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Hayweed

Hayweed
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  • Amazon Q4 2011 Results Preview; Cheat Sheet [View article]
    jaje21 - you got an easy and short assignment. You will be able to do nothing since there will not be any profit this quarter on Amazon. Looking for a loss of $200 million.
    Jan 29, 2012. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Hate Stems From Apple Love [View article]
    So the theory behind this article is that Amazon is about $40 off the high due to negative sentiment from Apple bulls and nothing to do with their forecast that they might lose money in the Christmas quarter.
    Jan 17, 2012. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Samsung Is The Next Apple [View article]
    The new generation of devices requires software and an OS. Samsung does not have this. They are using Android or whatever which makes their products dependent upon others. What about the poor consumer that buys the Samsung phone only to find out you can never upgrade the OS or that the phone is discontinued 3 months after you bought it.

    I personally do not think that Apple wants to make a TV, not enough margin. The Apple TV or whatever is next needs to be an attachment and not an entire tv. A really good box that plays games, does the internet, airplay, music, etc, with a decent controller (think millions of iPods, iPhones and iPads that can control it. Add in siri and any tv can be converted into a dumb monitor for Apple's vision of a TV.
    Jan 11, 2012. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now, Everyone Loves Netflix [View article]
    Just a dead cat bounce and nothing more
    Jan 9, 2012. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Vs. Apple: Competition Continues Among Investors [View article]
    The problem with Apple and Amazon valuations is that wall street thinks Amazon will grow faster each year regardless of profits. Wall Street does not think Apple can grow anywhere near the pace that they have grown thus Apple gets a low PE. Yet every year Apple grows faster than Amazon and thus the stock gets reluctantly dragged upward.

    When Amazon collapses in stock price in the spring of 2012, Apple will finally get that money and we should see over $500 in Apple. Thus the pair trade is long AAPL and short AMZN.
    Dec 29, 2011. 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Vs. Apple: Competition Continues Among Investors [View article]
    and Apple is growing sales faster than Amazon with profits.
    Dec 29, 2011. 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Vs. Apple: Competition Continues Among Investors [View article]
    Amazon is creating growth by selling e-readers with zero profit per e-reader. The idea is that when the person buys the Kindle they will buy books and media from Amazon and that Amazon will profit off of this.

    My concerns:

    Apple makes money on the hardware and claims that the 30% iTunes cut makes no profit. Apple if the Kindle gets popular could drop the 30% to 20% which would force Amazon to match it. If that happens, Amazon is exposed and will take massive losses or increase the cost of the Kindles. Thus Amazon has no control since they do not own or make the content.

    Amazon states they may lose money in the Christmas Quarter. That is a disaster and anyone who says it is long term is fooling themselves. Amazon has said long term investments for about 10 years and still the profits are missing.

    Sales leadership is a path to economic destruction. Just ask HP and Dell.

    Logistics which is Amazon's specialty is getting replicated. Target and Walmart will get this right in the next year.

    Sales tax advantage is going away. Amazon is getting some tax holidays by agreeing to build distributions centers in states to trade investment for a tax holiday. How many warehouses do they really need and is all the warehouses eliminating their advantage over brick and mortar.

    The PE, the PE the PE.
    Dec 29, 2011. 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Not Satisfied With Being Second Fiddle To Apple [View article]
    First 90 day comparison
    Apple sells 3.3 million at $700 = $2.31 billion
    margin of 35% = profit of $808 million
    Amazon 3.9 milliion at $199 = $776 million
    Margin of 0 =no profit

    This quarter comparison
    Apple sells 18.6 million at $700 = $13 billion
    margin of 35% = profit of $4.5 billion
    Amazon 3.9 milliion at $199 = $776 million
    Margin of 0 =no profit
    Amazon sales projection is about $16 to 18 billion or just slightly more than the iPad sales.

    I Think that sums up the fact that the Kindle is not in the same league as Apple. As for Profit I predict that Apple's profit after tax is equal to or greater than 50% of Amazon's sales.


    Dec 5, 2011. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Kindle Fire Jumps To Second Place [View article]
    Amazon seems to have no profit motivation period. There whole wall street ruse is sales growth. We are making very little to no money now, but we will make it up on volume. How much volume or share can they really get.
    Dec 4, 2011. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Impact Of Kindle Fire On Its EPS [View article]
    Amazon is envious of Apple's ecosystem and has made no inroads on it. I see a war brewing where Apple will drop Amzon as a reseller which will hurt Amazon's top line. Next battle will be to remove theKindle and Amazon apps from the app store. Apple can easily marginalize Amazon and the loss of Apple products would be a deathblow. Just like at Staples, Ofice Max and Office Depot who should just give up since Apple refuses to sell to them.
    Nov 15, 2011. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Stock Should Trade Well Below $100 [View article]
    Down periscope, time to dive
    Oct 25, 2011. 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) shouldn't ignore the threat of an Amazon (AMZN) iPad rival, Wedge Partners says, asserting Amazon will release an Android-based (GOOG) 10-inch media-centric tablet "that leverages the broad range of content currently offered through Amazon.com." Amazon, of course, is the only contender with a content ecosystem to rival Apple's.  [View news story]
    Apple grew sales 93% year over year last quarter which was way more than Amazon's growth
    May 19, 2011. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misguided Government Attacks on Amazon.com and How to Play Them [View article]
    Amazon enjoys an advantage that other brick and mortar retailers could copy. In California like Virginia the consumer is required to pay the sales tax. Imagine buying stuff at Lowe's and they said, you can pay the sales tax now or pay it later. Everyone would say pay it later and then never pay. Amazon is effectively allowing everyone to cheat on their taxes but the Supreme Court has said this is OK so technically they are not breaking the law.

    Problem is how to companies and consumers deal with this. Take Apple a company headquarter in California. If you buy a computer in an Apple store or online they will charge you sales tax. However the consumer can go online and buy the same computer from a middleman such as Amazon and avoid the sales tax. Ask the Apple store to waive the tax and they cannot. Thus the consumer is crazy for buying local since they are overpaying for everything. Meanwhile Apple and other retailers are paying sales tax, property tax, hiring workers, etc which are necessary to have jobs, schools etc.

    If Amazon does not want to collect it, they should just 1099 you at the end of the year with a copy to the state. They have refused to do this by their fight with North Carolina.

    I have a big problem where Amazon has a distribution center like they do in Texas but they refuse to collect and pay sales tax. There is no way Amazon can win this lawsuit and the taxes due plus penalty will wipe out at least six months of earnings.

    I see more trouble for this overpriced retailer such as Apple refusing to sell product thru Amazon when Amazon delves into the tablet market this year with their version of a half baked tablet.
    May 17, 2011. 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taiwan OEMs  are getting orders from Amazon.com (AMZN) for a tablet PC, expected to start shipping in H2. Sources say Amazon will reduce the price of the Kindle, and use the tablet to take a run at the iPad (AAPL).  [View news story]
    Laughable, but no way going to be a competitor since the Android OS is half baked. Problem I see is that Amazon will say they sell these like hotcakes but never release any sales numbers.

    Hopefully this will set Steve Jobs off and he will cancel Amazon as an Apple reseller. Apple does not need them anyway which will be far more damaging to Amazon then it will be for Apple.
    May 3, 2011. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator Durbin to Propose New Internet Sales Tax [View article]
    But What if the internet sales division is not part of the store division. Bestbuy.com is a separate legal entity that has no presence in 49 states and they could not collect sales taxes and take Amazon on full force. Walmart is most likely set up the same way. I hope Walmart does this as it would expose the loop hole that allows consumers to cheat. The fact that Amazon does not require the collection of sales tax would be like your local hardware store says, not my problem you pay it to the state at the end of the year.
    Apr 26, 2011. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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