Encouraged by the efforts of gold miners to be more transparent about costs, Andrew Bary of Barron’s over the weekend makes the case for owning beaten gold-mining stocks. The more accurate - i.e., higher - cost estimates aren’t just about trying to be more shareholder-friendly, they're about trying to avoid shakedowns by revenue-hungry emerging market governments. [View news story]
Well, I hope so, but banking stocks were more nailed to the perch by governments and central banks. It seems doubtful they'll ride to the rescue of gold miners!
Thanks Avi. However, your numbers seem to get lower by the week. Last week it was 142-143, and (when I queried this) you mentioned 137.5 as a potential bottom. This week it's 124-127. How low can we go before your charts say 'It's broken'?
"..the longer term pattern in silver may break down.." Oh dear, I think this is the first time you've voiced doubts about an eventual moonshot. And I've just purchased a shiny new spacesuit! Please confirm that you think this is a very low probability outcome.
Good article Avi, and thanks for being so transparent.
My WAG on GLD is that you're being slightly optimistic. The trend on the gold:SPX ratio seems to target 1.23, a 10%+ change from today. If silver is going down from $26 to $23 (another 10%+ change, as per your sister article) then 141 on GLD seems high by comparison.
Oh well, do you see any chance of a dead cat bounce before hitting bottom to allow us desperate types to bail and get in lower? :-)
Gold And Silver Break Several Technical Barriers, What's Next? [View article]
This article appears (with a coupla minor mods) every few days. Why SA? Do you have a recycling policy? The basic points appear here from mid-2011: http://seekingalpha.co...
Goldman's short call on gold looks prescient, as comex gold sinks $63.50 to settle at $1,501.40/oz. for its lowest close since July 2011. Traders and analysts see no obvious trigger for the selloff, which seems to reflect the malaise that has gripped the market. Silver slips $1.37 to $26.33/oz. Miners are huge losers: HMY -7.5%, ABX -7.3%, AEM -6.9%, AUY -6.2%, SLW -5.6%, NEM -5.2%, EGO -4.9%, GFI -4.8%, GG -4.5%. [View news story]
I'm with GS. Time to buy into stocks at an all-time high, and sell PMs after 2 years consolidation and a major daily crash. Makes perfect sense.
Gold miners (GDX -4.5%) are getting destroyed as gold prices cross into bear territory. Capitulation, if it’s here, would mean a true bottom in price, and Tocqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway says that's what we’re approaching; he sees strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in mining shares - "a contrarian's dream scenario." [View news story]
Yesterday's brutal selloff in gold miners (GDX +0.6%) does not create a buying opportunity, J. P. Morgan says, noting mining costs will keep rising even as gold prices likely will stay within a range. Miners, which begin reporting earnings at the end of this month, thus will continue to show declining profit margins. Also, Q2 tends to be weak for metals; combined with dollar strength, upside for the stocks is limited. [View news story]
The Commodity Boom Is Over [View article]
Tying the price of gold to Chinese capex is a stretch.
Unless they're building factories with it. :-)
Encouraged by the efforts of gold miners to be more transparent about costs, Andrew Bary of Barron’s over the weekend makes the case for owning beaten gold-mining stocks. The more accurate - i.e., higher - cost estimates aren’t just about trying to be more shareholder-friendly, they're about trying to avoid shakedowns by revenue-hungry emerging market governments. [View news story]
Is Silver Going To Crash Further? [View article]
Gold - The Ultimate Blame Game [View article]
Is Silver Going To Crash Further? [View article]
"..the longer term pattern in silver may break down.." Oh dear, I think this is the first time you've voiced doubts about an eventual moonshot. And I've just purchased a shiny new spacesuit! Please confirm that you think this is a very low probability outcome.
Are You A Scared Silver Investor? [View article]
Are You A Scared Silver Investor? [View article]
Just hope when the US opens they don't have different ideas....
Time To Sell Your Gold? [View article]
Time To Sell Your Gold? [View article]
My WAG on GLD is that you're being slightly optimistic. The trend on the gold:SPX ratio seems to target 1.23, a 10%+ change from today. If silver is going down from $26 to $23 (another 10%+ change, as per your sister article) then 141 on GLD seems high by comparison.
Oh well, do you see any chance of a dead cat bounce before hitting bottom to allow us desperate types to bail and get in lower? :-)
Gold And Silver Break Several Technical Barriers, What's Next? [View article]
The basic points appear here from mid-2011:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Goldman's short call on gold looks prescient, as comex gold sinks $63.50 to settle at $1,501.40/oz. for its lowest close since July 2011. Traders and analysts see no obvious trigger for the selloff, which seems to reflect the malaise that has gripped the market. Silver slips $1.37 to $26.33/oz. Miners are huge losers: HMY -7.5%, ABX -7.3%, AEM -6.9%, AUY -6.2%, SLW -5.6%, NEM -5.2%, EGO -4.9%, GFI -4.8%, GG -4.5%. [View news story]
Gold miners (GDX -4.5%) are getting destroyed as gold prices cross into bear territory. Capitulation, if it’s here, would mean a true bottom in price, and Tocqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway says that's what we’re approaching; he sees strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in mining shares - "a contrarian's dream scenario." [View news story]
Yesterday's brutal selloff in gold miners (GDX +0.6%) does not create a buying opportunity, J. P. Morgan says, noting mining costs will keep rising even as gold prices likely will stay within a range. Miners, which begin reporting earnings at the end of this month, thus will continue to show declining profit margins. Also, Q2 tends to be weak for metals; combined with dollar strength, upside for the stocks is limited. [View news story]
What To Do With Gold And Silver? [View article]
I take it this is a repost of an old article, with a few (but not enough) edits......
Mila Kunis, Euphoria And The Stock Market [View article]