Not Jerry Attrick

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

when the priemum goes back to zero it will be time to add...only way it's going to get there is when people who are holding the name realize that the 20% premium is killing them...yesterday it closed at 12%....today is currently around 15%...when it gets to zero or very near i'll be buying...lets call it a guestimate of around 6-8$'s a share...

to the post above i'd do the opposite...sell ung calls buy the futures - if you feel you have to get nat gas right now...best bet is to hold off, buy puts on ung or write calls on ung...the premium makes it impossible to make money on this name...when the time is right long term at the money calls, sit back and relax...

Natural Gas Is Cheap Compared to Oil

Sell UNG calls buy nat gas futures if ur going to play nat gas...UNG is doomed as long as the premium is near 20% regardless...they need to be able to issue new shares...when governments change rules and regulations things get all out of wack...(i.e. when the short selling ban was in place - how many quant funds closed shop?)

The rich just keep getting richer. Not.

trickle down economics...if a hedge fund doesn't do the deal with the coal mine, they don't hire another trader, the non-existent trader doesn't buy a penthouse apartment, the non-existent real estate broker doesn't a fetch a black cab home, the non-existent cabby doesn't find a fare so doesn't eat falafel, the non-existent falafel vendor doesn't have enough to buy his kid a gi-joe, the non-existent cashier at toy’s r us is unable to get her belly-button pierced and so on….the story never ends.

the rich need to keep getting rich...or there will be a lot more middle class and small businesses in pain...no matter how many cash for clunker deals this administration whips up, the rich still need to get richer for things to get better...

Dick Bove on Citigroup (C), up 8.7% today: "People are buying it now in expectation of the triple [that shares will be worth three times as much in three years] because they made the decision that all of the negatives that could happen don't mean anything."

2 things A- the stock is up quadruple what it was about 5 months ago….doubt people playing this name for spec are playing it for a 3 year yr trade (and only expect it to triple)…or most people anyway..very doubtful

B – majority of the movement is related to the credit side and the bonds…citigroup cds has tightened big time from last yr and the bonds have performed decent…its no bofa but the performance has been amazing..current sr 5 yr is at 281bps last month it was in the 330s...the month prior was 430's...

To the other commenter’s …lottery tickets have been everywhere the past 5 months...can’t blame people for feeling like they missed out…a sucker is the guy sitting on the sideline w/ his hands in his pockets…

can't just focus on equities - need to look into other various leading markets for indicators...and trading is much more different then investing...i'll trade garbage all day...

AAA calls a top to summer gasoline prices, even before the July 4 holiday. A spokesman says the driving season won't see average prices beat the June 21 high of $2.693 a gallon, after the organization had predicted $2.75/gallon this season.

i'm betting against this statement because.....it's incorrect =)

Natural Gas: The Next Big Thing

I think you nailed it spot -- when oil was around thirty you can bet you a$$ no one was sucking it out of the ground...now that we see it in the 70's it's all of the journal about companies struggling to get functioning again...this sort of news alone can push prices higher...

Today was a good sign closing about the 70$ mark...the minute we were under I started to pick up more...my only regret is waiting until the mid 40s to start accumulating...as it was known that 30$'s a barrell wouldn't be tolerated from the nations who control supply..

Happy trading

On Jun 15 08:05 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> I think the guys above are looking at the demand side....the supply
> side looks horrible when oil is $50/barrel.
>
> I think people in the market are looking forward and saying....damn
> we won't have any new projects coming online if oil is under $70-60
> a barrel.....we might not even have anything coming online at $80/barrel.
>
>
> Then the look the other way and see this massive pile of cash being
> created.....I dunno.
>
> Its all about demand/supply and the cost to replace the supply when
> used. The price cannot eclipse the majority of new oil coming online
> for a very long period....otherwise shortages occur. NG and oil are
> too low for new projects to come online in the mass....and if new
> projects are cut.....the natural decline of 7-9% of supply (new oil
> isn't coming online) will eclipse the demand pretty quickly if oil
> remains low.
>
> I do see we significantly rose the production of NG when prices were
> high....so the relationship between oil and NG may change in the
> future if we find significant amounts and are able to produce them
> at a reasonable price (the shales).

Activist hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman pledges to hold his personal stake in Target (TGT) (worth $55M) for another five years if he's elected to the board this Thursday. Ackman's looking to combat criticism he's only in it for short-term gains.

"Mr. Ackman said he would hold his stake in the company for five years or however long he serves on the board."

The Or part strikes me....there's too many loopholes - and it all comes down to money...i'm surprised he hasn't been selling into the +'tve movement already...

May 28th should be exciting for shareholders.

Activist hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman pledges to hold his personal stake in Target (TGT) (worth $55M) for another five years if he's elected to the board this Thursday. Ackman's looking to combat criticism he's only in it for short-term gains.

Lets see this on paper lol

2 Concerns with Michael Lewis's Review of Buffett Book 'The Snowball'

Armstrong economics - looking behind the curtain...google that - find the pdf read it...come back to this post and let me know what you think of warren buffet...

people praise and believe they know everything he does and trades...

It's official: Palm (PALM) Pre will launch June 6 and cost $200 at Sprint Stores, Best Buy (BBY), RadioShack (RSH) and some Wal-Marts (WMT). For Palm, the Pre is the company's future, while Sprint hopes the Pre will become its iPhone.

nvr gonna happen...sell the news...

Market Inexplicably Cheers Housing Inventory Glut

I was reading one of BofA/MLYN's analyst estimates on the housing mkt..even if housing starts were at 0...meaning no new homes being built - it would still take an estimated 3 years to bring the market back down to average inventory levels...

housing will take some time to heal...further losses should be expected...

The measure to cap credit card rates at 15% fails in Senate (33/60). "Though it did not pass, the measure is a testament to a shift against the industry as the financial crisis has hurt household finances and stoked public anger over bank bailouts." ((DJ))

THIS JUST IN!!! “The measure to cap the government from increasing tax rates to whatever they like on whatever they like, didn’t pass…but this is testament to people trying for something they’ll never control…good job team – enjoy a slurpie for you hard work…” -- great reporting from Tricia Takanawa

Even GM (GM) can't figure out why anyone's still buying its shares, with a spokesman saying any "reasonable person" would have sold off stocks by now.

P.S. - Not all of us trade in our e-trade accounts on this website lmao...good luck sniping.


On May 13 10:58 AM Not Jerry Attrick wrote:

> Been short since 4...refuse to cover...think and you'll find a way
> to play it to zero....as well as the bounce back....june it comes
> to an end...

Even GM (GM) can't figure out why anyone's still buying its shares, with a spokesman saying any "reasonable person" would have sold off stocks by now.

Been short since 4...refuse to cover...think and you'll find a way to play it to zero....as well as the bounce back....june it comes to an end...


On May 12 06:23 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> Add to that, unless your a market maker, where you going to get the
> stock to sell short? I have three accounts and NONE show stock available
> to short. Plenty of other good short candidates out there. No need
> to mess with this one, even if you could, which you can't. LOL

Even GM (GM) can't figure out why anyone's still buying its shares, with a spokesman saying any "reasonable person" would have sold off stocks by now.

because at 1.15 - there's still significant downside to short until their june debt obligation comes thru and they officially default...

people have been buying to cover...get short at 1.15 (todays close) and thank me at the end of may...easiest money you'll ever make...

then when they announce (wait till stock goes on hold) once its off buy shares long and ride the surge in share prices as any1 who is left short will scramble to cover...back tested to thru the 1930's this works every time there is a major bankruptcy. Keep an eye on the float..good luck.