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scoops12

scoops12
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  • Yesterday's brutal selloff in gold miners (GDX +0.6%) does not create a buying opportunity, J. P. Morgan says, noting mining costs will keep rising even as gold prices likely will stay within a range. Miners, which begin reporting earnings at the end of this month, thus will continue to show declining profit margins. Also, Q2 tends to be weak for metals; combined with dollar strength, upside for the stocks is limited. [View news story]
    Yeah, but is this a bluff or a double-bluff?
    Apr 4, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do With Gold And Silver? [View article]
    "For the year, silver is up 80 percent and gold is up 23 percent."

    I take it this is a repost of an old article, with a few (but not enough) edits......
    Apr 3, 2013. 03:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mila Kunis, Euphoria And The Stock Market [View article]
    Of all the terms which have been used to describe Mila Kunis, "contrarian indicator" is a new one!
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Signs For Silver [View article]
    I've googled and googled, but cannot find a reference to the GS report of which you speak. Considering GS are bearish PMs in general, it's difficult to know what they might have said to cause such a positive reaction. Especially since their past calls have been so wrong....
    Mar 12, 2013. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Best Time To Invest In Commodities Since March 2009 [View article]
    Exactly right. Some commodities will do well, but Grantham's perspective is based on running out of everything, which is moronically Malthusian. How many times in history do we have to repeat this myopia - peak coal in the 1900s; peak oil now; peak unobtainium next...
    Mar 11, 2013. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Morgan: Is $300 Silver Possible? [View article]
    If silver goes to $300, what does that imply for the prices of gold, platinum and palladium? This all sounds wholly unrealistic.

    On the other hand, it would certainly make asteroid mining profitable!
    Mar 10, 2013. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Seeking Confirmation Of A Bottom [View article]
    Good stuff Avi. The dollar rally is because of what it's measured against - the yen (agh!), the euro (ugh!) and sterling (well, I'm a Brit, but the UK isn't exactly zooming along right now). But you're right - it wasn't exactly widely predicted.

    Like you, I noticed the 29.27 high, but also noticed the strong buying after the post-jobs dip on Friday. The 'range' seems to be getting ever smaller, to maybe $1. Surely silver must make a major move soon, up or down?
    Mar 10, 2013. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade A Strong Employment Report [View article]
    "Precious metals have been rallying...".

    On which planet?
    Mar 9, 2013. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Today's Labor Report Is Good For Precious Metals [View article]
    Jobs report, Goldman Sachs, inflation, deflation, manipulation......

    PMs ran up 2001 - 2011 through low unemployment, high unemployment, GS saying buy, GS saying sell, inflation scares, deflation scares, and - oh - constant shorting fun from the bullion banks.

    Real correlation is the money base. After 2 years flatlining, up it goes again. PMs will follow.
    Mar 8, 2013. 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Gold And Silver Further On This Jobs Report [View article]
    PS: Don't know what Goldman said. Don't care.
    Mar 8, 2013. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Gold And Silver Further On This Jobs Report [View article]
    Stocks and PMs negatively correlated? This must be why PMs tanked in 2003 - 2007. (Sorry, satire).
    Look at the monetary base zooming this year after a couple of years hiatus. The dam will break eventually. Soon.
    Mar 8, 2013. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver [View article]
    Agreed. The upside now exceeds the downside by a wide margin.
    Mar 6, 2013. 05:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: The 'Manipulator-In-Chief' Strikes Again [View article]
    Umpa - you've given this reader a headache!
    Feb 24, 2013. 07:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices To Drop 25% As Winter Winds Down [View article]
    I think we're about bottom now.

    $2.50 would assume a replay of last year with it's very mild Spring, and headlines about April flowers blooming in late February. That caused Natty to collapse from c. $2.75 on 22/2/12 (ie: now) to sub-$2 in mid-April. The 75c drop you're predicting to $2.50 matches that fall.

    Price was around $4 last Autumn when predictions of a colder-than-average Winter suggested the end-of-season inventory might end up at a 'typical' level of 1.5Tcf. Instead, a normal winter means a decline to 2Tcf. Maybe another normal Winter next year will return it to 1.5Tcf and $4+.

    I think we are near bottom because:
    (1) Traders will not capitulate on price as they did in the exceptional circumstances of last Spring.
    (2) If March has normal weather, it will be much better than last year - no need for a 75c drop in price, or much drop at all.
    (3) The average expected price for 2013 by traders is currently $3.66. Taking the price down too far is an open invitation to buyers.
    (4) Go back to the more normal Spring in 2011. The low point came in week 7-8 (ie: about now).

    $3.25 seems a fair price for a 2Tcf inventory low.
    Feb 21, 2013. 09:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Storage Projections Through March 8: Discussion And Price Analysis [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis PE, and for the excellent website.

    I've been trying to figure out why after a string of above-expectations withdrawals there have been two lower-than-expected ones. Could be more nukes online; could be the rise in natty prices in the period in question; could be analysts over-adjusting for the coal-to-gas switch after the earlier numbers; could even be folks getting more used to cold weather and holding back on the heating.

    Probably best to err on the side of caution with the projections now?
    Feb 12, 2013. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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