Wyatt Nevada

The Bull Argument for Oil

The fundamentals clearly indicate a rise in oil prices over the long term. Every U.S. citizen uses 2.87 gallons of oil per day. (21 million bbls day x 42 gals divided 307 million people) while China uses .25 gallons (1-quart) of oil per person per day. ( 7.8 million bbls day x 42 gals divided by 1.33 billion people) India uses only 1/10th of a gallon of oil per day / per person using only 2.72 million barrels of oil per day with a population of more than 1.2 billion.

Last year there were more new cars sold in China then there were in the U.S. India has a backlog of more than 10,000,000 people waiting for the new "Nano" car that was just released.

Both China and India have a rapidly expanding middle class that will use more energy each and every year for the foreseeable future.

Short term fundamentals may keep oil lower in the near term but long term, watch out, $147 barrel may come sooner than you think.

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

With the latest bailouts at about $1.5 trillion and the $250 billion to save all the losers who bought houses they couldn't afford and $410 Billion budget just passed by the house the number of the deficit is closer to $12 Trillion (but who's counting a few billion here or there - not Chuckie Schummer).

The "unfunded" portion of the deficit, which includes social security that they've been robbing for years, is approximately $45 Trillion. If I add those correctly that equals $57 Trillion - but who's counting an extra Trillion here or there?


On Feb 24 04:16 PM naidle wrote:

> It may be an estimate but I'd have to favor the words of David Walker,
> the former U.S. Comptroller-General with matters such as this. To
> ignore future debt of major Gov programs is flat out misleading.
>
>
> I think if you're going to rudely push wildcat's statement aside
> it is you who should do some fact checking on the matter. You make
> it sound as if because we don't know the number it might as well
> be 0 and thus we're left with just $11 trillion in debt.
>
> Really?
>
>
>

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

You sound like a twenty something who has no idea of what you talk about! You have no idea how hard we worked to get to where we are today - only to see a bunch of 40 somethings think that the redistribution of my wealth to those not willing to work for it should somehow be enriched by the work of others.

Unlike the bunch of whiners like you, I'll admit that we are responsible for electing the wrong people to run this country over and over and over again.

This is where you should direct your rant - ALL of us (you as well) are guilty of electing people to make decisions for us who should never have been elected in the first place!



On Feb 24 12:22 AM mallarde wrote:

> I would blame the Baby Boomer generation before people in the 40s
> and 30s. I consider the 60s generation to be the most self-absorbed,
> reckless and selfish generation in the last 100 years. I believe
> they took a magnificent jewel of a country, put it down, abused it,
> thrashed it, got rich off it and now are in the process of giving
> it away.
>
> Do Americans have any idea how fast their population is growing?
> Or how many impoverished people are flowing into the country creating
> the growth? It's astounding. The 60s generation is like the last
> generation of the Roman Empire who lived off the achievements of
> their forebears and gave away the empire to hoards of Germans and
> others in a non-violent invasion.

Cacophony in the Oil Market

I posted this on another blog but I think it probably belongs here:

1) U.S. oil consumption is approximately 21 million barrels of oil per/day. The population of the U.S is 303 million meaning that each person in the U.S. uses approximately 3 gallons of oil per/day.

2) China's oil consumption is approximately 8.05 million barrels of oil per/day. With a population of 1.3 billion that averages only .25 gallons of oil consumption per/person per/day.

Can you imagine what would happen to world oil demand/supply situation if they ever reach the same level as the United States? That would be a 12 fold increase to almost 97 million barrels - unlikely but even an increase to 1 gallon per/person per/day in China would be more than the U.S. consumption at 21 million.

I haven't done the numbers for India but it should be interesting!

No Gold Bubble

In the not too distant future you will probably see the U.S Dollar fall to all time lows due to the amount money that the government is printing. Since March of 2006, the U.S. government stopped releasing the M3 numbers to the public so they would not have to disclose the amount of money that has been printed and released into the system.

As it stands right now, we have no idea how large that number is but it is most likely in the trillions. The new administration is going to print trillions more "fiat" dollars that will add to an already overburdened system to try and "correct" our financial system - which is indeed is locked up.

If - as the Obama administration declares - that they will make the government's actions more transparent to the American people and this information is released - the gold and precious metals markets are going to go nuts!

Talk about a rally!

Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back

I would like to point out a couple sidebars to your position:

1) U.S. oil consumption is approximately 21 million barrels of oil per/day. The population of the U.S is 303 million meaning that each person in the U.S. uses approximately 3 gallons of oil per/day.

China's oil consumption is approximately 8.05 million barrels of oil per/day. With a population of 1.3 billion that averages only .25 gallons of oil consumption per/person per/day.

Can you imagine what would happen to world oil demand/supply situation if they ever reach the same level as the United States? That would be a 12 fold increase to almost 97 million barrels - unlikely but even and increase to 1 gallon per/person per/day would be more than the U.S. consumption at 21 million.

2) Take a look at the gold/oil ratio which is currently at a 10 year high of 25:1 - historically this ratio has maintained a level of 10:1 to 14:1.

If you think gold is going to come down to bring this ratio into line - think again. With the amount of money that's been printed by the Treasury over the last 7 years and with no end in sight for the foreseeable future, the inflationary spiral we are about to see will unprecedented!

Oil and gold my friend are both going to new highs!


On Feb 20 08:29 AM longoil wrote:

> Comparing oil services stocks and internet stocks is like comparing
> apples and oranges. The world can live without eBay or Amazon, but
> cannot live without oil and gas.
>
> Conventional oil production has peaked. This is why major oil companies
> are investing heavily in non-conventional projects like the oil sands,
> deep sea drilling and tight gas extraction. The current economic
> malaise has hidden the fact that peak oil is happening. The services
> companies RIG, DO, and NOV as well as producers CHK and COP are excellent
> long term plays when the economy (and oil demand) recovers.
>
> Alternative energy sources (solar, wind, hydro) currently makes up
> less than 5% of the world's energy mix. It will take at least 50
> years to get off of oil and gas. Oil and gas is king till the middle
> of this century.