Dustinian

Krugman to China: Go Green or Pay the Price

Dr. Krugman tends to get very worked up on issues and his extremism is probably a result of his trip being so recent and will subside a bit over time.

This is a difficult situation because both the Chinese and Krugman make valid and correct points.The Chinese are starting to come around towards understanding the catastrophic effects of their river pollution and are attempting (at least in certain areas) to remedy this problem. They will most likely change their views in fossil fuels over time though it will probably be due to economics rather than morals when that time comes.

The question is will irreversible damage be done to our planet (in part due to the Chinese) by the time that change comes.

Must Read for China Investors: Fact and Fiction in China

I disagree with most of the CFR when it comes to their articles on China. I am an avid reader of foreign affairs, and the may/june issue focusing on China was deeply disappointing.

“Taxpayer, kiss your $6 billion or $8 billion goodbye. The restructuring of Chrysler will have cost you more than $12 billion. Just to make cars that nobody wanted and save jobs that couldn’t be saved.” (Deal Journal)

All this so we can have low quality and overly priced cars. Yes we can!

China Medical Gains Approval for Bladder Cancer Test

Too bad this hasn't had any positive impact on the price.

I suppose the force of being overbought is too powerful to be impact by a piece of good news.

What Long Term Bonds and Shanghai Indexes Are Telling Us

That treasury chart scared the crap out of me.

In terms of Shanghai, I must thank you for the chart. I knew a pullback was coming, but as you have illustrated, the index hits resistance and then continues its trend upwards. This confirms that if I wanted to sell during this cycle (which I had been considering), I have missed the ideal time to do it.

Petrobras Sets New Production Record

Everything highlighted in this article articulates all too clearly why I am long in Petrobras.

China: Economists Offer Disparate Views

Jun Ma's view sticks out to me. It seems that this is precisely what has, and will happen.

The question is, how big will future stimuli be, and can that alleviate the depth of the second W valley?

Possible Swine Flu Profit Trades

I am considering taking a position in Gilead. Not simply because of swine flu reaction, though that makes it more attractive. Gilead seems like a solid company with decent growth prospects and good analyst ratings.

However its book value is very high and a bit disturbing.

3 Reports That Should Indicate Continued Firming of Oil Prices

A good article and I agree. Your last paragraph sums up my thoughts exactly.

I too am long in Petrobras and have been waiting for a pullback to increase my position. This my be the pullback I've been waiting for. Perhaps I will wait to see if the price dips under $31.

China's Economic Growth Claims Lack Credibility

Obviously the CCP's statements should never be taken at face value. You are right in your dismay at the lack of objective and skeptical coverage in the media, but then again the majority of those in the media aren't exactly the most intelligent individuals.

Another reason why many seem to buy the CCP statements is because it is what people want to hear. However bad first quarter growth was, I still see around 7 percent growth for the Chinese economy this year as the following quarters will be vastly improved.

Goldman Raises China Stock Index Forecasts

Unfortunate but probably accurate.

Nevertheless, China's economic outlook HAS improved somewhat in the last couple months.


On Apr 27 09:24 AM Alan Young wrote:

> While I like China to invest in, does anyone think for a minute that
> GS gives ratings of anything based on cool-headed objective analysis,
> independently of their own investment positions?
> This tells me less about China than about GS: they went long China
> before the announcement, and will sell off when they've attracted
> enough suckers to run the price up more.
> I wonder how long they'll keep getting away with these games.

Strongest 2-Month Capital Goods Orders Increase in More than 4 Years

This is bullish news for those who think the worst has come to an end.

A few more lead indicators supporting that thought, and I will be won over too.

Mr. Roubini, Please Take a Seat

Your username and the title of the article explain all.

Roubini is extremely intelligent, but needlessly pessimistic. Much of what he says is accurate, but he seems to get off on reminding everyone how negative economic conditions are. That is what i dislike about him.

Oil Speculators: Watch Out

I think that this is good news (though I am still skeptical as to what steps will be actually be taken).

If last summer demonstrated anything, it showed how many commodities the price of oil impacts, and how wide ranging the impacts of speculation on oil futures can be. A speculation cap would be positive, in my opinion.

The Death of the Asian Development Model

Because of the future decrease in American consumption, it is very important that China changes its economic focus to sustain long term growth. they have made strides in this capacity, however not enough. I must hope that the former group of reformers wins out over the latter (the group of provincial party bosses). There is wisdom in coaxing the population during this time of crisis, but over the long run the Chinese have the challenge of changing the focus of their economic production.

In the end, I think both will occur. Policies which expand the social safety net and provide a greater cushion for the unemployed to fall back on will be created. However, the smarter leaders know that this is the time which China must change, as you said, its growth model and that argument must win out if China is to continue its impressive rise.