Macro_Man

Mathematical Realities Will Trump the Dollar

people compare U.S. to Japan and Japan did blow up their debt..how come the Yen is strong?

Dollar Weakness Continues

This is how tops form, when all the sceptics give up their convictions. A big cause of margin expansion has come from a weaker dollar and cutting labor costs. Material and energy costs form only a small proportion of total costs. Rents, medical and food forms a large part of CPI. Sure, that is why healthcare and consumer staples have been posting good results.

For the rest, just give it time. Revenues, margins and the market will roll over sooner or later.

Stocks have gone up wild

Patience my friend...every DOG has his day :). I am waiting. 10,500 I will buy a lot of DOG. 10,300 to 10,500 will be watching closely

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Deflation mate, or at least the lack of inflation....lower revenues, lower costs (which is another man's revenues or wages), lower margins, lower labor cost, lower wages.

It is a very nice, flashy bear market rally....I am slightly long...but something that will come to a horrible or inevitable end sooner or later

Think of the amount of global fiscal stimulus and the easy money...and still we have lack of inflation, slow revenues...this is the quarter with a lot of inventory build up. Perhaps 4th quarter will have some inventory build also. After that..what?

Not a single non-financial corporate has had revenue growth yoy


On Oct 20 11:10 AM David Fry wrote:

> today's a strange day with selling on PPI which is really weird.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I think the safest course is to sell now and wait a while. You may or may not miss the last 5% or 10% of gain. But, if you go into cash and wait for a few months. You will be able to get back in at a much lower cost basis and you would have cashed in your gains.


On Oct 20 11:12 AM sacking wrote:

> Here's the article from bloomberg about new tax in Brazil
>
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=aex4NXE25Y0E
>
>
> Personally, I love Brazil and have been buying EWZ and BRF on a regular
> basis. I do hope this is a temporary blip in an otherwise nice Brazilian
> recovery.
>
> Any insights would be appreciated.

Potash Is Busting out All over

I used to be like you...until the bear market started and I started reading about technical trading.

In a bull market, fundamentals are most important. In a bear market, technicals are critical. So, I would recommend reading about technical trading. It will at a minimum reduce any potential losses


On Oct 20 09:41 AM Joseph L. Shaefer wrote:

> I envy those traders who can (or claim to be able to!) watch every
> sector and be able to leap aboard a train just as it is leaving the
> station for a wild Mr. Toad ride.
>
> It just isn't me. So I plod along, doing basic research, tearing
> into annual reports, reviewing demographic trends, and gauging investor
> sentiment. I've been in agriculture for months now. So while my train
> still sits in the station, at least I have the luxury of buying at
> leisure rather than in a panic. As a result, my money has been "sitting"
> (and collecting some nice dividends) and, since our clients are comfortable
> with the concept of ag as a long-term play, we'll get in "too early"
> without stress and enjoy the ride from what we hope are the best
> seats.
>
> So let me to the momentum of POT and MOS simply add: fundamentally
> (which counts to me) I believe they are well-managed, well-capitalized,
> and undervalued companies, as well!

Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook

We broke out of the trading range and got rejected..that was a failed signal and we sold off accordingly. Now, we are rallying. If we get all the way back to 3.10%, that would be a failed failed-signal. Which would mean we will break through 3% with speed.

It is too dangerous right now to play Treauries from the short side. Sidelines may be best until we get out of the range one way or another.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Treasuries at much lower levels in a couple of months time. I am not long Treauries, because I am not feeling too confident about them right now. But, sure as hell not getting short them

Potash Is Busting out All over

Yup, momentum is a beautiful thing until it goes against in a hurry. But, it is awesome while it lasts. Enjoy the ride! Long DBC. Booked a little profit on USO yesterday and had been long POT, but got out one day too early..like Friday 3:55PM :)

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

John: Question for you...If the dollar's weakness continues...when does it start affecting the U.S. rates? At some point overseas holders have to reevaluate their U.S. assets versus dollar depreciation. And, if does cause overseas holders to start selling Treasuries, which part of the curve gets affected more on a relative basis? Meaning, if you hold T Bills, you earn nothing and lose a few % on dollar depreciation. If you hold the long bond, you earn some interest to offset currency loss...but, of course the risk is higher

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

The massive liquidity is going more into asset bubbles than the real economy. Are we simply kicking the can down the road once again? This time it will be harder because the dollar is starting from a weaker position and commodities are much higher.

The risk of $100 oil and higher grain and metals prices is much higher now. Not sure if continued excess liquidity is the magic bullet. So, Ben doesnt repeat the mistakes of the past..he just figures out new mistakes to make.

The U.S. economy is like someone who has binged and led a hedonistic life for quite some time. the only solution is diet and exercise and moderation. Taking some easy medicine to party longer, just means the inevitable adjustment will be all the more painful. Also, the pain will fall more on the innocent than the sinners.

All the Fed has done is give Wall Street an easy pass out of its pain, but in doing so, has increased the pain on Main Street.

Why I'm Shorting Moody's

The trend is still up, difficult to make money shorting. Best to go with the flow in small size or sit on the sidelines and wait it out. if you start shorting too early, you will run out of steam when the drop starts. got to wait for some catalyst.

1. some credit event or 2. fed actually soaking up some change or 3. an impulse break out of the dollar out of the falling wedge pattern or 4. spike in interest rates or big spike in 3 month libor.

if you cant wait perhaps best to buy some long-dated out of the money cheap puts and wait for the market to collapse

Today in Commodities: Different Directions

oil certainly looks bullish and may not get the retracement you are looking for. Silver looks week, had a Reversal week while gold is not looking great.

This makes sense. If people are piling on to oil, makes sense to reduce gold and silver to reduce correlation risk

Why I'm Shorting Moody's

Looks like a good idea. What is the risk that it is an overcrowded short and there will be a spike up on a short squeeze? looks like everything is going up against the dollar

The Dollar's Decline is Slowing Down

Look at the chart, DXY is showing a "falling wedge" pattern, which is a reversal pattern and bullish. Short dollar is a crowded trade and woudn't be surprised to see dollar rally sooner or later and enjoy a multi month rally

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

I agree with you that all this will happen sooner or later. Good idea to get flat. But, why is today the top?


On Oct 15 08:08 PM Dr. O wrote:

> Today is the top in the rally. S&P at 1100, DJIA 10,000. It's
> all priced in and all that's left is to sell the news. I will be
> liquidating the remainder of my portfolio tomorrow. I even sold GLD,
> SLV, and UDN. I believe the unwind of the massive rally will necessarily
> involve a higher US dollar, weaker commodities, and lower stocks.