Nonsense with Greek mathematical symbols attached.
The fed funneled money to DC and New York. The two hottest real estate markets in the US. Amazing. I can't writ an equation with this, but I'll try: C(o)rr/up)=t
EVERY commodity is up in the last decade. copper 500%. oil was deemed $5 forever in 99
Morons like this author will destroy the wealth of all that worship at the altar of the Fed. Inflation is mandate.
BTW, my double degree in electrical engineering and computer engineering in the early 80's created a salary DOUBLE my entire cost of education the very first year. and taxes were less, giving more disposable income....Today? You'd be lucky to 70% of the cost at the cheapest school.....
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
If you could pick up your house and put it in your pocket, and exchange it freely, anywhere in the world, your argument might make sense. Real estate and gold are completely different assets and not at all comparable. At the extreme, there are plenty of houses in the world that are worth far less than their cost to build, built in locations which make no economic sense. The value of a house is a proxy for the local disposable income. Period.
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
1) There is no way out of the current dollar paradigm. This is mathematical fact based on the $100 trillion plus unfunded liability, all based in dollar FRN obligations for medicare, ssn, and govt pensions. These are all obligations which we have promised Americans, based on a debt-based currency. Every "promise" is a debt. Every future IOU is a dollar created FRN. The only way out is to reneg on the very structure of the FRN - or - welch on the agreement....(yeah right - ever hear a boomer complain about how they earned their million dollar entitlement, when they only put in 50 grand? - not going to happen)
2) So create a new FRN. That is how Weimar Germany paid their pensioners 90 years ago....ditto for Argentina a decade ago. It MUST happen. There is no way out. It is impossible to grow out of.
3) I think that folks need to move the chess pieces in advance of this. How much of our GDP is based on BS FRN "fat". What will pharma sales be when medicare no longer functions the way it is today or when government can no longer support their regulation created monopoly? Or the education cartel? Military Industrial complex? Many industries are in this boat. Or what if bankers really need to bank w/ real risk? I suspect this is a 30% reduction in GDP or so. It is big. At least 15%. Like the author said, if someone wrote an article like this in 2006 the "forest would echo with laughter."
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
Amen
Sick? With what? Terminal cancer and 4 months to live? Booked and can't move the calendar around? Give me a break. If it were THAT important I would think that the planners of this event could move JH around.
No, speculation on what, not why, is critical. Who announces they will miss something 6 months in advance? Very strange.
The Feds Are Apparently Now 'Printing' Precious Metals [View article]
Brooksley Born testified in front of Congress in 1998 to discuss the dangers of an unregulated, "dark pool" derivative market. At that time she said it was a very dangerous and large $28.73 trillion at that time.
It is now well over a quadrillion. 500 times larger. That is how you suppress it long term. You just keep making bigger and bigger bets. Of course, there is a limit. When the exchange is called out and demands are made, it all evaporates. Like the CDS' did in the mortgage market. They wrote stupid loans, slapped a fictitious CDS on it, and all risk was "sort of" removed....until it was called. "What do you mean I have to pay out on the mortgage failure? I thought I just got to collect the premium?" said AIG.
Paper price suppression is this seasons CDS fiasco.
We are all going to get a painful lesson in banking reality when this happens and Thomas Jefferson's and Andrew Jackson's warnings will resonate loudly. Banks are more dangerous than standing armies. Reality will bite very hard. I just hope that when this happens that the ignorant populous realizes that it was Jamie Dimon and his ilk (lots of ilk, there) that caused this....just so they could squeeze out tens of millions for themselves....they produced two things: systemic destruction personal gain.
I'm just trying to help you not lose money. Sorry for the consideration. You have to admit, history matters. I am blown away that an entire industry flourished, going from virtually nothing to more than $250 Billion and AMD could only create what it is. A very poorly ran chip company. It is horrible. One of THE worst. This is not opinion, it is fact. Take the last five years. Intel never lost money. Neither did nVidia, nor altera, nor Linear...neither did ARM. But AMD did. Four out of five years for a total loss of $3 a share or so. Granted, most of this loss came from the ATI albatross, but that is what stupid managers do.....Its recent history sucks, its long term sucks, and they are so broke that intel outspends them on R&D 6:1...(Intel has doubled R&D spending in the last 5 years while AMD has slashed it 20%)...which really tells a great future story for AMD (sarc)
Please disconnect technical successes from stock price success. This site is not called "Seeking faster CPU speeds" - It is all about stock price performance. Now if you are arguing that AMD has had technological successes AND has failed miserably financially, well then, you are just making my point even more. I have been in the chip biz since the early 80's. AMD was my first employer. At that time Intel and AMD were neck and neck. CPU's were 16 bits, single digit Mhz, and hot (literally). The difference between the two companies was very little. AMD was hiring the best talent on the planet and treated them like rock stars. AMD was literally one or two quarters away from overtaking Intel in sales in 1983. Who knew what lie ahead? That was the best it would ever get. Granted, their aquisition of Supergen was genius, but alas, they squandered that too..... The difference between Intel and AMD was management. Intel was disciplined, thoughtful, methodical, AMD was wild west cowboy and irresponsible. Fiscally, that difference is literally worth 300 times performance delta.... In 1987, if one had simply taken $3k and bought Intel, while shorting AMD (nearly risk free) one would have a million dollars. Not many trades like that. My point is that history of AMD is that technology doesn't matter. Somehow the idiotic management will screw it up....I've got 40 years of data to back that up. I've often mused that Intel only keeps AMD around because it allows them to tell the DOJ that they have competition (how else could have they bought the CPU division from DEC in the 90's?). No one wants to be a monopoly....and if you are nearly a monopoly have competition which sucks....AMD...... And Intel yields 4% div at a 10PE.... AMD = A Money Destroyer..this is historical fact.
I thought telling people what you think was the idea of SA ....anyway, my point is that analyzing AMD and coming up with "turn arounds arguments" is illogical. In four decades the company has been nothing but an abysmal failure. Consider all the success stories in the chip industry. When AMD started TOTAL WW chip sales were a little over One billion in sales. Now it is over what? 250B? And during that entire episode, all AMD could do was destroy its own market cap 95%. How do you fail like that? And what idiot would put good money back into that kind of failure? The author looks young and I appreciate giving companies second chances, but giving AMD any hope is an obvious act of fiscal negligent irresponsibility. Why does AMD performs so poorly? Making money in semiconductors is difficult. It is one of the few industries that does not benefit from cronyism with the government. Hence, consumers enjoy very low prices and chip providers are subjected to the most challenging of capitalistic circumstances. (imagine if healthcare were like the chip biz.....) The smart management gravitates towards the best companies and the rest? Yup, they go to the likes of AMD....and the stock goes from the upper left to the lower right. Peace!
Pull up a lifelong chart of AMD. Back to 1980. It is a tragic story, steeped in a culture of horrible management. Could it go to $20 sure. But it may not and it will go much lower. That deal to take on NVDA w debt was moronic. Awful. There have been some good dead cat bounce trades. In 1983 it was THE place to work. It was in striking distance of overtaking Intel in sales.....It was given a top spot as one of the best companies to work for. They were recruiting the best and the brightest. Yet, the Sanders management could not distinguish between simple luck and smarts. Intel was smart, AMD was lucky. Been a dog ever since. They are the Yugo of chip companies. Joke. It simply is horrible management. Have they ever put in sustainable stock price appreciation? Ever? No.
I used to think that Intel allowed them to stick around just to keep the DOJ off their back. Today, with all the other comp, this "put" is no longer there. I predict AMD does not survive the next chip downturn and the world will not even miss them- at all.
still laughing? RIMM dropped 90% At some price even a dog turd has economic value (people do pay to have their own garbage removed).
Yesterday was an enormous gut checker for the Bulls. They should heed their instincts and not say, "but Apple is different".
Different than the once dominant Sony? In the 80's NEC dominated chips and all Asian PCs. Cisco still dominates networking hardware, but is no stock performer (not for a decade!) Samsung IS dominant and will continue to pressure Apple both on the phone side and the supply side. There are no moats around consumer technology.
I am not suggesting it will happen in four days, likely two or three years. This stuff is always incremental. $500 will now act like an enormous resistant ceiling. If AAPL can breach that easily than I'm a moron and the crowd is genius. History does not bode well for that thesis.
It was huge. Pushing a hundred. Their future earnings were rationalized down....in that comparison, the two are very different. What was interesting in the Cisco example is that they destroyed all other competition in the aftermath....and even though their sales more than doubled, the earnings got more difficult and the PE came down. Apple will have margin challenges. There is no where for them to cut (look at how unprofitable their suppliers currently are) if they get price pressure.
That is likely. It will likely be death by a thousand cuts over a long period of time. Like the entire semiconductor sector. It was well over a thousand when everyone was gushing about the future of transistor switching optically and PMCS had 80% gross margins. That was twelve long years ago, and a good rip van winkle rest. Dead money.
My point isn't to rip on Apple. My point is it has very limited upside, given historical norms....and likely, languishing price performance, with a slow slide.
If it does languish, no one will remember this discussion.
In 2002, ex-cash it was worth zero. That was a good buy. Who knows what the future holds? You are assuming it will always earn money. They would be in huge minority of tech companies that never had a losing quarter (burn some of that cash). No one, including me knows the future. In 2002, no one imagined the reality that Apple is today. There is a lot of assumption priced in it today. There are no tech companies, ever, that have got to $500B and not had a terrific reversal. None. Sure inflation is going to make that eventually get ratcheted up, maybe Apple is the first. Maybe. Not really a great bet, IMO.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
The fed funneled money to DC and New York. The two hottest real estate markets in the US. Amazing. I can't writ an equation with this, but I'll try:
C(o)rr/up)=t
EVERY commodity is up in the last decade. copper 500%. oil was deemed $5 forever in 99
Morons like this author will destroy the wealth of all that worship at the altar of the Fed. Inflation is mandate.
BTW, my double degree in electrical engineering and computer engineering in the early 80's created a salary DOUBLE my entire cost of education the very first year. and taxes were less, giving more disposable income....Today? You'd be lucky to 70% of the cost at the cheapest school.....
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
2) So create a new FRN. That is how Weimar Germany paid their pensioners 90 years ago....ditto for Argentina a decade ago. It MUST happen. There is no way out. It is impossible to grow out of.
3) I think that folks need to move the chess pieces in advance of this. How much of our GDP is based on BS FRN "fat". What will pharma sales be when medicare no longer functions the way it is today or when government can no longer support their regulation created monopoly? Or the education cartel? Military Industrial complex? Many industries are in this boat. Or what if bankers really need to bank w/ real risk? I suspect this is a 30% reduction in GDP or so. It is big. At least 15%. Like the author said, if someone wrote an article like this in 2006 the "forest would echo with laughter."
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
Sick? With what? Terminal cancer and 4 months to live?
Booked and can't move the calendar around? Give me a break. If it were THAT important I would think that the planners of this event could move JH around.
No, speculation on what, not why, is critical. Who announces they will miss something 6 months in advance? Very strange.
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
The Feds Are Apparently Now 'Printing' Precious Metals [View article]
It is now well over a quadrillion. 500 times larger. That is how you suppress it long term. You just keep making bigger and bigger bets. Of course, there is a limit. When the exchange is called out and demands are made, it all evaporates. Like the CDS' did in the mortgage market. They wrote stupid loans, slapped a fictitious CDS on it, and all risk was "sort of" removed....until it was called. "What do you mean I have to pay out on the mortgage failure? I thought I just got to collect the premium?" said AIG.
Paper price suppression is this seasons CDS fiasco.
We are all going to get a painful lesson in banking reality when this happens and Thomas Jefferson's and Andrew Jackson's warnings will resonate loudly. Banks are more dangerous than standing armies. Reality will bite very hard. I just hope that when this happens that the ignorant populous realizes that it was Jamie Dimon and his ilk (lots of ilk, there) that caused this....just so they could squeeze out tens of millions for themselves....they produced two things:
systemic destruction
personal gain.
clawback will be painful, me thinks....
AMD Makes A Few Smart Moves [View article]
AMD Makes A Few Smart Moves [View article]
Now if you are arguing that AMD has had technological successes AND has failed miserably financially, well then, you are just making my point even more.
I have been in the chip biz since the early 80's. AMD was my first employer. At that time Intel and AMD were neck and neck. CPU's were 16 bits, single digit Mhz, and hot (literally). The difference between the two companies was very little. AMD was hiring the best talent on the planet and treated them like rock stars. AMD was literally one or two quarters away from overtaking Intel in sales in 1983. Who knew what lie ahead?
That was the best it would ever get.
Granted, their aquisition of Supergen was genius, but alas, they squandered that too.....
The difference between Intel and AMD was management. Intel was disciplined, thoughtful, methodical, AMD was wild west cowboy and irresponsible.
Fiscally, that difference is literally worth 300 times performance delta.... In 1987, if one had simply taken $3k and bought Intel, while shorting AMD (nearly risk free) one would have a million dollars. Not many trades like that.
My point is that history of AMD is that technology doesn't matter. Somehow the idiotic management will screw it up....I've got 40 years of data to back that up.
I've often mused that Intel only keeps AMD around because it allows them to tell the DOJ that they have competition (how else could have they bought the CPU division from DEC in the 90's?). No one wants to be a monopoly....and if you are nearly a monopoly have competition which sucks....AMD......
And Intel yields 4% div at a 10PE....
AMD = A Money Destroyer..this is historical fact.
AMD Makes A Few Smart Moves [View article]
....anyway, my point is that analyzing AMD and coming up with "turn arounds arguments" is illogical. In four decades the company has been nothing but an abysmal failure. Consider all the success stories in the chip industry. When AMD started TOTAL WW chip sales were a little over One billion in sales. Now it is over what? 250B? And during that entire episode, all AMD could do was destroy its own market cap 95%. How do you fail like that? And what idiot would put good money back into that kind of failure? The author looks young and I appreciate giving companies second chances, but giving AMD any hope is an obvious act of fiscal negligent irresponsibility.
Why does AMD performs so poorly? Making money in semiconductors is difficult. It is one of the few industries that does not benefit from cronyism with the government. Hence, consumers enjoy very low prices and chip providers are subjected to the most challenging of capitalistic circumstances. (imagine if healthcare were like the chip biz.....)
The smart management gravitates towards the best companies and the rest? Yup, they go to the likes of AMD....and the stock goes from the upper left to the lower right.
Peace!
AMD Makes A Few Smart Moves [View article]
There have been some good dead cat bounce trades. In 1983 it was THE place to work. It was in striking distance of overtaking Intel in sales.....It was given a top spot as one of the best companies to work for. They were recruiting the best and the brightest. Yet, the Sanders management could not distinguish between simple luck and smarts. Intel was smart, AMD was lucky. Been a dog ever since. They are the Yugo of chip companies. Joke. It simply is horrible management. Have they ever put in sustainable stock price appreciation? Ever? No.
I used to think that Intel allowed them to stick around just to keep the DOJ off their back. Today, with all the other comp, this "put" is no longer there. I predict AMD does not survive the next chip downturn and the world will not even miss them- at all.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
RIMM dropped 90% At some price even a dog turd has economic value (people do pay to have their own garbage removed).
Yesterday was an enormous gut checker for the Bulls. They should heed their instincts and not say, "but Apple is different".
Different than the once dominant Sony? In the 80's NEC dominated chips and all Asian PCs. Cisco still dominates networking hardware, but is no stock performer (not for a decade!) Samsung IS dominant and will continue to pressure Apple both on the phone side and the supply side.
There are no moats around consumer technology.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
I am not suggesting it will happen in four days, likely two or three years. This stuff is always incremental. $500 will now act like an enormous resistant ceiling. If AAPL can breach that easily than I'm a moron and the crowd is genius. History does not bode well for that thesis.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
Dead money.
My point isn't to rip on Apple. My point is it has very limited upside, given historical norms....and likely, languishing price performance, with a slow slide.
If it does languish, no one will remember this discussion.
How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
Who knows what the future holds? You are assuming it will always earn money. They would be in huge minority of tech companies that never had a losing quarter (burn some of that cash). No one, including me knows the future.
In 2002, no one imagined the reality that Apple is today. There is a lot of assumption priced in it today.
There are no tech companies, ever, that have got to $500B and not had a terrific reversal. None. Sure inflation is going to make that eventually get ratcheted up, maybe Apple is the first. Maybe. Not really a great bet, IMO.