LookingConfident's  Instablog

Newscorp's [Johnathon] Miller [is quoted as saying, that he] believes that the glut of ad networks will soon thin out—with only a handful of top players remaining.

[He was then quoted as saying, that] .. The remainder of the online ad network business is likely..

"to be disintermediated.  and move to an exchange model", he said

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/board_postview.asp?a=PVS&postID=492918&boardID=2117&sym=LOK

Ad/Pub Networks?

Heed the advice of Johnathan Miller & (certainly) get together with Looksmart (quickly) or, die on your own sword of ignorance. PERISH.

(In My Honest Opinion)

LC

We have done all the "traffic comparisons" here, over @ ShareCafe in OZ (Turn against Looksmart - re: Is this, where we are at? (b)) and it's reasonable to think that this "gang of 65" (plus one - Ted West) should surely give Looksmart some more rein (just a little, perhaps?), following the close of the market, on Monday?

(Looksmart report it's Q3 Results on Monday)

Particularly when taking into consideration that (on Nov 4th and 5th) adTech New York will (should), be the biggest event for quite a long time that Looksmart have attended. And it should be one that Co attendees can (finally) get to talk about the business, in a much more direct and positive light. ad:tech New York - The Event For Digital Marketing! 

FULL Story: re: Q3/Q4, a brilliant 2010 & behond...(1)

...................re: Q3/Q4, a brilliant 2010 & behond..(2)

Cheers to all patient shareholders. (I think "we" just about have it right)

:)

Disclosure: Holding LOOK stock.

LC

 At a recent OMMA Behavioral conference [ OMMA AdNets - Los Angeles ] Rich Frankel, president of Rocket Fuel [ Campaigns run better on Rocket Fuel™ ] points out that ad exchanges, in trading ad inventory & selling to the highest bidder, are looking for efficiency & Commoditization. "A huge challenge for the Internet for 2009 is understanding the value of the commodity," he says.....

Frankel also argues that the exchanges may be adding some value in marginally increasing CPMs [and are said to be generally lifting prices for display Ads] for publishers and [are said to be certainly] helping the buyer bid efficiently, but the core problem is in discovering the actual value of the impression that is coursing through the system. ....

Full Story: http://www.sharecafe.com.au/board_postview.asp?a=PVS&postID=492363&boardID=2117&sym=LOK

Disclosure: Holding LOOK shares.

Cheers!!

I'd like to think it can ...And maybe, it just might do so .....

Without being at all critical, shareholder Texas16qld says in a post over on Yahoo Finance [ Re: will this flow onto LOOK ]......

##... I suggest you listen to the previous quarterly CC.

Looksmart have already stated that revenues will be significantly lower. But traffic should be (according to Ted West, and confirmed by alexa.com) a lot higher, due to the fact Looksmart are getting many new clients to try their platform at a low price....##

Yes, but I have read it all a little different than that Tex ...

And with what I have re-read of my notes taken, it doesn't point to "revenues" as being significantly lower in Q3, at all.

Sure, with higher TAC (to be paid out by looksmart, to 'attract' that higher quality traffic), there is no doubt that the "gross margins" retained on that traffic, will naturally be lower. But over-all revenues?

Increased traffic will make up for the lower margins Looksmart will end up receiving for it's delivering to advertisers of quality conversions, that are at a lower cost per conversion. Is MHO.

And as a result (Looksmart's CEO Ted West himself, actually says in that CC following Q2), that it's....

<'Optimal Pricing at campaigns has consistently increased consumer conversion, delivered conversions at a lower cost per conversion and has earned LookSmart an increase in it's advertiser budgets'.>

(Or, what is in reality, an increase in it's 'volume' for both "queries" and "paid clicks". no? - Remembering also, that he also advised that .<"During the second quarter, the platform processed well over 1 billion search queries and delivered over 2.2 million paid clicks, "per day".>)

Looksmart's 'commitment to improve it's network quality and advertiser value with it's "Optimal Pricing"[does]have direct implications for our near-term financial performance, specifically in relationship to "gross margins", is what CEO Ted West actually says.

So it's a fair to then assume that any increased traffic can only point to more of this "lower gross margin" type, advertiser involvements. Ted West said:

<"During the second quarter, we began to proactively raise our traffic acquisition costs on the advertising network in order to attract more high quality traffic and to increase higher value paid clicks delivered to our advertisers.[Better ROI's]- This action is consistent with our long-term objective to improve advertiser return on investment performance[ROI]and value on our search advertising networks">

< In beta testings of optimal pricing with several existing advertisers during the second quarter, optimal pricing at campaigns has consistently increased consumer conversion, delivered conversions at a lower cost per conversion and as a result earned LookSmart increased advertiser budget.

I would like to point out that we believe the optimal pricing feature set is unique to the non-proprietary keyword search segment when delivered at our scale of operation. Now that optimal pricing is in place on the AdCenter and following the successful beta launch, it will be rolled out across our search advertiser base in the coming quarters. We believe that improves traffic quality together with optimal pricing, will be critical to growing our existing advertiser budgets, to expanding our advertiser base and to attracting a greater volume of higher performing publisher search traffic over time.

That being said, our As we purposefully upgrade our network traffic quality in order to meet advertiser performance return on investment requirements, we expect to see a corcommitment to improve network quality and advertiser value with optimal pricing has direct implications for our near-term financial performance, specifically in relationship to gross margins. responding increase in traffic acquisition cost.

Gross margin compression in our core advertising networks business will result directly from this practice. Despite anticipated near-term margin compression, we firmly believe that by improving network traffic quality and providing advertisers with the tools to set prices in order to optimize their returns, we will strengthen LookSmart's market and competitive position.>

I hope this clears up a few things for others, in regards to the thought of revenues being lower, for Q3. It's a matter of exactly how much of that increased traffic (as has been witnessed on Alexa), relates to all of the above. Alexa, in 'real terms' has shown traffic to Looksmart.com (AdCenter) to have increased fivefold, in the Q3 period. (Over Q2 traffic)

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Looksmart.com

If Looksmart were to have only "doubled it's traffic" (in Q3) and has paid out as much as double in TAC, (with an increase in that higher ROI [quality] traffic being offered), Q2 revenues (of $12M for it's advertising network) could then reasonably be imagined, to have "doubled", also. No?

And with Looksmart's own "expense management" being a constant (regardless of whatever the volume of traffic is, during Q3), what would an approximate "five times" increase in traffic result in, in terms of revenues?

Yes, it remains to be seen.

Cheers!!

LC

Disclosure: Shareholder

The Kev Carmody song "Droving Woman" (as sung by Glenn Richards, Paul Kelly and Missy Higgins) clearly tells us of the harsh reality of droving in Australia's outback. Grab a drink and sit back and enjoy this great song. Hope you like it as much as I do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR4ioLnFWq4

DROVING WOMAN

She buried him down on the edge of town
Where the brigalow suckers on the cemetery creep
She stood with them children in a heavy brown gown
What you want you just can't always keep

"I'm sorry", I says, "I knew him so well"
Though your body is young you just never can tell
When the hand of fate rings the final death knell"
She just turned with the saddest of smiles

She says "At the start well we knewed it so hard
We were always dealt the severest of cards
Honeymoon spent droving Jamieson's stock
Through the wildest winter you seen

Romantic notions of horses and land
They were soon dispelled as a fantasised dream
Watching cattle at night in the mid-winter cold
Turns a person, both wiry and old

The flame of the breakfast fire'd be dead
As the sun rose up he'd be miles up ahead
I'd be breaking the camp there and rolling the beds
While he fanned the stock wider for feed

When the weather turned sour with the onset of rain
An' the truck'd bog down to the axle mains
He'd move ahead with pack saddles and chains
And I'd wait in the mud by the road

With the blankets and canvas there hung out to dry
With nothing for heat 'cause you couldn't light a fire
With no stock permit for the forthcoming shire
The dog'd whimper in the winter wind rain

Cattle don't camp where they're sloshing in rain
They keep walking all night like a dog on a chain
He'd be red eyed and weary with a pack horse gone lame
I'd sit miles behind in the mud

It was down through Charleville up to Julia Creek
Living on syrup and damper and salted corn meat
We had nothing but the 'roos and the mailman to meet
We'd move up and down with the rains

But them inland skies have the starriest of nights
With the dance of the fire throwing flickering lights
The beauty of it's sunsets were a constant delight
I felt that nature had let me intrude

The enormous vastness of them inland plains
Gives you a lonely contentment to which you can't put a name
It's satisfied glow city folks seldom attain
They spend life on a right rigid rail

The kids got their schooling from the government mail
We posted their work in at each cattle sale
They considered the learning a self imposed jail
They'd rather help their father and fail

Early last month at the end of the dry
He was given a horse nobody could ride
Alert were his ears with a fire in his stride
He was young and his spirit was wild

To catch him each morning was an hour long battle
We had to collar rope his near side to throw on the saddle
He'd bite and he'd strike, he made my nerves rattle
Pandemonium reigned with each ride

It was a hot summers' mornin' at the government bore
There was stillness around that I'd never felt before
How could he know it was fate at his door
That was stealthily watchin' his moves

He mounted up quick taking slack from the reins
Grasped a full hand of hair from the horses long mane
He'd just hit the saddle when the horse went insane
Churning dust in a frenzy of fear

The girth on the saddle let go at the ring
The surcingle slipped it was impossible to cling
The horse felt it go made a desperate fling
He was thrown to the length of the reins

I heard his spine snap like a 'roo shooters' shot
He'd busted his back on the concreted trough
Sickness and fear were the feelings I got
For the doctor was a six hour drive

I looked at his face and his colour turned white
He turned slowly and said "I can't make it till night
My body is broken, I'm bleedin' inside"
And the life slowly drained from his eyes

I'll sell up the plant and I'll move here to town
Before the winter returns with a chill on the ground
For what I've just lost can seldom be found
I was blessed with the gentlest of men

Eventually the children will move to the east
But I couldn't stand the bustle of even a quiet city street
I'll stay in the scrub here where my heart really beats
For some dogs grow too old for change.

LC

I read little from The Motley Fool these days. For many reasons. Yet an article today did catch my eye just now and I have stolen much from it to make a point.  And it's fair to say, that in any marketplace being the biggest doesn't necessarily mean, that it'll be the best. Far from it.

Building a 'niche' business to operate within a proven market (I'm sure), can often be shown to be more profitable than that of the biggest operator, within that very same marketplace. - And efficiencies are so  measurable (in both examples), with the clear leader standing out like the proverbial DB's, fully exposed to all other players, to then, come along and take their own (specific) share of the spoils to be had.

(Some points taken from the article, follow. .....Full story below.)

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