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maxiedog

maxiedog
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  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum: 50-90% Upside On 2014 Production Targets. [View article]
    - The SP collapsed and continued to fall on standard listing
    - Acreage is a North American yardstick and the fields are structure related not like the US shale plays ( as an example ) and so are volume defined structurally and not by area.
    - Two of their properties; Akri Bijeel ( 12.%% WI ) is extremely large but complex with poor production, Ber Bahr ( 40% WI ) is huge but has very heavy oil and poor reservoir characteristics giving very poor production. From a value standpoint they are currently irrelevant. A third, Sheikh Adi ( 80% WI ) is a medium-size field but there looks to be appraisal issues expressed by the SA-3 well currently drilling. The value driver is Shaikan and that recently was the subject of a CPR that crushed the previous assumptions ( then up to 4 Bn bbls ) of recoverable oil to a fraction of that.
    - The company issued bonds recently at hi-junk rates.
    - More cash will be needed in 2015.
    - Production has been touted publicly by management to be above 40K bpd at end-2013 for over 12 months beforehand. Actual performance 16K bpd today with the higher figures pushed to end-2014 and only 66K bpd in 2016.
    - OIP figures are a poor guide to recoverables in this complex region and in any case were also the subject of downward revision by the CPR.
    - company believed to be less-than-forthcoming with the Shaikan Jurassic OWC in the Sh-6 well ( 2 years old ) that caused the recent CPR to be so bad.
    - not a single guided target has been met either operationally or financially
    - Corporate governance still not regarded as being satisfactory
    - Market still not convinced about management
    - SP following successful conclusion of damaging court case in late-2013 was £2.25 and is now 93p. Says it all.

    etc etc.
    May 29 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum: 50-90% Upside On 2014 Production Targets. [View article]
    Second that. The CEO is a liability. Needs a clean-out ASAP.
    May 23 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Near-Term Catalysts [View article]
    The company released news on Shaikan-7 yesterday and it was not good. The well did not reach the targeted horizons after multiple sidetrack attempts. It will become another Jurassic ( heavy sour crude ) producer.

    The Akri-Bijeel interest has been on the market for years and no-one has yet shown interest. It is a minor participation and so production is not a significant factor in ameliorating cash burn.

    The company has additional cash calls from the Ber Bahr licence that will become material when the operator spuds the BB-2 well sometime in the coming months. There is no meaningful production coming from this licence for the foreseeable future to balance any expenditures.

    The biggest downside for GKP is the current management. It has a record of serial failure in meeting guidance that included over-ambitious targets for production and revenue in a mid-2013 investor presentation. As a result the market discounts their projections.
    May 15 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Investing In 2014 And Top Ideas [View article]
    Of the bits I read there is far too much superficiality. A key factor is major increases in production and Iraq was mentioned at 9 MM bpd by 2020. This is pure speculation as the best estimate exit-2014 for Iraq is 3 MM bpd and that is after de-bottlenecking at Basra which exports production from the super-giant Southern fields. The internal situation in Iraq is not stable with the Western majors increasingly seeking an exit because of security concerns and poor returns. An increase of 6 MM bpd or 200% of the exit-2014 figure within 6 years is a real stretch and any short-fall from a hi-volume lo-cost Iraq will be exceedingly difficult to replace.
    Mar 12 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Bakken shale oil carries high combustion risk [View news story]
    It's a relatively volatile hydrocarbon. It is not tar. If a railcar crashes it will rupture and probably burn. Deal with it by instituting the correct car design standards and rail safety culture. If not... railcars will crash and burn. If close at hand then people and property will burn. The kneejerks will then commence like a Busby Berkeley musical - with attorneys as the orchestra.
    Feb 24 12:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankers Petroleum: Massive Resource, Steep Production Growth, Strong Upcoming Catalysts, Significant Undervaluation [View article]
    Met the BP team in London some years ago and I agree wholeheartedly with the article; real oil men and serious business people. A great combination and I coulda.... shoulda... invested then - but of course chased after others. I am reconsidering BP after digesting the thesis again. Thanks for the article.
    Feb 5 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy: Troubled Oil And Gas Play Offering Over 50% Upside With Plenty Of Catalysts [View article]
    'IMO TLM has to get $5 to $10 per BOE for the undeveloped Kurdistan barrels at maybe 1B total barrels in place, for the two blocks to their net interest for Carl to make a buck here.'

    The contingent oil resource at Kurdamir is 400 MM bbls ( 160 MM nett TLM ) and that is worth $3 pb NPV ( full value ) at 40% WI on the known PSC terms. The adjacent Topkhana extension is a 60% WI and has a smaller oil resource presumed so say 300 MM bbls ( 180 nett ) possible there. TK-2 is about to spud and will report at end-Q1-2014 so that should be firmed up. There is a known gas resource of around 2 TCF on TK and 1 TCF on Kurdamir and typical gas pricing post-infrastructure build is $3.5 per 1000 cf or 1/2 or 1/3 of EU norms. TLM's costs to date will be around $250m and these can be recovered via production. The signing bonuses for their Kurdi licences were high and could be as much as $500m and will not be recoverable. If they decide to sell down TK-K then with the sunk costs any return to them is not going to be spectacular unless TK-2 comes in above expectation. Both the completed K-2 and K-3 wells that TLM operated had costly problems and delays and unsatisfactory tests from both a technical and commercial standpoint. A lot depends on TK-2 as to TLM's value in Kurdistan.
    Nov 19 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genel Energy Has Another 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    You fail to mention the Chia Surkh 10 & 11 wells that point to a significant light oil discovery in the SE of Kurdistan. GENL already tag this as having a 300 MM boe reserves potential and this could be placed on limited oil production with truck transportation of production. Westernzagros Resources, Talisman and GazProm Nefte ( GN ) in the adjacent Kurdamir and Garmian and GN additionally in the Shakal and Halabja blocks will add to outputs from this region providing a case for near-term infrastructure expansion.
    Oct 15 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    James; Having lived through every step of the Apple Mac vs Microsoft saga as a software entrepreneur I could no agree more with what you say. I made the same argument then that Apple should just licence their OS and UI to everyone. The rest is history.... Attack is the best method of defense and a closed and expensive system is a defensive posture. Occupy the market and the opposition cannot gain enough sustenance ( i.e. enough connections between humans to establish a cohort ) to attack you.
    Sep 17 04:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mart Resources: A 14% Yield And Big Catalysts [View article]
    Thanks for the piece. The UMU licence looks a very productive one assuming the pipeline issue can be resolved. An interesting company.
    May 9 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The PC Industry's Powerful New Weapon Against Tablets Is About To Be Unleashed [View article]
    A cry in the wind.
    Apr 28 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deposits over €100K at the Bank of Cyprus will be taxed at 62.5%, sources tell Reuters. The figure is far greater than officials originally indicated. Customers will get 37.5% of their deposits over the €100K threshold in bank shares while the remainder of their cash "may never be paid back."  [View news story]
    We have a principle in the West. It was called 'innocent until proven guilty'. We have another that forbade the assumption of 'guilt by association'. In the posts I have read the HNW depositors in Cyprus banks are presumed to be Russian mafia types etc. and so 'deserve it'. How is this certain? Why have these people not been investigated by EU authorities before now if they are? Secondly, what about those that definitely are not. There will be some. Even one innocent should be protected our principles. It is what makes us different. The robbery of depositors in Cyprus shows that the troika are as bad as these Russians and others presumed as crooks.
    Mar 30 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. [View news story]
    Customers are buying into the Apple eco-system. This is protected by a moat by top-of-tree software and service and buttressed by excellent hardware design. You can compete on the hardware but it is the eco-system that you cannot provide. It is not often observed but as the eco-system spreads it entices others into it not by 'leading-edge' but by the sheer numbers already within it. Grandma didn't buy an iPhone on day 1 because it was too 'new-fangled' but she will today because all her sons and daughters and grandchildren and their friends all have one. It is easier in every way for her to own one now. It's the avalanche effect when the question; ' How do I do this' is answered and taught by everyone else in the house. For 'Grandma' read the non-technically aware user - also known as the mass consumer.
    Mar 27 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Apple (AAPL) thrived because its CEO was a jack-of-all-trades who stood atop a mountain of experts," writes Bleacher Report founder Bryan Goldberg. "Let's face it -- Was Steve Jobs really an expert in anything? ... Would Tim Cook or Ron Johnson concede that Steve knew supply-chain or retail better than they did?" But Jobs "knew when to listen to each [expert], and when to stop listening to each one." Goldberg sees AOL, which he suspects is "rife with editors, engineers, and salespeople talking past each other," as a company sorely in need of a jack-of-all-trades. [View news story]
    The detailed aspects of hardware and software design are esoteric and take 100% attention. The technological generalist and strategic panorama-ist is King in these circumstances. Been there and proved it to myself - albeit in a more limited scope then the founder of Apple Inc. Job's greatest ability IMO was understanding the need and the possibilities afforded in the technologies that would be available 'soon' or could be encouraged to be available soon. Beyond this was Jobs' understanding that the consumer 'knew' that what they wanted should be seamlessly integrated and put in their hands. iTunes, AppStore, etc etc. It was a brilliance in soft design and not hardware that is the true core(!) of Apple . Profitability followed via the hardware but only because Apple owned the environment which allowed users to participate within it.
    Mar 23 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Q4 Preview: Performance In U.S. Gulf Of Mexico Will Drive Results [View article]
    Transocean managed to avoid responsibility for Macondo and Frade by placing the blame for their own failings ( BOPs that were not tested and did not work in the former ) on the E&P licence holder. A potential problem for them and other deepwater operators in sensitive areas ( i.e. off every continental margin ) is that the E&Ps may seek to place obligations ( rightfully ) on the rig owners. I would want to know from Transocean management what consequences and obligations there are / might be in future.
    Feb 28 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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