Sicall

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

The amount of money involved may be less important than the shock to the moral of the region. This is a part of the world where you can be put in prison for not paying the decorator.

Many news reports i have listened to and read from America are totally undersestimating the possible consequences of this. They say the amount of money invoved is too small to cause a setback. They really do not understand the make up of the UAE at all.

I have even heard one american commentator misquote by saying Abu Dhabi had defaulted on its sovereign debt.

Baltic Dry Index Remains Flat as Markets Continue to Rally

I dont need evidence of all the ships that are sitting idle. I can see 10 of them from my window. Bulk carriers and a few container ships five miles off the coast of Suffolk, England.

Never seen anything like it before, but its down from the peak the most i have seen is fifteen this summer.

Time to Be a Cautious Investor

Thanks for a very good article.

A couple of very important differences have not been mentioned when you compare the current recession with the great depression.

Firstly the Fed of the 1930s did not pump liquidity and stimulus into the economy they did the opposite.

There was a rise in protectionism in the 1930s that we havent seen so far in this recession.

The best comparison of what is happening now is possibly the Panic of 1907 which was started by bankers making risky loans and ended with a V shape recovery when money was pumped back in.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Inflation: It's a Crowded Trade

Good article but it is very easy to see where the printed money is going........straight into the equity market.

If this bubble bursts we are back to square one but the debt is now with governments.

Could be a good time to have some gold.

British Telecom: Likely to Never Regain Past Glory

I have to agree with the screwloose . The words "customer service" obviously have a different meaning to BT. They seem to treat all their customers with equal contempt and getting to talk to someone who seems to know what they are doing is near impossible.

How long this company will last is hard to say but anyone who is considering investing in it must live on Mars.

S&P 500 Breaks Above Downtrend

S&P seems to be stuck in an 850 - 950 range . Buy the dips and wait for signs of a breakout. It certainly looks like strong technical support levels at 850.

FAS and FAZ: A Short-Seller's Dream?

Who would be dumb enough to loan stock on a triple leverage ETF ?

I have heard people say they are in this trade but i believe its an urban myth.

Leveraged ETF Performance (6/5/09)

You rightly point out the fact that FAZ and FAS are both down. I have heard that some people have been shorting them both and made a lot of money.

As the nature of these (x3) leveraged ETFs is that they degrade over time this should be a no lose trade. However volatility has made this trade more succesful than it should be in the short time they have been around.

I would also like to know who would be dumb enough to loan them to shorters?

Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury ETF Presents Continuing Opportunity

Seems risky to play with TBT when the Fed are still into their quantative easing. The time to get in is when they finish.

Must Read for China Investors: Fact and Fiction in China

I think most of the "hype" is actually waking people up to the fact that the world has changed dramatically in the last twenty years and the role and power of china with it. Having been there recently, yes there is government interference in many things that wouldnt be acceptable in the west and you have rightly pointed a few of them out.

I am not sure though about Mr Scissors comment on the youtube video that they have to buy US treasuries or keep the money under the mattress seems a bit naive if he thinks that. Keep your eye on the industrial metals market.

Junk Bond Funds in Q2: Large Bumps Ahead

I would like someone to explain the risk on these "junk bond" ETF`s as it is not immediately obvious to me what it is.

As they are a Fund they do not act like a Bond so buying at a certain price does not lock you into a specific yield.

Also as the ETF tracks an index, they hold a large number of different Bonds therefore a default on one should not greatly affect the NAV or the dividend.

If i have got the above points right then the effect of defaults in an ETF such as JNK which has a holding of 100+ bonds is small. Another factor is as the defaults are not widely publicised how do you know how many of JNK`s holdings have defaulted?

IEF and HYG

IEF tracks the treasuries that are the target of the Feds QE measures i would therefore think very carefully before believing that it will break the support in the short term. The saying "don`t fight the fed" should be remembered.

The Treasury Short: Still Viable?

I think Mr Youngs is correct. TBT is far too risky a play in the current environment. You have to remember that there has been a 25 year Bull market in Govt Bonds, since rampant inflation was killed off in the late 80`s. I don`t see it changing in the short term.

The doctrine of don`t "fight the fed" has never been more true and if they are buying theres no way i am going to short.

More Stress Over Stress Tests

Very well written article with plenty to think about. It does seem highly unlikely that anything negative will be revealed to the market in the "stress test".

I think there will be one set of results for the market and another for the Fed.

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

No one should believe much will be revealed by the governments so called "stress tests". In the last century they were called "cover ups".

My gut feeling is that all the major banks will pass comfortably. Would you want to be the civil servant that declares Citi and Bank of America insolvent?