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  • FOMC Statement: Blue-Line Comparison [View article]
    Love the blue-line. Nice comparison.
    Nov 4 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Video Game Makers Face Eastern Invasion [View article]
    Blizzard has some monster games coming out. Three Starcraft titles coming soon. And Diablo III to follow. These PC games will be colossal hits, and everyone in their massive fan base will buy them. Blizzard's quality level isn't something that any cheap Eastern company can even dream about matching - and most Western companies haven't been able to match it either. (I don't regard Sony as a cheap company).

    Generally, quality and creativity makes a huge difference to game sales. Blizzard manages this better than anyone, such as by refusing to set hard deadlines on their game releases. Cheap programmers spitting out garbage are zero threat. Even if a cheap Eastern company came up with an innovative gaming concept, any Western company can take the concept and make it better. (IP protections are likely too specific to really protect a concept broad enough to be a "game-changer." Most everything has been tried somewhere before, even if the right marketing twist hasn't been found).

    As for WoW's problems in China, I don't expect them to go away any time soon: World of Warcraft is a time consuming game that generates a vast online community wherever it is sold. The Chinese government will be very, very reluctant to approve of such a thing. Imagine all those worker drones playing video games for hours at a time, and conversing freely while completing quests based on American values! Scandolous! Other titles like the Star Craft or Diablo series, could fare better, since they can be played individually in short segments. Or else there will be a massive black market - always a possibility in China.
    Nov 3 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Rallies and Lessons of History [View article]
    This situation is an outlier. But that's not a good thing. We have some very hard times ahead.
    Nov 2 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is a Stimulus Job Worth? [View article]
    Talk about funny accounting. This article proposes the financial equivalent of a perpetual motion machine. Such a thing just isn't possile. E.g., money printing has its limits.

    Besides, what tangible value was actually created by all this spending? Economic inefficiency at its finest.
    Nov 1 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upside GDP Surprise: Misleading [View article]
    Good summary Peter. The storm will come sooner and harder than most people expect. The next several years are likely to be hard ones. And that's before the demographic shift really starts hammering us.

    There are so many historical examples. The Weimar Republic of Germany will be receive a lot more attention in the coming years. For now, everyone talks about the Great Depression, even if they don't understand the lesson.
    Nov 1 10:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Aftershock: Where Does the Next Investment Opportunity Lie? [View article]
    Yes. Good article. I will certainly enjoy looking up information on the author, and I'll most likely read that book too.

    On substance, the overall thesis is sound. We are going to see this play out. So many people don't believe it. And afterwards, a lot of people will want to know why the talking heads didn't see it coming - or will blame it on an event. But it is perfectly obvious if you think objectively. The real question is timing and positioning (and preparation).
    Oct 30 09:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
    As always, thank you for your thoughts. I read your posts every day. Clearly for me, the best thing to do today is to work hard at my job and earn another paycheck. I'll be waiting to see what to do with it.
    Oct 30 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sold SPY Calls and Sitting on a Mountain of Cash [View article]
    I'm right there with you TraderMark. Mostly in cash, and taking more risk than I'd like by being in dollars. Ughh...
    Oct 12 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stories Aren't Being Told? [View article]
    The risk of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

    People have forgotten that we are a nation at war. Likely efforts by our enemies are not being publicly discussed, and we have no idea how we are being protected against them. This is a large risk, unreported, unprepared for, and severely unappreciated. This is the news event that everyone is missing.
    Sep 10 02:39 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply: The Myth of Hyperinflation [View article]
    So I notice my post got deleted - where I said this article would make an ironic example in a few years, that I'd save a link so it doesn't get forgotten (which I have), and that the author is pumping Sunshine - just like he always does in his articles.

    That's not a personal attack or name calling, but a fair and accurate commentary on the content and likely motivations behind it (IMO, these articles do not appear objective). If there's something so awful that it deserves being deleted, please let me know. Or does SA delete posts that point out the obvious, if someone doesn't like confronting it?
    Sep 4 02:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Budget Deficits Inflationary? [View article]
    Add to this what happens when our budget deficit is so large that (1) it takes inflation to pay it and (2) it becomes a stench to the foreign holders of dollars, and then consider what they might do with the dollars they have. For these and other reasons, it's going to be pretty ugly.
    Sep 3 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDIC's Private Equity Rule: So Much Can Go Wrong [View article]
    Does this mean I can start a bank, get money from the government at near 0% interest, and then make a home loan to my wife or kid?
    Aug 27 01:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Top or Advance the Rock? [View article]
    Quote: "What will be interesting is surely there will be a Black Swan event sometime in the next 10 years where computers will crash the market."

    Unfortunately, your statement may be downright prescient. And given the awful fundamentals right now, your time frame could potentially be a little too long. We live in a world of tremendous danger, largely not priced into the market. A black swan event any time in the next few years would be crushing. And there are certainly groups out there that would like to see it. IMO, basic assumptions need to be questioned in this market.
    Aug 14 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Court Bans Microsoft Word Sales: This Isn't Over [View article]
    Clarification: total damages could have been over 600 million, depending on the facts. Thus, it does not appear that the Court was being unfair somehow, but merely entering a jury verdict, with expectation of review by the Federal Circuit.
    Aug 13 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Court Bans Microsoft Word Sales: This Isn't Over [View article]
    Good summary of the likely resolution of IP issues. Microsoft can also seek a stay of the injunction, pending appeal.

    I haven't read the facts yet, just the judgment. Interestingly, a jury found Microsoft had willfully infringed the patent, but the Court only awarded damages for that willful infringement of 40 million (hard to pro. Given that the statute allows for treble damages and attorneys fees, that could have been over 600 million.

    But no need to worry about your software packages: Shortly after the judgment, iPi indicated that there's no problem that can't be solved by a really big check:
    Aug 13 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment