Mentor

Potash: Will the Death of K+S Benefit the Sector?

You should keep your article only about potash, it's true that pricing for potash and other fertilizer products have been coming down, but potash is different than other fertilizers such as nitrogen or phosphatic fertilizers. While potash consumers were waiting and/or bargaining the prices, consumers of other fertilizers were dormant.
Since Q3/09 the situation has changed, now a lot of dap, map, tsp..Nitrogen, or rock phosphate volumes are moving with prices with fair margin, no matter if the price is far from the ones of Q3/08.
If you want to benchmark, take into consideration prices of Q4/07 and Q1/08.
Potash producers market strategy is far different than the strategy of nitrogen and phosphatic fertilizers producers.

The Silvinet Deal Continues to Hit Potash and Mosaic

I am involved in worldwide sales of phosphatic fertilizers, what is happening to potash, has already happened to phosphatic fertilizers.
Producers agreed not to sell phosacid (basic component for phosphatic fertilizers MAP DAP TSP....) at a price under $1000, but GCT, tunisian producer broke "the cartel" and sold at a price of $600.
Now phosphatic fertilizers is starting to recover in volume and prices.
In a comment to one of your article about Potash, I said that Doyle is running great risk to keep price position of $750, I warned to watch BPC, now the surprise has come from silvinit, expect another surprise from ICL and K+S.

Potash Is Not Growing Green Shoots

I am folowing you on your alaysis about potash and fertilizers globaly. But this time, it seems to me that you are tired watching fertilizers market. in short term don't expect a miracle in fertilizers. K+S has decresed potash prices by 22%, while new indian fertilizers minister has started his 100 days plan actions and countinuing talks with BPC and ICL, while canpotex declared a deal with japan with a price over $700 cfr, without mentioning exact price. Phosphatic fertilizers have started to recevoer in prices and volumes, even if phosphate and nitrogen have plummeted, but don't we say "starting from zero you got nothing to lose'' So I am confident in phosphatic fertlizers in medium and long term.

Potash: Ugly Outlook Not Surprising - CIBC

Bill Doyle is still running a great risk for keeping potash price position at $750 cfr, this price and 2008 prices for all fertilizers are old stories, which did not reflect the real position of the market of that time, it was a false ''demand''.
Now while nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers are starting to recover in prices and volumes as we were in Q1 2008, which is enabling recovery of compound fertilzers NP and also NPK and PK, Potash is still dormant, awaiting indian and chineese contracts settlement with BCP and/or canpotex, which mostly will happen in Q4/09 or begining 2010 if it will happen. Indian new fertilizers minister has prepared 100 days fertilizers plan, china will ban from 1st july fertilizers export taxes, K+S has reduced potash spot price by 22%,
Taking into consideration all above, I think that potash prices will not be as Doyle is predicting.

Potash: Thesis versus Reality Yet Again

Despite what Bill Doyle declared in latest coferences, that he is sure that potash demand will soon come back, and keeping a price position of $750/mt.
If we come back to last year when prices commodities increased and potash reached the current $750, who took the initiative to rise price to $1000 ?, it was not POT or MOS or other norther amarican player, it was BPC. That's why I am watching BPC, and may be the surprise will come from the outsider, by reducing potash price for Q3 and/or Q4, specially right these days there is much talks with both new indian fertilizers minister and chineese. So I agree with the article that the thesis could be different from reality at least for 2nd half 2009.

How Will Ethanol Biofuels and Feed Grain Production Perform Through 2010?

It's a nice analysis, but from mid 2010, the situation will be worse. The food shortage, unability or hesitation of public and private to invest in agriculture, current under application of fertilizers: Potash application is falling by almost 40%, Phosphate by 25% and Nitrogen by 5-10%, The current prices decrease of phosphate and nitrogen is not stimulating the demand, but it's devaluating the market. Potash is still above $700.00 with no demand; China and India have not yet concluded their potash contracts.
Crop yields are declining in all parts where there are biggest grain producers due to drought and underapplication of fertilizers. The soil quality is depreciated.
After destocking crops of 2007 and 2008 that were record years, 2010 can be a food crisis.

9 Reasons Why CF Should Reject Agrium and Acquire Terra Industries

The nine reasons seem realistic, but in practice the scene is different as fertilizer market is in ebullition.
In my opinion:
Terra should reject CF offer.
CF should reject AGU offer.
What should be done ?
Egil Hogna has announced "We have flexibility for acquisitions, but now is also a time to be cautious" I agree with YARA's CFO
CEO of YARA has announced that YARA will grow globally by acquiring other companies in North America, China and India.
Yara could even surprise and acquire Terra.
and yet, much things to see.