Edward Lewis

Economic Crisis Due to "Technological Acceleration"

I wrote my earlier comment on this blog about 6 months ago. Now it is Dec. 24, 2009--I think that the economic recessionary period will deepen now. People will probably start calling this a depression. I would like people to consider whether my scientific revolution-industrial development-economic cycle model is accurate by reading my articles you can find posted in various places online.

In 1989, I wrote up a theory of economics based on industrial revolution cycles that happen at 80 year intervals. The model predicted a boom for the US similar to the 1920s boom until about 2010. Then it predicted a 1930s type depressionary period.

This year, the major world governments pumped up spending and lending and etc. to try to stimulate the economy. But we are in a technological acceleration phase of the quantum mechanics based industries. (My theory of economic depressions is based on a model that scientific revolutions happen at 80 year intervals, each revolution in physics (ie the relativity-QM paradigm starting in 1905) enables industrial revolutions to begin about 60 or 70 years later (1970s QM industrial revolution) if factors of the past replay (ie no disaster, etc.).

The QM bases industries began in the 1970s and 1980s, then developed and we had the boom in the 2000s. However, we have reached the mid-life period of their industrial life cycle. During this time, there is increasing automation causing rising unemployment, as well as oligopoly formation in the major QM based industries. Until this process is finished, unemployment will increase, leading to reduction in consumption. Other factors are involved in technological acceleration depressions. On papers I wrote and put online in the 1990s and early this decade, I describe this economic period well, and they have my economic predictions. More recently I've published articles you can also find online. Edward Lewis

No One Saw This Economic Crisis Coming?

About 20 years ago, I predicted that there would be a depressionary period starting around the end of this decade. This prediction was based on a model of economic depressions that explains economic depressions as the outcome of industrial revolutions. I knew that there was an industrial revolution in the 1970s and 1980s, and I know that history shows that economic depressions follow these industrial revolutions by about 30 years.
The first industrial revolution ended about 1800 in Great Britain, and the depressionary period started there about 1830. The second industrial revolution ended about 1900 in the US, and a depression started in1929. The model therefore predicted that a 1930s style economic depression would start about 2009, because the third industrial revolution ended about 1982.
This economic crisis is due to the stage of productivity growth acceleration that industry entered about 1999. Depressions lag these productivity growth acceleration stages by about 10 years, historically.
The model also explains why a different kind of economic depression associated with productivity growth stagnation happens during the periods of industrial revolution.
The whole model is based on a model of scientific revolutions in physics that happen at 80 year intervals. Cold fusion isn't a dead field, as the recent news reports show.

Depressionary Tales

I developed and wrote articles about my theory that economic depression periods (which may be just very deep depressions and not the deepest depressions) happen at 40 year intervals. In 1990, I predicted that a depressionary period would start about 2009, and that the deep recession or depression would be like the 1929 depression, with financial crisis, high unemployment, and high productivity growth rates. I predicted the productivity growth acceleration period that would start about the year 2000. It did start then, as I predicted, and I predicted the economic boom times of this decade. This economic theory is based on a theory of scientific revolutions in physics, that scientific revolutions in physics happen every 80 years more or less, and that these lead to the industrial revolutions that also happen at 80 year intervals. More about this can be seen on lenr-canr or cust38.metawerx.com.au