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spybreaker

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  • Venezuela reportedly will allow its state-owned energy company to form joint ventures with PetroChina (PTR) and Chevron (CVX) to manage $6B in loans designed to reverse declining oil output. Agreements have been reached on terms of a $2B credit from CVX for the Petroboscan venture and a $4B loan from China for Sinovensa. Similar deals may be in the works with Shell (RDS.A) and Repsol. [View news story]
    just curious... what's wrong with helping develop heavy oil deposits?
    May 17, 2013. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would I Not Sell Dividend Stocks Even After A 1000% Gain? [View article]
    I used to be in the northeast (NY and then CT) and then moved to TX - I just couldn't stand the taxes apart from the crazy cost of living. If you lived in NY city, you paid Federal Tax, NY state tax and then a city tax! And since homes cost anywhere from 400,000 to 700,000 to whatever depending on where you lived, you paid crazy taxes for that too.

    When I moved to Houston, TX, there was a much vibrant market for my kind of work so I even got paid 15% more. People say that Texas property taxes are very high...but that is meaningless when you can get the same standard of living and house for 50% to 65% less so you actually end up paying less property taxes in absolute terms...the mistake that some people make when they move down to Texas is that because they buy bigger and lavish homes with the money they got from selling homes in the north east states, they pay more in taxes. I have a few friends and relatives who moved from Philli, PA and they just love the fact that cost of living so low compared to Philli. My friends and relatives in Texas just don't know how good they have it.
    May 17, 2013. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would I Not Sell Dividend Stocks Even After A 1000% Gain? [View article]
    Ajayyy, one aspect to buying dividend growth stocks is to see what their payout ratio is - this tells you if they have enough cashflow to sustain their dividend growth. Also see how much short term and long term debt they have...if they have too much debt, then if something goes wrong with the business or there is a liquidity crunch, then the company starts having fundamental issues. So these are important risk factors to consider when buying REITs and mREITs.

    Part of my yardstick for buying dividend growth stocks is to look for moderate PE (<20, ideally less than 15), payout ratio less than 60% consistent dividend growth, dividend of atleast 2% and regular monitoring of the business.

    With all the attention given to dividend stocks thanks to low interest rates on bonds, experts are now talking about a dividend bubble.... so keep doing your due diligence.
    May 17, 2013. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) will boost its workforce by 83% this year to take it to 165K as it picks up its pace of store growth in the nation. The restaurant operator has less than half of the fast-food market share that Yum Brands claims, but the gap is narrowing with KFC China suffering some turmoil. [View news story]
    probably china and india...that's where the growth is.
    May 17, 2013. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would I Not Sell Dividend Stocks Even After A 1000% Gain? [View article]
    The trick is to find good dividend growth stocks of stable companies which are fairly valued and hold on to those. Some of these quality companies have sizable dips in the event of bad news such as an earnings miss or bad forecast... One such example was McDonald's (MCD) last year which had a sizable dip from ~100 to ~83 in November. If you are going long and confident about how the company does business, then that was a good time to buy such a stock and accumulate. The stock price has recovered since then and for those who bougth in the low to mid 80s during that dip, they stand with an approximate 15% gain excluding dividend payments which were around ~3.8% at the time (it's ~3.2% now with the share price at ~101).

    As a rule of thumb, I avoid technical, financial and airline industries as there are too many complicated dependencies and risks that I can't contemplate. I had bought stocks in these companies earlier but when I decided to readjust my portfolio to a dividend growth model, I sold them off booking whatever gains I had got. Some of those stocks have gone further up since then but no regrets - any gain is a good thing.
    May 16, 2013. 05:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDC cuts its 2013 IT spending growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.5%, citing macro issues and weak PC demand; 2012 growth was 5.6%. Gartner, which includes a bigger array of products/services in its numbers, forecast 4.1% growth last month. IDC now sees U.S. software spending (MSFT, ORCL) growing 6%, down from a prior 7%. Storage hardware revenue (EMC, NTAP) is only expected to grow 2.4%, down from 2012's 6.1%, and carrier spending on networking gear (CSCO, JNPR, ALU, CIEN) is expected to grow just 1.1% vs. 5.8% in 2012. Recent earnings reports and warnings (I, II, III, IV) help explain the subdued outlook. [View news story]
    so why is EMC and VMWare up today by ~4% and ~2% respectively.... one of those usual irrational market moves?
    May 16, 2013. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Trainer's $240 Apple Price Target Analysis Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
    As has been amply demonstrated PE is meaningless for stocks like Amazon, AAPL... price movement seems to be based on sentiment and not fundamentals.
    May 16, 2013. 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Trainer's $240 Apple Price Target Analysis Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
    With the way the stock is going, it looks like there won't be much to add up.
    May 16, 2013. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    Good move. It won't hurt to cut losses and offset them on capital gains. It's hard but I've done it before and never regretted it. Live, learn and move on. There are lots of stocks out there that will give you average to handsome returns. The hyped up stocks are the ones that seem vulnerable to upsets.
    May 14, 2013. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece catches an upgrade - to B- from CCC at Fitch which cites the rebalancing of the economy with "clear progress" made on eliminating the fiscal and current account deficits. "The price has been high in terms of lost output and rising unemployment and the capacity for recovery is still in doubt." The Greek ETF (GREK +1.7%). [View news story]
    or... upgraded from junk to trash.
    May 14, 2013. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    Apple - great company. The stock? aaah not so great.

    If it doesn't cross $500 by the end of the year, I'm trimming my position to offset capital gains. All my other dividend growth stocks have been performing super great so far and the icing on the cake is the great dividends which I can reinvest. AAPL? what a party pooper. I went off my investing criteria and put some money in a tech stock like AAPL and I was thoroughly punished for it. I enjoyed watching the stock go up from 500 to 700 and added to my position on it's way down to the 400s. Well, inspite of all the fundamentals, the sentiment on this stock sucks so what else can you expect. It's the "boring" stocks that have been sound, faithful and rewarding. AAPL is like an albatross around my portfolio's neck - won't reach break even so I can rebalance it. That's why I'm thinking that if this stock acts like how EMC or Cisco following the dotcom bust, I'm definately going to sell for a loss and offset my capital gains from this year.
    May 14, 2013. 06:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    I was wondering what happened to "sell in may and go away" and realized today that it only applies to AAPL this year.
    May 14, 2013. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) says it will cut Angus burgers from its menu and will expand its line of Quarter Pounder items. The shift in strategy from the company is another bid to gain market share of value-oriented customers and follow the path of QSR rivals also increasing their focus on $1 menu items. [View news story]
    The Angus burgers were one of the few descent burgers of MCD. The other being the double quarter pounder with cheese.
    May 10, 2013. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera - A Terribly Positioned Company [View article]
    I guess I just have their assiago (cheese) bagels in mind... that's the only bagel I get from there... don't know about the rest. My usual bagel place is Einstein Bagels...the only reason we go to Panera bread is for my wife to study and I read stuff on the internet... we end up buying a coffee for myself and she gets a sandwich and you get a discount on the bagel or something. If we just have a coffee and cookie in mind, we go to starbucks...but Panera bread usually has more space compared to starbucks.
    May 2, 2013. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera - A Terribly Positioned Company [View article]
    Not a big fan of Panera... found it to be a bit on the pricey side. They recently introduced an alfredo pasta something... for 9ish bucks, you get a cereal sized bowl and their fossilized bread. Taste was ok. Felt like I was conned after buying that. That's the last time I went there for a meal. I like their bagels though and the fact they have free wifi...there's a way to hack the wifi during peak hours. Just change your computer's mac address and you'll get through.
    May 2, 2013. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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