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  • The U.S. May Lead LNG Exports: Who Will Be The Winners? [View article]
    I can never find links when I want them, but one estimate is that it will take China a decade to put everything in place for large-scale fracking.

    Meanwhile, here in Europe, the EU and the ecoloons are doing their best to stop any suggestion of fracking (so far the EU energy / environment policy has only led to more coal and lignite burning - usual Law of Unintended Consequences stuff).

    So there is a good window of opportunity here for the US, based in part on "the other guy's politicians are even more stupid than ours".
    Jan 6, 2013. 11:27 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If it's a fat finger, it's not immediately being lifted. So far, gold hasn't bounced a dime from a quick $20 sell-off an hour ago. Chatter says the move was due to a contract rollover that accidentally became an outright sell. Silver has moved in concert, SLV -2.1% premarket. Oil and copper, both lower by more than 1%, complete the picture for key commodities. [View news story]
    It's JP Morgan holding up one very fat finger to every PM investor in the world.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:00 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do With Gold And Silver? [View article]
    "For the year, silver is up 80 percent and gold is up 23 percent."

    I take it this is a repost of an old article, with a few (but not enough) edits......
    Apr 3, 2013. 03:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver [View article]
    Agreed. The upside now exceeds the downside by a wide margin.
    Mar 6, 2013. 05:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did we miss a major central bank tightening overnight? The precious metals sector is lit up bright red following the Fed's addition to QE and what looks like the promise of ZIRP for at least 2-3 more years. GLD -1.1%, SLV -2.2% premarket. Copper and oil join in, the red metal -1.4%, and WTI crude -0.6%[View news story]
    Price is not determined by economic logic. It's determined by JP Morgan. Hope this helps.
    Dec 13, 2012. 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Natural Gas [View article]
    Does nobody read weather forecasts beyond the daily paper? It's going to be freezing late Jan onwards as Polar Vortex collapses. Demand will skyrocket, and supply is hardly that elastic.

    $4 in a month; $5 by end-of-season, and a sub-2 Tcf inventory by end-March!
    Jan 12, 2013. 03:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Trading Range Ready To Change [View article]
    To your reasons I'd add:
    6) Frankenbank JP Morgan permanently disabled by Frankenstorm Sandy. :-)
    Oct 31, 2012. 02:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Silver Going To Crash Further? [View article]
    Avi - thanks as always for your thoughts.

    "..the longer term pattern in silver may break down.." Oh dear, I think this is the first time you've voiced doubts about an eventual moonshot. And I've just purchased a shiny new spacesuit! Please confirm that you think this is a very low probability outcome.
    Apr 21, 2013. 07:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Do You Think It Is Breaking Out? [View article]
    Avi, thanks for the exposition on phi. When I first came across Fibonacci numbers (40 yrs ago!) my reaction was "Is that all?? Pfui!". When a very good teacher explained all of the significance, Fibonacci became a hero of mine (and I also stopped using old expressions such as 'Pfui').

    You say all reflects sentiment. Can the sentiment indicators for PMs get any worse without mass suicides? Look at the Hulbert index for gold, and similar for silver. Most people are already on the outside windowledge, ready to jump. That suggests very limited downside from here, imo.
    Jan 20, 2013. 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter [View article]
    Agree with the article in general. Only please don't mention 'global warming' again. You got away with it once, and are forgiven, but no more. Lol.
    Jan 18, 2013. 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Rally? [View article]
    Could someone flame my arithmetic just in case my bullish view is really dumb?

    Current inventory: 3316
    Reduction in inventory 2nd week Jan until end-of-draw
    averaged from 2009 and 2011: -1250
    end-of-drawdown inventory: c. 2000

    Price of natty when inventory was last at ~2000 (May '11): c. $4.50

    Added to which, the weather pattern is turning cold, and may sustain for weeks. I don't understand the statement in the article that 'cold weather doesn't push demand'. If not, at this time of year, what does?
    Jan 14, 2013. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Natural Gas [View article]
    Depends what you mean by credible, but Andrew here has been right so far:

    Lest you think I'm relying on one blog, the patterns from the major models are coming round to the idea of continual renewing streams of cold air coming into the Eastern USA. Once the pattern is established, it can continue for weeks. See also

    My guess is a lot of weeks of record withdrawals (250 Bcf +) in Feb / March. The last few weeks seem to show that the switch to gas has been underestimated. If it gets *really* cold, expect more upside surprises.

    Hedge funds are reducing their shorts. I dunno what time frame the algos which control the market have - they probably don't pay much attention to forecasts more than a week out. So maybe human foresight can win against the robots!

    Disclosure: I'm long, and planning to get longer on Monday....
    Jan 12, 2013. 04:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Forecast Is $90 In 2013? [View article]
    I find the charts a bit of a Rube Goldberg (Rube Goldbug?) construct.

    Anyway, for something to triple in a year, something has to change in the fundamentals, and the only thing I can think of which could move silver that fast is for JPM to stop treating the silver market as their own personal milchcow.

    What are the chances of that?
    Jan 6, 2013. 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Continues Its Slide [View article]
    Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day probability charts are showing normal temperatures in the North East for the first time in weeks (they've hitherto been well above normal).

    But then I don't know what time horizon traders have. Imho, the slide has gone too far.
    Dec 12, 2012. 10:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction In Silver Is A Longer-Term Opportunity [View article]
    Absolutely right! GATA has been trying to reform the market, or at least get the regulators to admit the manipulation, but everyone has their snouts in the trough, I guess.
    If it doesn't reform, sooner or later it will be destroyed as things get out of it's control. Could take a while yet, though.
    Oct 19, 2012. 07:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment