Service Corp.: The Stock May Be Down, But This Company Is Hardly Dead [View article]
SCI pays an annual divident of $0.16 per share, or 5% at current prices. The company's low-end 2009 FCF estimate of $130mm implies that FCF per share will be at least $0.50. Accordingly, the dividend appears safe, no? Is management committed to the payout? Do they have a history of previous dividend cuts?
If the company is committed to the dividend, the stock seems to offer some value while investors wait for a catalyst (i.e. private equity buyout) to drive up the stock price.
Nine Potential Dividend Growth Opportunities [View article]
Look forward to your analyses of ADI and QCOM. As a quasi-dividend investor, I have not ventured too far into the technology sector, outside of INTC and MSFT and PAYX (if that can be properly classified as a technology company).
How Do the Ratings Agencies Compare? [View article]
The risk here is that in the near future the beta for financial pure play MCO will be much higher than that of diversified MHP. Of course, that assumes that the financials continue to rally and that the government does not crack down hard on the ratings agencies.
Paired Trades: Short Nalco Holding, Long Met-Pro [View article]
Great job, as usual.
By the way, would you put PLL in the same category as NLC (i.e., another potential water treatment short)? Or has the recent sell-off limited the upside on such a trade?
The 'Sell After Dividend Cut/Freeze' Rule, With Exceptions [View article]
Do you apply the same philosophy to closed end funds? I would think a more nuanced approach is necessary in such cases, as many funds institute small cuts at times (i.e 12 cents per month to 11 cents per month) only to restore or increase the dividend at a latter date.
P.S. Do you think that RY can maintain its dividend?
High Yielding Preferred Stocks Could Also Get the Dividend Ax [View article]
What do you think of PGX? Better or worse than PFF? Both seem to be heavily invested in cumulative preferreds and trust preferred. As far as I can tell, the main difference is that PGX has foreign exposure while PFF does not. So it would seem that PFF may be the better choice. Thoughts?
On Mar 11 11:17 AM klarsolo wrote:
> PFF and PGF are quite different plays on preferred ETFs. PFF primarily > owns trust preferreds of financials, and most of them are cumulative. > Altogether, about 55 % of all preferreds in PFF are cumulative, similarly > to PGX. > > PGF on the other hand exclusively has non-cumulative, regular preferreds. > Not a single trust preferred can be found in here and as I said, > NONE of them are cumulative. On top of that you have a high concentration > in nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland, who is at the whim of the > government. > > PGF is priced lower than PFF/PGX, but the risk is also much higher. > I'd go with PFF/PGX for the time being. >
High Yielding Preferred Stocks Could Also Get the Dividend Ax [View article]
I bought the WFC-J, held it through the ex-dividend date in February and then sold it at a small profit. I am thinking of getting back into this security (perhaps accompanied by a short position in the common as a hedge) as well as purchasing the USB-L, which has declared its quarterly dividend and goes ex-dividend in late March. Thoughts on these securities.
On Mar 11 03:16 PM David Clayton wrote:
> The stated yields are incorrect. Current yields (at specific prices): > > > PGF ($6.50): 21.5% - www.invescopowershares... > > PFF ($13.62): 14.4% - us.ishares.com/product... > > > Also, the management fee of PGF is scheduled to increase to 1.00% > in August. > > You failed to mention that Citigroup's action suspending the preferred > dividend included an offer to convert them to common shares at a > premium. The preferreds jumped 30-60% on the day of the announcement. > > > Cutting dividends on preferreds is very much a last-gasp survival > tactic. With the common stock so low, a secondary of common isn't > feasible due to the dilution, so preferred is the only viable capital > raising mechanism. Killing the preferred dividends damages their > value tremendously, and makes raising capital with additional non-cumulative > preferred issues impossible. When Ford deferred its cumulative trust > preferred dividends last week, the shares lost 40% of their value > and now trade at 21% of par. And those are dividends that will be > paid eventually if the company survives. > > So what C was doing was throwing in the towel. Citi does not expect > to raise private capital again (though they left the trust preferreds > intact, so there is a small window there), and so it is taking extreme > steps, backed by the government, to preserve every dollar it can. > > > BAC might find itself in a similar position, but I don't think any > other national U.S. bank is in anything close to this condition. > > > In addition to the fact that PFF holds a significant amount of trust > preferreds, the other differential between these two ETFs is the > foreign exposure in PGF. Many of the foreign banks are struggling > at least as mightily as Citigroup, and investors are much more inclined > to believe that governments will take them over. Currently, the highest-yielding > U.S.-based components are BAC, averaging about 25%. Yielding more > than this are preferreds of Aegon (34%), ING (37%), and RBS (42%). > > > Compare the average 25% yield on BAC preferreds with the current > yields of WFC-J (14.8%), USB-L (12.0%), and JPM-I (11.5%), and you > can see that the market does not share your concern about those dividends. > > > While I own the PGF (and have taken a bath), the European shares > definitely make it quite speculative. I am fairly confident about > the BAC preferreds at this point, and moved some of my PGF holding > into BML-Q after the Citi debacle (my opinion here: seekingalpha.com/artic...). > I hope to write a piece soon explaining my opinions on a number of > preferred issues. > > Glancing at the holdings of PFF, which I don't own, it looks very > solid to me. Yes, there are a few problem children, but I don't think > there's much question about the vast majority of the components' > ability to pay dividends indefinitely. That's why the dividend is > only 2/3 that of PGF.
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If the company is committed to the dividend, the stock seems to offer some value while investors wait for a catalyst (i.e. private equity buyout) to drive up the stock price.
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Yet V does not appear at all in the article. Please explain.
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By the way, would you put PLL in the same category as NLC (i.e., another potential water treatment short)? Or has the recent sell-off limited the upside on such a trade?
The 'Sell After Dividend Cut/Freeze' Rule, With Exceptions [View article]
P.S. Do you think that RY can maintain its dividend?
High Yielding Preferred Stocks Could Also Get the Dividend Ax [View article]
On Mar 11 11:17 AM klarsolo wrote:
> PFF and PGF are quite different plays on preferred ETFs. PFF primarily
> owns trust preferreds of financials, and most of them are cumulative.
> Altogether, about 55 % of all preferreds in PFF are cumulative, similarly
> to PGX.
>
> PGF on the other hand exclusively has non-cumulative, regular preferreds.
> Not a single trust preferred can be found in here and as I said,
> NONE of them are cumulative. On top of that you have a high concentration
> in nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland, who is at the whim of the
> government.
>
> PGF is priced lower than PFF/PGX, but the risk is also much higher.
> I'd go with PFF/PGX for the time being.
>
High Yielding Preferred Stocks Could Also Get the Dividend Ax [View article]
On Mar 11 03:16 PM David Clayton wrote:
> The stated yields are incorrect. Current yields (at specific prices):
>
>
> PGF ($6.50): 21.5% - www.invescopowershares...
>
> PFF ($13.62): 14.4% - us.ishares.com/product...
>
>
> Also, the management fee of PGF is scheduled to increase to 1.00%
> in August.
>
> You failed to mention that Citigroup's action suspending the preferred
> dividend included an offer to convert them to common shares at a
> premium. The preferreds jumped 30-60% on the day of the announcement.
>
>
> Cutting dividends on preferreds is very much a last-gasp survival
> tactic. With the common stock so low, a secondary of common isn't
> feasible due to the dilution, so preferred is the only viable capital
> raising mechanism. Killing the preferred dividends damages their
> value tremendously, and makes raising capital with additional non-cumulative
> preferred issues impossible. When Ford deferred its cumulative trust
> preferred dividends last week, the shares lost 40% of their value
> and now trade at 21% of par. And those are dividends that will be
> paid eventually if the company survives.
>
> So what C was doing was throwing in the towel. Citi does not expect
> to raise private capital again (though they left the trust preferreds
> intact, so there is a small window there), and so it is taking extreme
> steps, backed by the government, to preserve every dollar it can.
>
>
> BAC might find itself in a similar position, but I don't think any
> other national U.S. bank is in anything close to this condition.
>
>
> In addition to the fact that PFF holds a significant amount of trust
> preferreds, the other differential between these two ETFs is the
> foreign exposure in PGF. Many of the foreign banks are struggling
> at least as mightily as Citigroup, and investors are much more inclined
> to believe that governments will take them over. Currently, the highest-yielding
> U.S.-based components are BAC, averaging about 25%. Yielding more
> than this are preferreds of Aegon (34%), ING (37%), and RBS (42%).
>
>
> Compare the average 25% yield on BAC preferreds with the current
> yields of WFC-J (14.8%), USB-L (12.0%), and JPM-I (11.5%), and you
> can see that the market does not share your concern about those dividends.
>
>
> While I own the PGF (and have taken a bath), the European shares
> definitely make it quite speculative. I am fairly confident about
> the BAC preferreds at this point, and moved some of my PGF holding
> into BML-Q after the Citi debacle (my opinion here: seekingalpha.com/artic...).
> I hope to write a piece soon explaining my opinions on a number of
> preferred issues.
>
> Glancing at the holdings of PFF, which I don't own, it looks very
> solid to me. Yes, there are a few problem children, but I don't think
> there's much question about the vast majority of the components'
> ability to pay dividends indefinitely. That's why the dividend is
> only 2/3 that of PGF.