about the big increase in bond funds and ETFs over the past few years that one could argue that that subjectivity alone is a greater factor than missing by just one or two new highs. Geez... what a nuisance. I'm seriously torn about what to do here. Hopefully the market will just shove the new highs up to 90 and I won't have to worry about it.

Amazingly, the Nasdaq is looking stupidly strong with 136 new highs and only 13 new lows. Gawd almighty, what in hell is going on here? Those numbers for the $NDX have been stuck there for a long time. I'm wondering if they are the numbers from yesterday? Doesn't matter really... we're not focusing on the $NDX anyway. Just an interesting observation.]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 15:19:26 -0400
It would really tick me off if it falls short because surely one of the other analysts out there will declare that it happened. What's a guy to do? Do we adhere to the rules so strictly that we ignore such an incredibly near miss? Or do we call it? After all, there is so much subjectivity connected with the argument about the big increase in bond funds and ETFs over the past few years that one could argue that that subjectivity alone is a greater factor than missing by just one or two new highs. Geez... what a nuisance. I'm seriously torn about what to do here. Hopefully the market will just shove the new highs up to 90 and I won't have to worry about it.

Amazingly, the Nasdaq is looking stupidly strong with 136 new highs and only 13 new lows. Gawd almighty, what in hell is going on here? Those numbers for the $NDX have been stuck there for a long time. I'm wondering if they are the numbers from yesterday? Doesn't matter really... we're not focusing on the $NDX anyway. Just an interesting observation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19603811 19603811
EDIT: Here they are... 81 now and counting. But now 86 are required, lol.]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 14:13:04 -0400
EDIT: Here they are... 81 now and counting. But now 86 are required, lol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19599141 19599141
If it happens, the discussion about whether or not the recent signal of May 31st was the second signal that confirmed the April 15th signal will become a moot point, because at the end of today we will have the second HO signal in 4 calendar days. Today's signal will therefore give us only the second "official HO signal" since August of 2010. In other words "it's game on" and we're about to get a rather rare opportunity to see if the HO still works in the face of central bank intervention. I honestly don't know what to think about that.]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 12:18:21 -0400
If it happens, the discussion about whether or not the recent signal of May 31st was the second signal that confirmed the April 15th signal will become a moot point, because at the end of today we will have the second HO signal in 4 calendar days. Today's signal will therefore give us only the second "official HO signal" since August of 2010. In other words "it's game on" and we're about to get a rather rare opportunity to see if the HO still works in the face of central bank intervention. I honestly don't know what to think about that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19568921 19568921 Mon, 03 Jun 2013 16:24:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19564621 19564621 Mon, 03 Jun 2013 14:59:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19560821 19560821 Mon, 03 Jun 2013 13:30:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19559541 19559541 Mon, 03 Jun 2013 12:55:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19559321 19559321
new highs - 39
new lows - 230

We could still get another legit signal today if the market were to bounce sufficiently and inspire about 48 new highs. That wouldn't be difficult I don't think... if the market were to burst higher.]]> Mon, 03 Jun 2013 12:49:21 -0400
new highs - 39
new lows - 230

We could still get another legit signal today if the market were to bounce sufficiently and inspire about 48 new highs. That wouldn't be difficult I don't think... if the market were to burst higher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19558831 19558831
Just two weeks ago I decided to start up an old vehicle I have that had been sitting in the parkade and hadn't been started for 16 months. The battery was dead. So I arranged for a friend to come over and give my vehicle a boost because my other vehicle was elsewhere. I had the booster cables already attached when he arrived and it took all of 60 seconds to get the old girl fired up. Just to make sure I didn't have any ugly surprises, I made sure the passenger door was unlocked as well. My friend was in a hurry so as I thanked him and waved 'good-bye' as he drove off, I pushed the driver door shut so the vehicle could run for a while.

As my buddy's car disappeared around the corner of the building, my attention returned to my old clunker. The next thing I had to do was to gather up the jumper cables and put them back in vehicle. To my horror, the door was locked. Good thing I had unlocked the passenger door, right? So I scurried around to the passenger's side and wouldn't you know it... LOCKED. Apparently I must have inadvertently pushed the little "lock doors" button on the remote as I was fiddling with other things. So now my vehicle is running with the keys locked inside it. But I have a spare set of keys in the apartment.

Did I lock the apartment when I left? I always do! Oh god, if that apartment is locked I've got a real problem. So I waited at the front door of the building for someone to open the door so I could get in, ran up to my apartment and... I don't have to tell you. So now I've got a vehicle that's finally running again, with the keys locked inside it, and that set of keys happens to open the door to my apartment where I have spare keys.

BUT WAIT... not all is lost. I know how to get inside that old vehicle very easily by popping off the sun-roof. All I need is a screwdriver... and luckily I have the right one... in the apartment. Doh! So now I'm going to have to bother some friend again. I'm going to have to call someone on my cell phone... but guess where 'that' is.

So I had to go back to the front entrance of the apartment building and do my best impression of "brother can you spare a dime". Only this time I'm asking everyone who passes by, "brother can you spare a screwdriver?". Fortunately one of the guys had some tools upstairs and he brought me a screwdriver set. So I was able to pop that sunroof off and reach down and open the door.

Long story short... I eventually had to put a battery charger on that battery and believe it or not... it was brand new. It's just that I had installed it 16 months earlier. The last time I got into this kind of trouble it 'was' my son who bailed me out. This time... I had no way of contacting him or anybody else, lol. Gawd... nobody needs days like that but I pretty much invited that disaster by not doing it the right way... with my other vehicle. On the other hand... that's what inspired me to fire up the old one, lol.]]> Mon, 03 Jun 2013 12:37:41 -0400
Just two weeks ago I decided to start up an old vehicle I have that had been sitting in the parkade and hadn't been started for 16 months. The battery was dead. So I arranged for a friend to come over and give my vehicle a boost because my other vehicle was elsewhere. I had the booster cables already attached when he arrived and it took all of 60 seconds to get the old girl fired up. Just to make sure I didn't have any ugly surprises, I made sure the passenger door was unlocked as well. My friend was in a hurry so as I thanked him and waved 'good-bye' as he drove off, I pushed the driver door shut so the vehicle could run for a while.

As my buddy's car disappeared around the corner of the building, my attention returned to my old clunker. The next thing I had to do was to gather up the jumper cables and put them back in vehicle. To my horror, the door was locked. Good thing I had unlocked the passenger door, right? So I scurried around to the passenger's side and wouldn't you know it... LOCKED. Apparently I must have inadvertently pushed the little "lock doors" button on the remote as I was fiddling with other things. So now my vehicle is running with the keys locked inside it. But I have a spare set of keys in the apartment.

Did I lock the apartment when I left? I always do! Oh god, if that apartment is locked I've got a real problem. So I waited at the front door of the building for someone to open the door so I could get in, ran up to my apartment and... I don't have to tell you. So now I've got a vehicle that's finally running again, with the keys locked inside it, and that set of keys happens to open the door to my apartment where I have spare keys.

BUT WAIT... not all is lost. I know how to get inside that old vehicle very easily by popping off the sun-roof. All I need is a screwdriver... and luckily I have the right one... in the apartment. Doh! So now I'm going to have to bother some friend again. I'm going to have to call someone on my cell phone... but guess where 'that' is.

So I had to go back to the front entrance of the apartment building and do my best impression of "brother can you spare a dime". Only this time I'm asking everyone who passes by, "brother can you spare a screwdriver?". Fortunately one of the guys had some tools upstairs and he brought me a screwdriver set. So I was able to pop that sunroof off and reach down and open the door.

Long story short... I eventually had to put a battery charger on that battery and believe it or not... it was brand new. It's just that I had installed it 16 months earlier. The last time I got into this kind of trouble it 'was' my son who bailed me out. This time... I had no way of contacting him or anybody else, lol. Gawd... nobody needs days like that but I pretty much invited that disaster by not doing it the right way... with my other vehicle. On the other hand... that's what inspired me to fire up the old one, lol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19506881 19506881
You know, even as I was responding to your comment above on that topic, I could not actually remember that second signal as having occurred. But I read it... in my own words, so it must have happened, right? But I was reading a draft based on 'anticipation'. It was all just a real dumb mistake on my part which I only realized after checking it out again. I simply could not remember that second April signal and it was gnawing at me until I looked into it a second time. Sorry about that John.]]> Sat, 01 Jun 2013 14:05:12 -0400
You know, even as I was responding to your comment above on that topic, I could not actually remember that second signal as having occurred. But I read it... in my own words, so it must have happened, right? But I was reading a draft based on 'anticipation'. It was all just a real dumb mistake on my part which I only realized after checking it out again. I simply could not remember that second April signal and it was gnawing at me until I looked into it a second time. Sorry about that John.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19495361 19495361
I had told John earlier today (Friday) that in the April event the HO had issued its required second and confirming signal two days after the initial signal. I WAS WRONG ABOUT THAT. I had inadvertently referred to a draft article that I had prepared 'in anticipation' of that second signal. I never published it, because that second signal never did materialize.

So in my hurry today I accidentally opened up the wrong article so that I could refer to my own work. And based on that 'draft that was never published', I erroneously told Mr. Lounsbury that in the April event a second confirming signal had occurred. It had not.

Just wanted to man up and admit my mistake in that regard. My apologies John.]]> Sat, 01 Jun 2013 01:10:43 -0400
I had told John earlier today (Friday) that in the April event the HO had issued its required second and confirming signal two days after the initial signal. I WAS WRONG ABOUT THAT. I had inadvertently referred to a draft article that I had prepared 'in anticipation' of that second signal. I never published it, because that second signal never did materialize.

So in my hurry today I accidentally opened up the wrong article so that I could refer to my own work. And based on that 'draft that was never published', I erroneously told Mr. Lounsbury that in the April event a second confirming signal had occurred. It had not.

Just wanted to man up and admit my mistake in that regard. My apologies John.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19495271 19495271
My son has asked me to speak at the wedding. I'm not surprised because the father of the groom always says a few words. But the fun part is that he has asked me to 'kick it up a notch'. He describes his fiance's family as being "cold porridge", meaning good people but boring wallflower types. He said "If we're going to make this thing into a party, it's gonna have to be our family who will have to spice it up." So it appears he has given me the green light to take the microphone and see if I can crack a few people up. Somehow I don't think that's going to be a problem. I've already cracked a rib laughing at some of the funny stuff I've come up with regarding escapades he and I have gotten ourselves into in the past. It should be a lot of fun.]]> Sat, 01 Jun 2013 01:02:47 -0400
My son has asked me to speak at the wedding. I'm not surprised because the father of the groom always says a few words. But the fun part is that he has asked me to 'kick it up a notch'. He describes his fiance's family as being "cold porridge", meaning good people but boring wallflower types. He said "If we're going to make this thing into a party, it's gonna have to be our family who will have to spice it up." So it appears he has given me the green light to take the microphone and see if I can crack a few people up. Somehow I don't think that's going to be a problem. I've already cracked a rib laughing at some of the funny stuff I've come up with regarding escapades he and I have gotten ourselves into in the past. It should be a lot of fun.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19482441 19482441
http://bit.ly/13r0eQN]]> Fri, 31 May 2013 16:14:40 -0400
http://bit.ly/13r0eQN]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19482191 19482191
Well for the first signal on April 15th, a second signal was required within 36 days. I never did see a ruling on whether or not that was calendar days or trading days but I'm almost certain it's calendar days. In any case, it 'already did' give that second and confirming signal two days later. The market reacted with a drop of only 3.6% and since then has surpassed the high at the time. And more than 6 weeks have passed, as you point out.

So this is a new and separate event rather than "one of a series of events within 36 days that are redundant". So this signal is a new one and requires another second and confirming signal.]]> Fri, 31 May 2013 16:10:16 -0400
Well for the first signal on April 15th, a second signal was required within 36 days. I never did see a ruling on whether or not that was calendar days or trading days but I'm almost certain it's calendar days. In any case, it 'already did' give that second and confirming signal two days later. The market reacted with a drop of only 3.6% and since then has surpassed the high at the time. And more than 6 weeks have passed, as you point out.

So this is a new and separate event rather than "one of a series of events within 36 days that are redundant". So this signal is a new one and requires another second and confirming signal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19477481 19477481 new 52 week highs = 94
new 52 week lows = 135

Classic :-)]]> Fri, 31 May 2013 14:28:19 -0400 new 52 week highs = 94
new 52 week lows = 135

Classic :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19473931 19473931 Fri, 31 May 2013 13:13:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19472621 19472621 Fri, 31 May 2013 12:46:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/1274871-hindenburg-omen-november-13-2012?source=feed#comment-19433151 19433151
On a side note, the pattern 'does' look to me like at least another down leg is in the cards.]]> Thu, 30 May 2013 14:43:32 -0400
On a side note, the pattern 'does' look to me like at least another down leg is in the cards.]]>