SmBlkBob

Bankers, Economists Say Gold Is a Bubble: Here's Why You Should Ignore Them

My fear is that in an upcoming collapse that gold will drop along with everything else.
Over the last year, maybe longer, investing in gold especially etf's has become as normal as investing in any stock.
The desire for gains and fear of losses I don't believe is any different for the average investor.
While large institutions are playing a different investment game the average investor has only one. Buy when it's cheap, bail out when it starts to go down.
This time however, the downside will be huge. The few investors that have regained some of their losses won't wait but a heart beat to sell this time around. Average investors got hurt last time by waiting but not this time. Many have pulled out of mutual funds in favor of having more control over their money.
This is going to result in panic selling at some point when investors feel they are about to loose it all again.

While we can argue about value of gold versus inflation versus etc etc etc, the real story will be how gold lost value in a direct relationship to how the market is falling.
While at one time I would have argued that gold is a protection against inflation, I now no longer believe that.

Bob

If This Is a Recovery...

My prediction is huge free fall beginning in March 2010.

This may be accelerated depending on how Black Friday goes.
My feeling is there are still enough people with credit to get through Christmas but not beyond.

Judging by how friends are acting however, I vote for an early free fall.

Bob

The Real Job Loss Story: Death of Small Business

Feb 2008 was the month I called it quits after almost 40 years as a small contractor.
Insurance rates had just gone up again as the pool of companies had gone down and someone had to make up the loss of profits.
Suppliers were doing away with some of their discounts due to how many of their customers were WAY behind in their balances.
When accounts were canceled, contractors began running their businesses based on their credit card balances at Home Depot and Lowes.
Banks began withholding periodic payments for a longer time on projects using every excuse in the book to justify making people wait.
End customers had just watched their investments tank and were canceling projects, even some that were in the initial phases of construction.
Cities began charging higher permit fees to make up for the loss of revenues.
Workers began working part time on weekends competing against the very companies they worked for.
Credit lines were reduced and often contractors were forced to back away from a project as they were still waiting to get paid for the last completed one.
Contractors began bidding work for amounts that were designed to just meet payroll forcing down the ultimate and fair price of the work. Forcing other companies to close.
So, in Feb. I sat down and figured out what it would cost to weather the coming storm and it just didn't make sense anymore. Past downturns were not as bad as this one was going to ultimately be.
This is not the past tense quite yet.
We have not seen the worst of this melt down. Unemployment insurance and working part time under the table have kept many alive. That will soon come to an end as well unless the government continues to prop up the unemployed.
The figures on the unemployed are conveniently fudged to make it look better than it really is.
I actually think Christmas might not be as bad as some think as many people still have credit and will be trying to get in one more normal Christmas before withdrawing completely from buying anything.
True, contracting is not the entire picture in the economy but all of us look at the current picture and can see NO green shoots anywhere.

Today in Commodities: Potential Reversal Looming

I just love the people who keep calling a top to gold. If I had bailed when this talk first started I'd have missed out on a huge upside.
Now, after all the trash talk, even if gold drops I've still made money.

So, do you feel lucky punk? Drive the price down so I can buy even more.

Bob

Gold and the Worldwide Flight from Paper Currency

Agreed Hunter

Any pull back and I'm back in big time

Bob

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

It's simple really. Perhaps only a "man in the street" type outlook but:

Do you have faith in banks? NO (over 100 belly up)
Do you have faith in the market? NO (where's the growth?)
Do you have faith in government? NO (you are kidding right?)
Do you have faith in Obama? NO (ditto)
Did your neighbor find a new job yet? NO (he's quit looking)
Are employment figures accurate? NO

Is gold still gold? YES

The only ones wanting you to believe gold is heading down are the ones who want in at a lower price. Personally, I hope they convince you as I want to buy more.

Bob

Why I'm Wary of the Gold Trade

There must be a "bad market timing" club out there lol

Anyway, I sold half my positions in gld. Have taken the profit and now will sit and wait to see what shakes out.

Gets much lower, I just buy again. No brainer

Bob

Why Gold Remains My Favorite Investment

I sold 50% of gld yesterday but will jump right back in on any pull back.

Confidence is high but thought a little profit taking was in order. I'm sure I'll regret it after seeing a further rise early Wednesday but market timing has never been my strong suit.

My feeling is the broader market will pull gold down a bit but I have no doubt about the 'up' future of gold.

Bob

Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun

IMHO,
WAY too much referring to the past including blaming everyone who's had anything to do with the economy in either party.

Too little being done to actually manage the problem with a long term perspective.
Government, in general, is solving the problems based solely on the next election cycle NOT what should actually be done.

Excellent article and one of the reasons I'll remain overweight in Gold for the time being.

You don't have to be an economist to see what's happening right in your neighborhood. A popular book, which I hate to admit I can't remember the title to, stated that to know where to invest you only have to monitor the stores etc that you frequent and base your strategies on what you observe. What store/company do you frequent that you would invest in right now?
Other than perhaps Wal Mart, traffic is down everywhere I go.
(Which is a statement in and of itself)
I've even turned down my addiction to Dunkin Donuts.
But we still have to eat and I still see people buying gas although in much older cars.
For now, it would seem, commodities are the only sure thing but at what price?
The next few months will not be pretty.

Bob

Newspapers: Why Bail Out Another Failed Industry?

I have friends in the newspaper business and one thing is very clear. The downward spiral began with the shear numbers of internet sites where you could buy and sell almost anything.

Few realize the extent of classified advertising in papers but the newspapers themselves do.

The one thing that has always puzzled me is why newspapers waited so long to create Craig's List type sites for themselves?
They all knew what was coming and could even predict the future yet they continued with the same old "tired" business model.

I'm afraid now it's too late. The only "papers" that will survive are ones you can pick up for free on the street corner and are advertiser supported. In other words, an internet business model.

The bailouts of dying models has to stop.

Bob

It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas

I've been watching the rant against gold going higher for many weeks now. Thankfully, I didn't sell.
Now if it tanks, I've made money in the time since I was first advised to sell.
If you don't have the courage to get in now, at least "pretend" to buy at this level and see where you'll be 2 months from now. Remember, you can sell at any time between now and two months.
My guess is you'll make money.

I'll sit here and watch the dollar tank while watching for a meaningful pull back in gold. When and if it ever comes.

I just don't have the "courage" to be in equities right now.

Bob

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

Granted, Apple may be a better mouse trap but I've got too much invested in PC to go out and start all over. Sorry, not going to happen even if I agree I'd be better off in the long run.

If I need a totally new system for a particular use, Yes, I'd go with Apple.

What many posters on here fail to realize is that the majority of buyers are not looking for the very best they can get. They want something that does the job (most of the time) and at a cheap price. Apple does not fit that description in any way.
Paying more to use the same MS spreadsheet doesn't make sense to anyone.

Sidenote: With all the excitement over the Iphone, it's interesting that my friends who own them are always borrowing my phone to make calls. What's with that?

Bob

Allegiant Drops After Earnings: Decline or Launching Pad?

Correction to above:

Almost everyone will board ahead of you and that includes those WITHOUT advance seat assignments.

Allegiant Drops After Earnings: Decline or Launching Pad?

I fly Allegiant twice a month and have done so since they began operations. My only complaint is their boarding process which has got to be cutting into their advance pricing on seats and pre-boarding.
There is no longer any point in paying for pre-boarding if you only have a small carry on as you board ahead of non pre-boarding flyers even if they have seat assignments.
Many fellow flyers have also begun opting out of advance seating assignments as what's the point? Almost everyone will board ahead of you and that includes those WITH seat assignments.
The "new" trick is to just wait until the very end of boarding as you'll most likely be able to pick what ever seat is left and perhaps a row to yourself before those with advance seat assignments/priority boarding realize there are some really nice empty seats.
The non stop feature is wonderful and I hope this airline continues although I wish they would adopt SouthWest's boarding process.

Bob

How to Fix Our Economy: Stop Obama’s Recklessness

What a poor excuse for a reporter? If you can call it that.
Just repeating what others have said without a single thought coming from just him other than gold is heading down. Right!

Gold is the only thing that is going to save most from total loss of everything they've saved.
I'm not saying invest all you have in gold or gld, just be smart enough to ignore reporters like this one who haven't a clue.