With Treasurys at Resistance, Will the Trend Hold? [View article]
"So, a breakout in treasuries (people flocking to 'safety') would obviously be bad news for equities."
It really depends on the causality. If treasuries break out, you could argue that the ensuing lower rates would be a positive for the stock market especially given the link between treasury yields and mortgage rates.
> Of course they're going to liquidate these huge funds as both are > so far below their old 'high water' marks that the managers can't > expect to see big incentive fees in the reasonable future. > > They can make much more by starting new funds without that 'stagger' > so they can rape the investors right away as the market recovers.
If you want to understand what is happening, just look at the Japan experience - you should be thinking deflation not inflation for a good while (10 years)...
Credit is now disappearing at a much faster pace than the Fed is printing money and this is what determines the outlook on prices.
Looking at the money supply in isolation will get you no where...
In This Spoon-Fed Rally, Never Underestimate the Herd [View article]
I agree with the author's premise that this rally is based mostly on rhetoric. It is true, however, that recent economic date is looking less dire. However, as some of the previous commentators have pointed out, the headwinds that lie ahead are still massive and we will probably see lower levels soon.
I agree that it will be difficult for China to achieve its growth target.
However, the Chinese have savings and if the PBoC reinstitutes safety nets, then it may make it easier for the Chinese to spend some of their savings and fuel some internal demand.
With Treasurys at Resistance, Will the Trend Hold? [View article]
It really depends on the causality. If treasuries break out, you could argue that the ensuing lower rates would be a positive for the stock market especially given the link between treasury yields and mortgage rates.
Bond Expert: Friday Outlook [View article]
Are we going to continue the rally in 10's or is it time for a pullback to higher yields?
Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Activity Catching Up to Oil (USO) [View article]
When will it happen (I know its over a 4 day period but couldn't find the details on USO site)?
And how does it usually affect the USO price all other things held equal?
thx.
Two Hedge Funds Close Shop [View article]
On Jun 03 12:45 PM Paul Price wrote:
> Of course they're going to liquidate these huge funds as both are
> so far below their old 'high water' marks that the managers can't
> expect to see big incentive fees in the reasonable future.
>
> They can make much more by starting new funds without that 'stagger'
> so they can rape the investors right away as the market recovers.
Bond Expert: Friday Wrap [View article]
We are kind of in no man's land with the technicals...
Given the range on Thursday and Friday - it just feels sketchy to jump in at 3.29% and 4.27%
The Dow's Weight in Gold [View article]
It's in the cards, just read them...
S&P 500 Moving Average Analysis [View article]
A year from now when they are half their current price you might be kicking yourself for not selling them...
Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap [View article]
I think you're missing the point...
If you want to understand what is happening, just look at the Japan experience - you should be thinking deflation not inflation for a good while (10 years)...
Credit is now disappearing at a much faster pace than the Fed is printing money and this is what determines the outlook on prices.
Looking at the money supply in isolation will get you no where...
In This Spoon-Fed Rally, Never Underestimate the Herd [View article]
China: Analyzing Trade, CPI Numbers [View article]
However, the Chinese have savings and if the PBoC reinstitutes safety nets, then it may make it easier for the Chinese to spend some of their savings and fuel some internal demand.