Seeking Alpha

MRFINANCE

MRFINANCE
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View MRFINANCE's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Continuation Of Defensive Approach In 2Q Forces Change Of Thesis On ARMOUR From Bullish To Neutral [View article]
    First of all, it is the analysts who missed the mark on EPS - not the other way around. ARR, nor any company for that matter, should be judged based on how good the analysts predictions are. Their job is to maximize shareholder value - not chase analysts predictions. Second, some investors prefer a less volatile, more predictable financial performance that hedging provides. Just because their competitors are reducing hedging, doesn't make it the right strategy for ARR. Third, even if they reduce their dividend to equal earnings, the yield would still be north of 12% - and still higher than most of their peers. No need to be greedy! Finally, if rates jump and stock prices of AAR's peers tank, I'll bet you'll be signing a different tune then!
    Aug 21 07:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts question AGNC strategy [View news story]
    Me too. The guy is crazy like a fox!
    Feb 4 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bears Are Running An Obama-Campaign Like Bear Raid [View article]
    In the meantime, there is still plenty of money to be made playing the short side of this stock!
    Oct 22 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bears Are Running An Obama-Campaign Like Bear Raid [View article]
    I watched K-Mart stock follow the same glide path over 10 years ago. My lesson learned: Don't try to catch a falling safe. I know you have a Long position, but you may want to consider getting out (while you still can).
    Oct 21 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital (NLY) co-CIO Kris Konrad exercises options to buy 20K shares of stock at $13.25 each, taking his stake in the company higher by about 11% to nearly 200K shares. (Form 4[View news story]
    It's a great deal if you can buy 20K shares at that price!
    Mar 25 04:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The opportunity for CreXus (CXS) from sitting on Annaly's (NLY) far-larger balance sheet should be "exponential" says Annaly CEO Denahan on the earnings call. Annaly is also receiving large principal pay downs each month - money that used to go to new MBS purchases, or (lately) share buybacks, but now can go to the higher-yielding commercial space (the acquisition is not yet a done deal). [View news story]
    The referenced "opportunity" for CreXus is not obvious to me. Please explain.
    Feb 8 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera: Don't Ignore These Red Flags [View article]
    I agree. All those warning signs are telling you something. CIM is 10 miles of bad road. Buyer beware!
    Jan 16 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: The New CFPB Rules Could Help This Sector [View article]
    If it is true that bank lending standards are currently tighter than CFPB, then this is a huge opportunity for banks to loosen their lending standards and still be shielded from future litigation. You know those greedy bankers will loosen their standards to write more loans, given the green light to do so!
    Jan 16 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital (NLY) is reiterated a Sell with price target cut to $13.50 from $16 at FBR as its proposed purchase of CreXus is admittance its business model of Agency MBS purchases is toast in the current environment. Isn't the purchase of CreXus a step in changing the business model though? [View news story]
    Oh, the business model is toast! Surprise.

    I can't figure out what direction NLY wants to go. Buy back shares? Buy another REIT? Increase leverage? Sounds to me like a management team scrambling to find answers.
    Nov 13 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly (NLY) slides 3% in early action following last night's earnings report - likely the worst of the mREIT sector - and the just-completed conference call. "Our balance sheet is not a trading vehicle," says the CEO, maybe disappointing those hoping for asset sales to lock in high MBS prices and fund buybacks/dividends. Nevertheless, book value is $16.60. It's hard to see the shares - now at $15.41 - a whole lot lower. [View news story]
    Don't be fooled into thinking earnings aren't important - for any kind of business. Earnings allow dividends to be paid. And while there is a timing difference between tax earnings and GAAP earnings, eventually they must come into equilibrium. Beware!
    Nov 6 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly (NLY) slides 3% in early action following last night's earnings report - likely the worst of the mREIT sector - and the just-completed conference call. "Our balance sheet is not a trading vehicle," says the CEO, maybe disappointing those hoping for asset sales to lock in high MBS prices and fund buybacks/dividends. Nevertheless, book value is $16.60. It's hard to see the shares - now at $15.41 - a whole lot lower. [View news story]
    The P/E ratio is still ridiculously high. While liquidation (book) value is reasonable, I won't touch it until the P/E returns to the lower stratosphere.
    Nov 6 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management Sees Interest Spread Drop By Half Since Last Year [View article]
    Shocking!
    Nov 6 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Plan Is Good News For Shareholders [View article]
    My guess is that they will not buy back any shares. Just the announcement alone is enough to get the desired reaction from the stock price.
    Oct 22 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Plan Is Good News For Shareholders [View article]
    Their highest risk assets produce the largest interest rate spread. Do you really think they will liquidate their most profitable assets? If they do, the gain will be a one-time boost to earnings. Then what will they do for an encore next quarter? Regardless, there is no doubt that the buy-back announcement will be received favorably by the market, and the share price will get a nice bump today. But this one-time bump will soon disappear as investor focus returns to profitability (and dividends).
    Oct 17 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The only question raised by Annaly's (NLY) repurchase plan is "what took the board so long?" With shares trading below book value and $100B+ of MBS on its books (much of it trading above par), the company just sold high-priced assets, cut its prepayment exposure by $1.5B, and used the funds to pick up cheap shares. [View news story]
    Don't dismiss the P/E ratio. Earnings always drive dividends and therefore, is a predictor of future dividends. As a CPA, you know that the difference between GAAP income and taxable income is mostly "timing". Over the long run, the timing issues disappear and GAAP and tax income come into alignment. I won't pay 50 X earnings for any stock.
    Oct 17 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
22 Comments
18 Likes