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Hayweed

Hayweed
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  • Apple: What to Make of the iPhone Battery Hype? [View article]
    Todd:

    Since January AAPL is up about 25 billion. You could argue purely on the iPhone but we know that the last 2 quarters had super earnings. RIMM is worth $33 billion and is a one trick pony. I figure the street values AAPL current earnings about 30 times or $105.00 a share and $20 for the iPhone or about 16 billiion for the iPhone. Considering RIMM's market cap of 33 billion aapl who wants 1% of the market and Rimm who has 1% of the market, AAPL has about 17 billion of market cap to go up or about another $20 per share.
    Jun 19 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Players Take On Apple iPhone With Flat-Rate Mobile Music Service [View article]
    If buying costs 1.50 and users buy 6 songs a year that is 9.00 in revenue for the sales model

    If renting costs 2.99/week * 52 weeks =155.48 per year to rent music.

    Consumers may be dumb but does anyone think the idea of rent your music for 15 times what you spend buying it will work.

    Plus can you load all your cd's onto the rental music phones?
    Jun 14 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canaccord Hikes Research In Motion Price Target To $225 [View article]
    You have to be kidding.

    $225 on Feb 2007 earnings of $3.33 = PE of 67
    $225 on Feb 2008 earnings of $4.81 = PE of 47
    $225 on Feb 2009 earnings of $6.17 = PE of 36
    Jun 13 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone: Buy the Hype, Sell the Launch? [View article]
    Problem with the trailling stop was that when the stock spiked to $95 in January to then fall to $80 you would have been stopped out and missed the last 30 points. You can use them but you can get burned when the stock drops temporarily. You can also get whacked like the day the iphone delay rumor came out and the stock tanked $4 intraday. I prefer trading on the news and buying and sellling based on the stock compared with overall market trends. Trailling stop Might work though for people not watching daily.
    Jun 9 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone: Buy the Hype, Sell the Launch? [View article]
    Malkiel:

    Not a bad suggestion but as I constantly move in and out of AAPL shares depending upon the market and the news flow. I began selling above $100 when the stock floundered after earnings. As it continued to rise almost daily, I just kept selling until I ran out of stock last week in the 120's. I have since been buying and selling it daily but not holding it. I am Holding the Rimm short as I think they will feel more pain from the iPhone than wall street thinks and at this point the iPhone is about baked into AAPL's price at this point. Plus, search Rimm on stock sites and there is nothing negative. Just positive talk about the iPhone making smart phones more mainstream. The iPhone will make Rimm's products look like pagers do now. Email is not enough to create a platform but email, phone, internet, camera, ipod is a game changer.
    Jun 8 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone: Buy the Hype, Sell the Launch? [View article]
    I have sold most of my AAPL as the move up here seems too much. Considering the market as a whole has had a big advance, I think shorting RIMM is the safer play, as Rimm has a lot to lose in the iPhone is a big success and they have gained so much that if the iPhone was a flop, the stock will not rise much.
    Jun 8 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Priced for Perfection [View article]
    I don't think Todd has a problem with AAPL or GOOG. Just read his posts and go the opposite. On his AAPL call on May 24th, where he said the AAPL commenters were fanatics, the stock has run about 12 points (a 10% return in less than 2 weeks). Now he seems to be anti GOOG which is also finally having a run to a new 52 week high/all time high.

    He is just a pessimist in a rising stock market.

    My question for Todd is what do you think about RImm which I think gets hurt the most by the new iPhone?
    Jun 5 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone: Apple Making All the Wrong Moves [View article]
    Todd misses the point as AAPL is entering on the high end of the phone market where the profits are. The phone does way more than any other phone especially RIMM's phones. As Jobs stated at the iPhone launch the other phones are given away by the carriers since they are worth about $0. The repsonse Verizon now wants to launch the Prada phone which is a $500 to $800 phone so they obviously see some profit here. Biggest company with a problem is RIMM with 9 million subs. AAPL wants 10 milliion phones in the first year thus becoming the size of RIMM in one year. RIMM is worth almost 30 billliion in market cap (way overvalued) so should aapl with tons of resources compared to RIMM get a $30 billion increase in market cap. Why not. AAPL's entry forces MSFT to focus on phones (software) so where does that leave RIMM. With a niche product. RIMM wants the high end consumer but their phones will look so last centry after the iPhone comes out. That means lots of pain for RIMM. Thus the best position is long AAPL and short RIMM. I admit that I have sold most of my AAPL as this run has been great while adding to a RIMM short since their run is ridiculous.
    May 25 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell Tries Its Hand At Mass Distribution [View article]
    Dell has waived the white flag. They need retail but retail mights tight inventory control or lots of unsold product on shelves. Dell's biggest problem remains repairs. Who wants to ship their computer back to a manufacturer or pay a ton for a service plan. AAPL has stores that do repairs as well as authorized mac repair shops so rarely do you ever ship the computer back. Wal-mart is not going to do repairs so dell still has a giant hole in their strategy.
    May 25 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Video Downloads Will Overtake iTunes Soon -- Study [View article]
    Question is downloads or video streams. Itunes allows you to download, move to apple tv and then watch on your living room widescreeen tv. Most video streams are small, if blown up are grainy and you have to watch at the computer, Hope you have the apple 30 inch monitor. I do but things like mlb tv blown up are a little distorted. But if you want to watch at the computer and watch the ads good for you. If you want to watch them on your tv or at the gym on your ipod, itunes is the way to go.
    May 15 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC Capital Sees RIM's Product Cycle Momentum Continuing [View article]
    Yet RIMM goes higher and higher. My big question is how does wall st. trust management on the options back datings issue. Didn't they say it was a $25 million dollar problem then it ballooned to over $200 million. And yet everyone thinks Steve Jobs so go to jail. Rimm has gone up too far and too fast. Shorting this one into the iPhone launch.
    May 9 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone Rocks the Cell Phone Industry [View article]
    The real game changer for the mobile phone makers is the fact that the iPhone is a complete OS. Thus synching it with your mac and maybe the pc should be simple. It will be great for short internet sessions in all kinds of places when you just would not use a laptop. My wife and i were going to dinner the other night and the italian restaurant was packed (1 hour + wait). Do we wait here or try another restaurant. While you could use phone information, how about using google maps to locate all the restaurants nearby, call one and order a table then head over. The blackberry is about email not browsing. The iPhone is integrating the web, email, video voicemail (how cool will that be) calendars, a music player and the phone into one device. Right now only laptops can do all of this except the phone part. It is the mini laptop in your pocket. The damage is not to every cell phone maker as not everyone needs a $500-$600 phone but no one needs a Porsche, Mercedes or a BMW, but they seem to be everywhere among the well to do.
    May 4 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Does the Market Hate Google? [View article]
    I am stunned as well. AAPL was 95 in January and has blown out estimates two qaurters in a row and is now $100.00 Google was $510 in January and has now had two great quaters and we are down almost 10% while the market is booming. Guess the answer is why own tech when eating buffalo wings is the key to making money in this market. BWLD up 14% on 58% growth selling chicken wings in a slowing economy. This stock has doubled in the last 6 months. Go figure
    May 2 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circuit City Revises Downward: Where Does That Leave Best Buy? [View article]
    Problem with CC and BBY is that they are fancy showrooms to show products on behalf of the product makers. Unfortunately they make money only when they sell the product. I wanted a 40" sony tv 1080p and CC and BBY were matching prices at $2499 and AMZN with free shipping to my living room was $1949. I would have liked to buy it at CC since they are a local company. When I asked the salesman about the price he said he could not match AMZN, but the manager might. No attempt to ever get the manager was done by the associate so I went home and bought the tv from amazon after viewing the product at CC. I see BBY and CC as doomed unless they get competitive on prices or figure out how to get paid for advertising the product for Sony.
    May 2 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Equity Notes iPod Growth Ends; Larger Questions With Apple [View article]
    I don't know why everyone is convinced that everyone has an ipod. Even if they did, think of all the uses. I have the original 5gb firewire (used as a small backup drive). 60 gb video for playing tv shows while on the treadmill and for carrying files between home and work. An ipod nano for keeping track of treadmill workouts through nike ipod kit. But why stop there, anyone have a 6 disc changer in a car. That is dead technology. Buy a car stereo with an ipod link, buy a 4gb nano and you have a cool car stereo for about $450. You could use your normal ipod but why not just leave it in the car. My dad uses a 60 gb ipod just to store data. The uses are limitless so everyone needs to quit thinking the growth is over.
    Apr 30 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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354 Comments
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