Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect. But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future. Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
Harlan Levy was an attorney at the Federal Communications Commission's Cable Television Bureau before becoming a reporter at WGTR-AM in the Boston area. He then worked as a TV news reporter at WXEX-TV Richmond, VA., WCIX-TV Miami, FL (winning an Emmy), and WVIT-TV, West Hartford, CT. He was co-owner Levy-Horsfield Video Productions from 1990-1993. He was a reporter and Managing Editor for The Commercial Record (banking & real estate weekly newspaper, S. Windsor, CT) from 1993-1997, and a business reporter and columnist for the Journal Inquirer from 1997-present. Levy has several awards from the Connecticut Society of Professional Journalists, including first place for business stories in 2008. Levy is also a freelance reporter, with business stories appearing in The New York Times, starting in 2001.
He has an A.B. from Princeton University and a J.D. from New York University School of Law, and he is a member of the Connecticut Bar and the Washington D.C. Bar.
A buy-side equity research analyst and a deputy portfolio manager covering global financials.
With nearly 10 years of investment experience on both buy- and sell-side, I provide research coverage on U.S., European, LatAm and CEEMEA banks/financials, including fundamental analysis, DCF/multiples valuation, commentaries on price-sensitive events and actionable trading ideas. If you are interested in the topic, click the "Follow" button beside my name on the top of the page.
Feel free to e-mail at email@example.com
Macro Investor | Mid/Long Term Horizon | US Equities, Commodities and Fixed Income | English, Dutch & German | Main Goal: Deliver the 1% of Global Data Needed To Make Money | Education | Ask Me Anything: firstname.lastname@example.org |
What to expect from my articles: I write mainly about my basic set of economic indicators that give a solid outlook about the economy. I then discuss trades that fit to the mid/long term outlook.
Hi, I'm Sarfaraz A. Khan. I have got an MBA from University of Aberdeen, located in the heart of UK's oil industry. My specialties lie in energy and materials stocks, but I occasionally cover services sector, emerging markets and ETFs. My work appears mainly on TheStreet and Seeking Alpha.
I am not based in the US, which is why I do not have any position in the US listed stocks that I write about. I do, however, own shares of funds that usually hold a long position in either Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, Schlumberger, Halliburton, ConocoPhillips, Honda Motor Company, GlaxoSmithKline, Unilever, or their subsidiaries that trade on non-US markets.
Data Center Knowledge - Contributor: writing about data centers REITs -- a new and growing asset class -- attempting to bridge the gap between technology & traditional REIT investors.
Researching and writing at the corner of Main St. & Wall St. where real estate often intersects with trends in: technology, ecommerce, office/industrial, healthcare, cloud computing, energy infrastructure & green initiatives.
Recently covered breaking news and actionable ideas REIT ideas for Benzinga "REIT Beat," now Contributor/Sr. REIT Expert. Select articles featured on Investopedia.com, Seeking Alpha, and published on Yahoo! Finance, Google, MSN, Finviz and many other financial portals. Recent Select Freelance contributor for Motley Fool, writing about REITs and real estate topics for the Financial Bureau.
I have over 25 years of experience as a: developer of institutional quality office and industrial facilities, general contractor, homebuilder, managing general partner for private limited partnerships, and have performed consulting and transactional real estate services for others, including entitlements for planned commercial/office/industrial developments.
Past job experience included: V.P. of Energy Services for a Florida based Mechanical Contracting company, which subsequently was acquired by EMCOR (NYSE: EME). Responsibilities included development and "financial engineering" of projects to reduce energy consumption and total cost of ownership solutions, partnered with the two major Florida electric utilities, and private companies, (including Enron Energy Services!).
Education: UCLA - BA Economics, including graduate coursework in Real Estate Finance.
Masters Degree from St. Thomas University - Miami, FL
HFI Research is a research firm that specializes in non-consensus investment analysis. We take the ideology of variant perception very seriously and believe that the only way to obtain a real edge in the market is to possess a variant perception investment thesis. We share our variant perception investment analysis with premium subscribers through 5 weekly reports: HFI Portfolio Weekly Update, Natural Gas Weekly Outlook, Oil Markets Weekly Outlook, Weekly Rant (investment topics), Big Picture Outlook. In addition to the weekly reports, we've recently launched a "Premium Daily" talking about the various observations in the hectic markets along with areas where we see opportunities.
If you enjoy our public articles, you will enjoy our premium service.
Our TipRank profile: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/hfi
I have nearly two decades experience in M&A, distressed debt, special situations and corporate lending both in the USA and in Western Europe, working for hedge funds, investment banks and commercial banks.
In 2008 I became interested in technical analysis primarily Elliotwave and trading foreign currencies.
I manage my own funds and that of a handful of other individuals with AUM totaling $2.5m.
I write articles on securities where I either hold a long or short position. Generally, if I do not have or want to have a position in a security then I will not write an article on such security. I am an investor first and a writer second. I try publish my articles simultaneously when opening or closing a position.
*For Elazar's Research on SA hit "Follow." and click "Real-time alerts on this author" for real time.
*Trading needs a gameplan and discipline. Elazar has served clients in the $100mm-$10B asset range. See the market through a new simple perspective.
Make decisions based on how the market functions with PRO TRADER. We've followed SPY, Oil, GLD, TLT, SLV, UNG, XIV, XLV, XLF, XLI, EFA, CYB, SOXX, IAU, TLT, and many other securities with strong historical model results. (See here for performance).
*Click for information about: PRO TRADER on Seeking Alpha.
Past performance can not predict future performance. Capital invested is capital at risk and especially when leverage is used large, some if not all of the principal can be lost. Please consult your financial advisor if such a service is right for you. The performance data shown includes back-tested past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data cited. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations unlike actual performance records. Real time performance is in the process of being compiled in PRO TRADER on Seeking Alpha.
I am a 40 year old investor with a long term perspective and a lot of patience. I mainly think about the future when investing in stocks. I do not care about what my selection of stocks will do next year, but what the result will be in 2040 or so. To paraphrase Warren Buffett: "You should only have stocks that you would feel comfortable having if the stock market closes up for 10 years." That means that I look for stocks that combine growth and value. It has been proven that the group of dividend initiators and fastest dividend growers outperforms the markets by far in the long run. So I mainly select stocks from this group, although I also select some non-dividend payers that I believe will grow out to great future value players. Hence: from Growth to Value. I appreciate your comments, because I believe I can learn a lot from your feedback and I believe in the wisdom of crowds.
Performance-focused, analytical, and profit-driven investment and asset management professional, with 20+ years of progressive experience in overseeing and executing fundamental research in equity, high-yield, and emerging markets, developing innovative investment strategies, and performing complex investment analysis.
Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and pharmaceutical inventor and entrepreneur, however focus now is global and involves almost all economic categories.
Hello, my name is Bernardo Teixeira and welcome to my page! I'm currently an undergraduate student of Northeatern University majoring in Finance and Computer Science. My investment focus is majorly in value plays, and sometimes in portfolio strategy and macro trends. Since I'm originally from Brazil and I have lived in China for a few years I have a special passion for emerging market equities and investments outside of the United States. I'm currently following three industries; insurance, semiconductors, and airlines. As always please let me know if you have any comments about my articles!
In order to value a company we usually apply three different types of valuation:
1. Comparable Valuation: If we identify a company has enough comparable companies (usually around 4) and their corporate structures are similar to each other than we would likely value this company through a comparable valuation. In our opinion a comps val is not conclusive enough to know whether a company is being mis-priced by the market, but it provides enough information as to understand which stock of the bunch is the cheapest. Below is one good example of a comparable company and one bad one.
A very good example of a stock which we would rely on a comps val is Delta (DAL). Delta is in an industry which there is little product differentiation and airlines have similar corporate structures. In contrast Microsoft (MSFT) is a company which I probably would not use a comps val, because there is no other company that sells the same exact product line as MSFT.
In our comps valuation we use two different sets of ratios. Equity multiples such as P/E, P/S, P/B and PEG, and Enterprise multiples such as EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/ Gross Cash Flow. We try to have all our ratios in a forward looking manner using average analyst expectations whenever possible. We also might eventually exclude ratios from the calculation that are not conclusive enough or that have a high dispersion among players of the industry.
2. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: After completing our comps val my next step is to run a DCF valuation of the company. Usually our preference for a DCF is to not effectively predict what is going to happen in the future, but instead identify how the market is pricing the stock and stipulate three scenarios assumptions. These scenarios are used to estimate what are different analyst expecting from this company and whether those expectations are realistic or not. The bull case scenario reflects the highest analyst expectation, the base case the average, and the bear case the lowest. We also adjust margins accordingly as to reflect the opinion of analyst. For stocks that have a wide coverage this usually a good measure of the market's view of the company. In general we are only long companies that have a very attractive risk/reward ratio, in which the bull case fairly outstrip the base and the bear case is not significantly negative.
Another assumption we like to make is concerning the discount rates. In our opinion relying on CAPM to calculate the expected rate of returns is a very poor choice. There are many problems with CAPM that are not worth mentioning here. Instead we believe that using a base 8% discount rate subjectively adjusted by it the riskiness of the stock is a better approximation of the discount rate.
3. Return on Invested Capital Valuation: Another type of valuation that we like to use is the ROIC method. I'm still developing a model that can be successfully deployed for Seeking Alpha articles. Once I have it complete I will update our assumptions on our methodology.
Companies that we follow: Ping An (PNGAY), PICC (PPCCY), Copa Holdings (CPA), Cameco (CCJ), Qualcomm (QCOM), Noble Energy (NBL), Delta (DAL), Arotech (ARTX).
Andrew Walker, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital LLC with a focus on small cap special situations investments. Mr. Walker also contributes to Sifting the World, a value investing forum.
Neil began his career as a Wall Street stock analyst, covering the financial sector for seven years. Noticing the lack of relevant analysis and context for Apple news, Neil founded Above Avalon. Along with publishing original financial and fundamental research on Apple on Above Avalon, Neil writes an exclusive daily email for Above Avalon members containing 2-3 stories a day (10-12 stories a week). Visit AboveAvalon.com/membership for more information.
My name is Dr Kanak Kanti De, MBBS, MD, PhD, retired medical practitioner, cancer survivor, healthcare sector investor, over 30 years' experience in the sector both in India and the United States. I write/have written on Motley Fool, SeekingAlpha, Benzinga, and on Forbes. I am consistently ranked high on TipRanks, although I don't like their ranking system. My portfolio has consistently beat the various indices for years. Email me to discuss my articles, or for just an adda (Bengali for informal chat) email@example.com.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests, an investment firm focused on publicly traded oil and gas companies. He is a value investor primarily focused on energy stocks, natural resources stocks, and companies trading a low multiples to earnings, cash flow, or book value. He previously served on the board of a small cap publicly traded oil and gas company. He has presented at numerous investment conferences, including Platts, LD Micro, Oil & Gas Money, Louisiana Energy Conference, and the Global Resources Investment Conference.
Contributing columnist for Real Money and TheStreet.com. BA in History from Bemidji State in Minnesota. I went on to learn Chinese at National Taiwan University in Taipei.
I worked in mortgage sales at Countrywide and Bank of America until 2010 when I decided to relocate to Taiwan.
Zach Scheidt is the editor of Lifetime Income Report and Income on Demand — investment advisories dedicated to finding Wall Street’s best yields. He brings to the table impeccable investment management experience and a solid record of identifying oversized payout opportunities.
Zach previously edited Income & Dividend Report, which was also dedicated to finding great stocks paying high dividends, and Accelerated Income, an advisory that focused on earning income using covered calls.
He started his career as a cost accountant for SunTrust bank, before he left for a more exciting career as an analyst for an Atlanta-based investment advisory. The company catered to wealthy clients with a minimum account balance of $1 million. It also ran two hedge funds with combined assets above $100 million. Zach was personally responsible for $20 million of the firm’s money, as well as $20 million in individual client accounts.
Zach graduated with honors from Lee University, a small private university in Cleveland, Tennessee. Upon entering the investment business, Zachary simultaneously worked full-time as an analyst and portfolio manager, and earned his MBA at Georgia State University.
When he is not scouring Wall Street for ultra-high dividends, Zach enjoys running and spending time with his wife and seven children.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages and has lived in the U.S. for many years. Also, he is a full-time investor and a freelance writer with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates in Seeking Alpha. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha is above 30.
After creating "Nathan's Bulletin" (a subscription-based investment guide for investors who can't afford a financial advisor), Value Digger launched a subscription-based Premium Service in Seeking Alpha entitled "A Fundamental Investor's Stock Club" which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown and/or underfollowed stocks. Regularly updated and detailed lists in his Premium Posts PROVE these high returns. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 50%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free Seeking Alpha articles, Value Digger is ranked in the TOP-50 with a success rate of over 70%, an average return per recommendation of over 20% and a 5-star rating according to TipRanks.com, which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks 9,000 financial experts worldwide.
After almost 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
MLPData is the leading site dedicated to providing investors with greater transparency into the full universe of Master Limited Partnerships and fund products. Our belief is that Master Limited Partnership's offer a very unique investment opportunity in light of the transformation of the North American Energy Landscape coupled with the unique tax considerations associated with distributions.
We are an independent and privately owned firm, launched by an entrepreneurial team with decades of experience in providing financial content and investment management services. Our objective is to expand the knowledge and investor interest in Master Limited Partnerships that are publicly traded, and the associated investment products such as Closed End Funds, Exchange Traded Notes and Funds and Mutual Funds.
Mr. Berger is the creator and developer of the YDP screening tool, a chart system and its analysis for screening and monitoring dividend income equity investments. The recipient of Seeking Alpha's Outstanding Performance Award, he also has been Seeking Alpha's #3 ranked Author for Income Investing Strategy & #4 for Utilities.
20 years of sitting in the board room gives me unique insights into Oil & Gas investments and corporate deal making in general. Additionally, he offers a Premium Research subscription service for boosting income while reducing market risk using covered option writing on a dividend income equity portfolio.
Residing in Brazil gives me a local's inside view on the pulse of its economy, politics, investment climate and breaking news. A view of my front yard is available here.
A former Chief Operating Officer, Director, Vice President and General Manger of Oil and Gas for Southern Pacific's Oil and Gas Operations, Business owner, geologist, and cribbage player, I've been an investor for over 48 years (started young at 13) and learned my lessons the way that makes them stick, by hard knocks and both big and little mistakes. Hopefully I can share some of those lessons with others.
I am an American expatriate that decided to retire at age 57 in 2009 and now live in Brazil. As an early retiree I invest for income and manage portfolio risk by screening for strong and reliable historic data along with favorable fundamental and technical current trends.
I spend 6 months/year living at home in Brazil and 6 months/year traveling the world. I have structured my financial positions so that I live virtually tax free with much of my income exempt from US tax since I live ex patriot and a lot of my US derived income over the annual ex-patriate exemptions is held in my tax free ROTH and tax deferred IRA/SIMPLE plans. This enables my tax savings to pay for my 6 months of annual traveling :) .
My investing is for income and appreciation with a balance of low to moderate short term risk and low long term risk. To accomplish this I use quality dividend payors with a long track record of steady or increasing dividends along with slowly appreciating equity prices. I target a 6 to 9 % yield and almost exclusively require a minimum history of 5 years of steady/increasing dividends and no decreases in dividend ever or at least past 10 years. I diversify through sector, country and currency unit the stocks are traded in, and security type (equity, royalty trust, REIT, mlp, etf, and ADRs).
I use covered call writing to enhance my portfolio yield with no added risk. In fact, it lowers the risk substantially. Once I identify a stock I want to own and an entry price for it, I write cash covered puts at or below that entry price (with a minimum of 1%/month time premium. Thus i obtain at least a 12% annualized yield before compounding just from the option premium.
Likewise, I use the sale of cash covered puts to generate income and and generally get an entry point at 5 to 10% below my acceptable entry level price if/when the put stock does get presented. Thus my strategy provides a 12% pre compound yield on cash and entry into stock purchases at a 5 to 10% discount from "retail".
Because I only select stocks that I am willing to hold long term for their reliable dividend yields of > 6%, I am not concerned much with market volatility or short/midterm risk. Indeed, market volatility is my friend since it increases the premiums paid on the options I sell. I also selectively sell covered calls on positions I hold long so as to add to my yield that way while not taking on any additional risk.
This strategy has kept me happily living off my portfolio income and traveling 1/2 the year while my portfolio has been slowly increasing in value even after my harvesting income for living expenses. Of course my income will incrementally increase when social security kicks in for me in a few more years and I may then slightly mofidy my goals and strategies.
Readers can get an e-mail once a day from Seeking Alpha that lists all newly published articles of ALL the authors they follow in a single e-mail. To get these updates:
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Paul Franke is a private investor and speculator with nearly 30 years of trading experience, including investment management. Mr. Franke was Editor and Publisher of the Maverick Investor® newsletter during the 1990s, widely quoted by CNBC®, Barron’s®, the Washington Post® and Investor’s Business Daily®. Paul was consistently ranked among top investment advisors nationally for stock market and commodity macro views by Timer Digest® during the 1990s. Mr. Franke was ranked #1 in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of 60,000+ portfolios. Mr. Franke was Director of Research at Quantemonics Investing® from 2010-13, running several model portfolios on the Covestor.com mirror platform (including the least volatile, lowest beta, fully-invested equity portfolio on the site). Seeking Alpha articles will focus on undervalued blue-chip companies or leaders in their industry. A contrarian stock picking style, along with weekly algorithm analysis of fundamental and technical data have been developed into a system for finding stocks, nicknamed the “Victory Formation.” Supply/demand imbalances signaled by specific stock price and volume movements are a critical part of this formula for success. Mr. Franke suggests investors use 10% or 20% stop-loss levels on individual choices and a diversified approach of owning 20-30 undervalued, unappreciated, turnaround favorites to achieve regular stock market outperformance.
I apologize to investors who follow my articles, but I don't currently plan to resume any involvement with SA, though that may eventually change, if the site ever implements/enforces deterrents to web stalkers. For now, I only publicly share opinions on stocks via Twitter, StockTwits, etc. The rest of what follows is my normal profile, so I won't have to rewrite it, should I ever continue posting on SA. Best of luck investing. Cheers. I run a small family office managing long-term portfolios and special projects beyond the capital markets. I'm fortunate to have worked for a NYSE-traded financial firm for the decade through 2010, but I am not an adviser, my articles only share our investing actions/opinions, and they are not investment advice. Proof is in the pudding, so here are our stock portfolio returns from the most recent five years: 2012 +32%, 2013 +52%, 2014 +11%, 2015 +14%, and 2016H1 +19.8% (those are just capital gains, but all holdings pay dividends). Returns are moderating as expected, since most positions were rebuilt/opened in 2010-2012 at extreme undervaluation levels, yet only a few new positions have been opened each of the last few years at moderate undervaluation levels. I also trade around core positions for short-term profits, but I do not include trade gains in portfolio return tracking, and my articles are strictly about long-term investing. My investing career started in the 1980s, and the transition to full-time was finalized in 2009. I only list returns from 2012 because that's when I became most active on SA, and the stock calls that led to those results can be verified here. For 2008-2011, my focus was shorter-term trades, which made total annual returns harder to tally, so without wasting time backtracking, I can only say returns were worthwhile. For most years prior, I was a blue-chip-only, buy-and-hold guy, which also worked well, so I still own most of those stocks in accounts separate from our actively-managed portfolios.
Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale is the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Chuck is also co-founder of an investment management firm. He has been working in the securities industry since 1970: he has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, Vice President and Regional Marketing Director for a major AMEX listed company, and an Associate Vice President and Investment Consulting Services Coordinator for a major NYSE member firm. Prior to forming his own investment firm, he was a partner in a 30-year-old established registered investment advisory in Tampa, Florida. Chuck holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Tampa. Chuck is a sought-after public speaker who is very passionate about spreading the critical message of prudence in money management. Chuck is a Veteran of the Vietnam War and was awarded both the Bronze Star and the Vietnam Honor Medal.