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evl

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  • What's Keeping Boeing In Flight? [View article]
    Agree that BA will be safe, as long as there is no black swan in the air.
    Oct 30 05:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Under $20 That Should Trade for $30 [View article]
    Financially speaking, JNPR’s product lines create less value than CSCO’s. Then again, tomorrow will be different, with competitors, market shares and their profit margins changing. But it’s said to be “easier” for management to protect than to conquer.
    On the other hand, at today’s share prices, JNPR is overvalued, while CSCO is undervalued. But CSCO got slashed by a part of the investors community, not least by ... JNPR supporters.
    So, what’s the best of both worlds, none?
    I would say for myself, buy CSCO tomorrow (debt crash is coming) while waiting to see JNPR improving its profitability, but who knows better?

    Ed Van Lier
    Jul 27 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple and Intel Use All That Cash? [View article]
    share buy backs are great assuming price goes up...
    Jul 26 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple and Intel Use All That Cash? [View article]
    Probably one of both will buy Dell, as soon as it gets below $12.
    Ed Van Lier
    Jul 26 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft, Intel and Cisco Will Rise Once Again [View article]
    Being myself a longtime investor in US good value stocks, I read a lot of articles and comments recently, both positive and negative, about CSCO and its CEO.
    Sometimes I get the impression that a part of the American investors and analysts defend more a conviction (=animosity) than a fact (= unanimity), pleading to be right, while mixing up cause and effect arguments.

    A fact is that CSCO’s share price is down dramatically; conviction is that Chambers is a miserable manager and that he forced the stock price to go down. Corporate initiates know that a CEO’s responsibility is not to manage the share price but the business, share price being eventually the effect of lean management decisions.

    As I can only believe in facts, and trying to remain neutral most of the time, I can only sack at the company’s price and not at its management. There is however one finding that CSCO’s critics or short-ists should look at, which is the following:
    I don’t know how much savvy long term investors earned with other blue chips over the last 5 years. These companies who generated huge (free) cash flow, developed marvelous products and served global markets. Well, their share price is at the same level as 5 years ago: check KO, INTL, GE, MSFT, CSCO a.o. The only return you got from them was dividends (apart from CSCO, who got in line just recently).

    Another thing is that CSCO’s decision takers have other ways to get out of todays’ destroying market sentiment. They could set up a merger between equals or, if I were Mr Chambers and his team, given all the negative sentiment and the probably undervalued stock price, I would organize a clever management buyout (that is, of course, if they really believe in the future of their acts). And I don’t know if this kind of initiatives would please today’s’ complaining shareholders like you and me?

    Ed Van Lier
    Jun 30 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Should Pay Me to Stay [View article]
    Being myself a longtime investor in US good value stocks, I read a lot of articles and comments recently, both positive and negative, about CSCO and its CEO.
    Sometimes I get the impression that a part of the American investors and analysts defend more a conviction (=animosity) than a fact (= unanimity), pleading to be right, while mixing up cause and effect arguments.

    A fact is that CSCO’s share price is down dramatically; conviction is that Chambers is a miserable manager and that he forced the stock price to go down. Corporate initiates know that a CEO’s responsibility is not to manage the share price but the business, share price being eventually the effect of lean management decisions.

    As I can only believe in facts, and trying to remain neutral most of the time, I can only sack at the company’s price and not at its management. There is however one finding that CSCO’s critics or short-ists should look at, which is the following:
    I don’t know how much savvy long term investors earned with other blue chips over the last 5 years. These companies who generated huge (free) cash flow, developed marvelous products and served global markets. Well, their share price is at the same level as 5 years ago: check KO, INTL, GE, MSFT, CSCO a.o. The only return you got from them was dividends (apart from CSCO, who got in line just recently).

    Another thing is that CSCO’s decision takers have other ways to get out of today's’ destroying market sentiment. They could set up a merger between equals or, if I were Mr. Chambers and his team, given all the negative sentiment and the probably undervalued stock price, I would organize a clever management buyout (that is, of course, if they really believe in the future of their acts). And I don’t know if this kind of initiatives would please today’s’ complaining shareholders like you and me?

    Ed Van Lier
    Jun 30 05:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Should Pay Me to Stay [View article]
    if I were Mr Chambers and his team, given all the negative sentiment and the undervalued stock price, I would organize a clever management buyout. That is, of course, if they really believe in the future of their acts.

    Ed Van Lier
    Jun 28 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Cisco: An Economic Profit Valuation and Analysis [View article]
    I got your point, but opinions today seem to be largely divided between pros and contras (longs and shorts?), meaning generally that nobody really knows, everybody hoping to be right.
    Jun 28 05:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Cisco: An Economic Profit Valuation and Analysis [View article]
    That's more like cutting the head of the chicken to spare the eggs. Companies' failures are due to, i n order:
    1) product 2) market and 3) management,
    often some of these combined.
    i'd like to read more professional analysis about CSCO's product and market potential before divesting or investing in it.

    Ed Van Lier
    Jun 27 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Cisco: An Economic Profit Valuation and Analysis [View article]
    Can’t agree more with Jeremy’s analysis and valuation of CSCO.
    Problem is, investors don’t buy it anymore and the negative sentiment invariably pushes down the stock price to “illogic” low levels, far away from all expert value projections. Using the Future-Free-Cash-Flow approach I arrive at a value of $23 per CSCO share, which is 50% above today’s market price. But how to figure in negative investor behavior in a case like this (apart from a 50% discount…)?
    As the market is said to be always right, it seems dangerous to relay today on classic financial valuation techniques for a case like CSCO.

    Ed Van Lier
    Jun 23 04:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Companies Near 12-Month Lows With Low Debt and Reasonable Valuations [View article]
    Maybe your right, but just to get it, are you short on CSCO?
    Apr 20 04:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dirt Cheap Large Cap Stocks [View article]
    It’s great to buy low and sell high, that’s what it’s all about. It works once out of two, a fraction more for those who are lucky. Stock trading is a zero game, one wins, another loses.
    About CSCO, the intrinsic value is clearly > $20. But the market doesn’t buy it anymore and the company’s management seems to be burned. So, who is right and what can be done about it? That’s what I’d like to learn from somebody.
    Ed Van Lier
    Apr 4 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best and Worst Technology Stocks for the Long Run [View article]
    must be the typewriter machine
    Mar 30 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Tax Holiday Could Put $1.2 Trillion in Shareholders' Pockets [View article]
    Cross border tax treaties have enabled (stimulated) corporations to navigate their cash flows to "safer" places, or places to invest. Why should they be punished when they want to repatriate some of it?
    European corporations have something like strategic tax planning to play it safe and planify (optimIze) international tax situations, why not US?

    Ed Van Lier
    Mar 23 02:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: We Must Be Near the Bottom [View article]
    I don't know where the bottom is, but I’d like to learn how much savvy long term investors earned with their blue chips over the last 5 years. The cream of corporate America, companies that generated huge (free) cash, developed marvelous products and conquered global markets. But shares prices, investors worth, didn't progress: check for example KO, INTL, GE, MSFT, CSCO a.o. The only return you got from them over the last 5 years was some dividends, apart from CSCO.

    Of course, tomorrow will be different. But CSCO’s stakeholders should know what they want. Shareholder value comes in two ways: either dividend or stock price (and ideally a positive combination between both).
    Long term investors are more looking at share value (apart from daily traders who look for momentum), as dividends are logically limited to a meager 1 or 2% return. Dividends are also irrelevant in terms of share value, being the result of strategic and long term management decisions. Therefore, it is vital to understand how CSCO’s management is going to invest their incredible cash reserves, more than which part will be devoted to dividend (or used for share buy backs, which is OK … if share prices go up).

    Ed Van Lier
    Mar 21 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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