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random walking

random walking
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  • Thank GDP It's Friday - Finally Some Facts [View article]
    Hope you don't mind, but I submitted this article to Reddit this morning. I can't add anything to what you said, because you nailed it better than I have seen anyone do so far. Can you imagine what the conversations are like that lead to these policies, conversations at the Fed, at the member banks, among those who lobby for these policies. Or maybe those conversations don't even need to happen, since additional taxes at the Federal level that can be seen by investors and voters have been off the table for so long now. Funny about those state and county taxes though, mine in Florida doubled in the Bush II era. NJ too I bet.
    Oct 30 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Micro Move May Be Up, But the Macro One Will Be Down [View article]
    Julian, thanks for your blogs/articles. Very thoughtful. I look forward to many more. John
    Oct 6 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Out of Dollars and Being Cheap About It [View article]
    Nicholas, I enjoy your posts, comments, etc. Have you looked into triple short IWM etf called SRTY?
    Sep 23 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kick Back and Just Accept Risk-Off? [View article]
    Wow, I can't believe you don't get more comments on seeking alpha except that a) it is not clear to me what you are buying, holding, or selling b) you are in a class of your own intellectually and the crowd would rather hang around with people who are more like them. Anyway, here is a thought: an article on Sweden two years after its crisis of the 90's started vs. the USA two years after 2008. Seems like the USA has spent a much larger share of its GDP bailing out the financial system than Sweden did, and got a lot less benefit for it. Regardless, keep up the good work!
    Sep 14 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'I Love the Delusion of the Markets at This Point in the Cycle' - Albert Edwards [View article]
    Thank you for sharing Albert Edwards insights. I can relate to the double take on Friday when the market took the mixed news as if it was purely good news. Yet I would not go so far as to say the market is predictive of nothing. It has its moods in the short and long run. News is only part of it. I am putting my money on short ETFs for the mid and long run. Keeping an eye out to go short on Treasuries. Would play the shorter term swings if I had the attention or the knack for it, but those brave souls who inhabit those realms are a breed apart from me so far.
    Sep 7 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of the Great Bond 'Bubble' [View article]
    According to the author of the article, a bubble can only be a bubble AFTER it has shown signs of bursting. Until then, it does not meet the definition of bubble. So, in advance of bursting, all we can have is "suspected bubbles". There ARE good reasons to consider that US treasuries are in a "suspected bubble". Comments by Davewmart and especially Charlie Price are more compelling than statements by the author of the article.
    Aug 19 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiangbo Pharma Is in the Bargain Basement [View article]
    Individual investor. Based in St Petersburg Florida. Electric utility and rental apartment experience. International travel and overseas living experience.
    Mar 8 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Real Estate ETF Not Dampened by Profit-Taking [View article]
    Correction to my statement above: RAP has not paid dividends since 2007. The summary information at ETFConnect is not correct.
    May 15 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Real Estate ETF Not Dampened by Profit-Taking [View article]
    In regards to comment by gunya above, TAO and RAF pay minimal dividends compared to domestic REITs and REIT based ETFs. RAP pays high dividends even though it's stated objective is not high current income but capital appreciation. Perhaps gunya's question and the issue of dividents pointed out here have something to say? I agree with the article though, that the market is reflecting differing prospects for domestic growth as opposed to emerging market growth, or even more specifically, the US and Europe may grow less than much of the rest of the world over the next few years or perhaps longer.
    May 15 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: An Inside Look [View article]
    After bankruptcy, the non-automotive chunks of GM should be sold off to defence contractors and groups like Catapillar, and the automotive chunks should be sold off if possible or closed. There is no shortage of capacity in relation to demand for automotive products worldwide, and the weakest will not survive. Why insist that the weakest survive? GM's toxic culture has reduced all the automotive brands except for Corvette to negative in value. They will need to drink more wine (a requisite for thinking?) and go to many more Sunday afternoon concerts before that has sunk in. Rick Wagoner will receive little emotional consolation from his $20M parachute. In the long run, those who have family who worked at GM will not remember him fondly or make excusses for his firing. The end of GM will look a lot like the end of the Soviet Union from the perspective of history.
    Apr 12 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner's Plan: A Look at the Options [View article]
    Look up the symbol AGNC. Seems like there IS a market for something fairly equivalent.
    Mar 25 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Void Payout to Non-Debt Holders of CDSs [View article]
    At the minimum, your idea deserves inclusion in the debate. We have these quasi-receiverships, quasi-bankruptcies, quasi-conservatorships, and imposed ownership restructurings that have not foreseen all implications, and that are motivated by political pressures as well as pragmatic needs. It is clear that by going the quasi route, the normal regulatory forces that were implied by rule of law were being circumvented.

    Clearly there is reason to consider that prior contracts are not all cast in stone, and to start giving the highest weight to this point. Obviously, our conceptual framework in regards to solving this mess is evolving, and your comment can only help in this evolution.

    The political expediency in using quasi restructuring steps is problematic in that existing rule of law may not apply. If the pre-crash rule of law was not sufficient for intervening with failed mega corporations, then instead of inventing new quasi systems of restructuring, regulators and politicians should have done the necessary homework to revise the systems of restructuring allowed by the rule of law. Then all contracts would have been on the table, not just those at the whim of the regulators (politicians) operating outside the rule of law.
    Mar 22 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sick of Hyperbolic Rubish [View article]
    It may be time to back off the rhetoric, but it is too early to stop the hard questioning. Moving toxic debt from one set of hands to another without a transparent, open market place is pandering to insider self interest, is an endorsement of central planning and undermines the marketplace. Why hasn't a single CDO been segmented into its various components and been marketed in a transparent public exchange (internet based)? Loan servicers obviously are willing to work with an assortment of owners. If mortgage notes have been lost, and the chances of some form of recovery are nil, it is time to mark to zero now.
    Central planners need only the resolve and some consensus from a large segment of their paid constituency and foreign lenders who are needed to fund our "revenue shortfall" in order to decree the unsecurization of CDOs in the hands of insolvent parties. Right now the parties key to a consensus can't even agree on calling a zombie a zombie. This process of resolving so-called illiquid assets is dragging out because we have not learned how to ask the right questions yet, and because the battle of the titans on how to grab their welfare check continues unresolved in the background. It is not rhetoric to acknowledge that welfare has been transferred from the public housing single mom to those who pay for elections of our elected officials. It is also telling to see who has been on the receiving end of money given to AIG and funneled through the financial system. Sick of rubbish, yes. But are we ready for the truth? No.

    Mar 8 03:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearwire: Is There Opportunity Amidst All the Fear and Uncertainty? [View article]
    Thanks for covering CLWR in professional depth. Did you look into the postential of VOIP over WIMAX to impact cell phone use?
    Mar 8 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Immediate, Implementable Solution to Toxic Assets [View article]
    Or you could do something that showed you had faith in free markets, innovation, and technology. The only reasons markets are not working right now to adjust to a massive fraud and corruption that came about by the failure of proper regulation and the acceptance of political contributions (bribes), is that Wall Street (and the banksters, AIG etc.) and Washington DC are negotiating to transfer failure from one set of baskets to other sets of baskets behind closed doors. The free market doesn't function in this environment and the economy does a time out. The only way to get ugly assets moving again is to innovate improved markets for packaged and de-packaged instruments that are sinking the economy. If you can sell individual houses, you can sell individual mortgages. Loan servicing outfits can compete for the business of the new owners.
    Mar 8 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment