Dustinian's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/365251/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/138074-krugman-to-china-go-green-or-pay-the-price?source=feed#comment-507744 507744
This is a difficult situation because both the Chinese and Krugman make valid and correct points.The Chinese are starting to come around towards understanding the catastrophic effects of their river pollution and are attempting (at least in certain areas) to remedy this problem. They will most likely change their views in fossil fuels over time though it will probably be due to economics rather than morals when that time comes.

The question is will irreversible damage be done to our planet (in part due to the Chinese) by the time that change comes.]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 21:39:18 -0400
This is a difficult situation because both the Chinese and Krugman make valid and correct points.The Chinese are starting to come around towards understanding the catastrophic effects of their river pollution and are attempting (at least in certain areas) to remedy this problem. They will most likely change their views in fossil fuels over time though it will probably be due to economics rather than morals when that time comes.

The question is will irreversible damage be done to our planet (in part due to the Chinese) by the time that change comes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136801-must-read-for-china-investors-fact-and-fiction-in-china?source=feed#comment-499197 499197 Mon, 11 May 2009 13:44:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23009?source=feed#comment-483430 483430 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:01:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133609-china-medical-gains-approval-for-bladder-cancer-test?source=feed#comment-480753 480753
I suppose the force of being overbought is too powerful to be impact by a piece of good news.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:35:27 -0400
I suppose the force of being overbought is too powerful to be impact by a piece of good news.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133452-what-long-term-bonds-and-shanghai-indexes-are-telling-us?source=feed#comment-480745 480745
In terms of Shanghai, I must thank you for the chart. I knew a pullback was coming, but as you have illustrated, the index hits resistance and then continues its trend upwards. This confirms that if I wanted to sell during this cycle (which I had been considering), I have missed the ideal time to do it.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:33:59 -0400
In terms of Shanghai, I must thank you for the chart. I knew a pullback was coming, but as you have illustrated, the index hits resistance and then continues its trend upwards. This confirms that if I wanted to sell during this cycle (which I had been considering), I have missed the ideal time to do it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133468-petrobras-sets-new-production-record?source=feed#comment-480730 480730 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:28:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133471-china-economists-offer-disparate-views?source=feed#comment-480721 480721
The question is, how big will future stimuli be, and can that alleviate the depth of the second W valley?]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:26:51 -0400
The question is, how big will future stimuli be, and can that alleviate the depth of the second W valley?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133227-possible-swine-flu-profit-trades?source=feed#comment-479497 479497
However its book value is very high and a bit disturbing.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:46:10 -0400
However its book value is very high and a bit disturbing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133098-3-reports-that-should-indicate-continued-firming-of-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-479483 479483
I too am long in Petrobras and have been waiting for a pullback to increase my position. This my be the pullback I've been waiting for. Perhaps I will wait to see if the price dips under $31.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:37:22 -0400
I too am long in Petrobras and have been waiting for a pullback to increase my position. This my be the pullback I've been waiting for. Perhaps I will wait to see if the price dips under $31.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133306-china-s-economic-growth-claims-lack-credibility?source=feed#comment-479463 479463
Another reason why many seem to buy the CCP statements is because it is what people want to hear. However bad first quarter growth was, I still see around 7 percent growth for the Chinese economy this year as the following quarters will be vastly improved.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:31:34 -0400
Another reason why many seem to buy the CCP statements is because it is what people want to hear. However bad first quarter growth was, I still see around 7 percent growth for the Chinese economy this year as the following quarters will be vastly improved.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133311-goldman-raises-china-stock-index-forecasts?source=feed#comment-479145 479145
Nevertheless, China's economic outlook HAS improved somewhat in the last couple months.


On Apr 27 09:24 AM Alan Young wrote:

> While I like China to invest in, does anyone think for a minute that
> GS gives ratings of anything based on cool-headed objective analysis,
> independently of their own investment positions?
> This tells me less about China than about GS: they went long China
> before the announcement, and will sell off when they've attracted
> enough suckers to run the price up more.
> I wonder how long they'll keep getting away with these games.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:08:16 -0400
Nevertheless, China's economic outlook HAS improved somewhat in the last couple months.


On Apr 27 09:24 AM Alan Young wrote:

> While I like China to invest in, does anyone think for a minute that
> GS gives ratings of anything based on cool-headed objective analysis,
> independently of their own investment positions?
> This tells me less about China than about GS: they went long China
> before the announcement, and will sell off when they've attracted
> enough suckers to run the price up more.
> I wonder how long they'll keep getting away with these games.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133187-strongest-2-month-capital-goods-orders-increase-in-more-than-4-years?source=feed#comment-478520 478520
A few more lead indicators supporting that thought, and I will be won over too.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:45:55 -0400
A few more lead indicators supporting that thought, and I will be won over too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133201-mr-roubini-please-take-a-seat?source=feed#comment-478314 478314
Roubini is extremely intelligent, but needlessly pessimistic. Much of what he says is accurate, but he seems to get off on reminding everyone how negative economic conditions are. That is what i dislike about him.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:48:29 -0400
Roubini is extremely intelligent, but needlessly pessimistic. Much of what he says is accurate, but he seems to get off on reminding everyone how negative economic conditions are. That is what i dislike about him.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133174-oil-speculators-watch-out?source=feed#comment-478308 478308
If last summer demonstrated anything, it showed how many commodities the price of oil impacts, and how wide ranging the impacts of speculation on oil futures can be. A speculation cap would be positive, in my opinion.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:42:10 -0400
If last summer demonstrated anything, it showed how many commodities the price of oil impacts, and how wide ranging the impacts of speculation on oil futures can be. A speculation cap would be positive, in my opinion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133198-the-death-of-the-asian-development-model?source=feed#comment-478060 478060
In the end, I think both will occur. Policies which expand the social safety net and provide a greater cushion for the unemployed to fall back on will be created. However, the smarter leaders know that this is the time which China must change, as you said, its growth model and that argument must win out if China is to continue its impressive rise.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:19:53 -0400
In the end, I think both will occur. Policies which expand the social safety net and provide a greater cushion for the unemployed to fall back on will be created. However, the smarter leaders know that this is the time which China must change, as you said, its growth model and that argument must win out if China is to continue its impressive rise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133151-china-s-economy-on-the-rebound-goldman-concurs?source=feed#comment-478045 478045
The key statistics on that chart are the decline in export growth and the increase in domestic consumption. Both of which are happening in will on increase in the coming years.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:09:19 -0400
The key statistics on that chart are the decline in export growth and the increase in domestic consumption. Both of which are happening in will on increase in the coming years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133191-global-economy-is-clearly-on-the-mend?source=feed#comment-478034 478034
I think the fact that not every economic indicator is negative is a sign that the world crisis is slowing, but I cannot support the notion that it is on the mend. One cannot heal when all the damage has yet to be done.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:01:07 -0400
I think the fact that not every economic indicator is negative is a sign that the world crisis is slowing, but I cannot support the notion that it is on the mend. One cannot heal when all the damage has yet to be done.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133038-insiders-are-selling-into-the-rally?source=feed#comment-476737 476737
If I owned any financials, I'd sell. But being that I have already done that, I am hesitant to unload any of my emerging market stocks as I am skeptical that I will be able to pick them up again as cheaply as I did in the beginning of March.

All the signs are indicating that we are heading for a somewhat significant pullback, but I'd be surprised if the DOW went under 7,000 again.]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:16:16 -0400
If I owned any financials, I'd sell. But being that I have already done that, I am hesitant to unload any of my emerging market stocks as I am skeptical that I will be able to pick them up again as cheaply as I did in the beginning of March.

All the signs are indicating that we are heading for a somewhat significant pullback, but I'd be surprised if the DOW went under 7,000 again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22574?source=feed#comment-476736 476736
They probably did break the law. ]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:10:14 -0400
They probably did break the law. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132522-cramer-s-stop-trading-how-can-you-not-want-to-be-in-freeport-4-23-09?source=feed#comment-476308 476308 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:39:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132994-shared-perspective-buy-and-hold-is-changing?source=feed#comment-476293 476293

On Apr 24 02:08 PM William Cowie wrote:

> Buy and hold, done the Buffett way (i.e. with a lot of homework to
> pick very few stocks, and go big on them) is very much a viable strategy,
> especially these days. There are several solid, dividend-paying stocks
> with strong market franchises selling for reasonable prices today.
> Two years ago, with prices too high and cash running out of everyone's
> ears, that wasn't true. Even Buffett stubbed his toe in that time.
> But these days it is back true again.
>
> Not a popular view these days, but then again, his views were never
> popular at the time, only in hindsight...
> ]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:27:20 -0400

On Apr 24 02:08 PM William Cowie wrote:

> Buy and hold, done the Buffett way (i.e. with a lot of homework to
> pick very few stocks, and go big on them) is very much a viable strategy,
> especially these days. There are several solid, dividend-paying stocks
> with strong market franchises selling for reasonable prices today.
> Two years ago, with prices too high and cash running out of everyone's
> ears, that wasn't true. Even Buffett stubbed his toe in that time.
> But these days it is back true again.
>
> Not a popular view these days, but then again, his views were never
> popular at the time, only in hindsight...
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22577?source=feed#comment-476158 476158 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:15:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132312-brazilian-optimism-proceed-with-caution?source=feed#comment-476146 476146
Another point to remember is that many of Lula's social policies reduce profit margins of corporations, and furthermore many top companies are under partial government ownership.

However, precisely because of Brazil's lack of interior infrastructure, I am quite bullish on the Brazilian construction and housing sectors.

On the whole, Brazil is remarkably stable for a resource rich, emerging market nation. There are certainly drawbacks, but I am very positive in terms of investing long in Brazil.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:11:12 -0400
Another point to remember is that many of Lula's social policies reduce profit margins of corporations, and furthermore many top companies are under partial government ownership.

However, precisely because of Brazil's lack of interior infrastructure, I am quite bullish on the Brazilian construction and housing sectors.

On the whole, Brazil is remarkably stable for a resource rich, emerging market nation. There are certainly drawbacks, but I am very positive in terms of investing long in Brazil.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132535-diamond-offshore-drilling-is-a-good-oil-play?source=feed#comment-476117 476117
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This seems to be a very good long play as the price of oil increases and demand follows suit. Also, the future of oil is in deep waters, IMHO.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:56:15 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This seems to be a very good long play as the price of oil increases and demand follows suit. Also, the future of oil is in deep waters, IMHO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132937-is-china-the-next-great-bubble?source=feed#comment-476103 476103
However, your assertion about Obama's statement about "clinging to guns and religion" and the general reaction to the economic crisis and its relationship to Marxism is correct. I will admit that I did not think about that aspect of Marx when I read your original post.

Marxism conjures up some very strong connotations (be it right or wrong), and it was those images in conjunction with the many statements on Seeking Alpha I have read recently that the US has become communistic that dictated the tone of my response.


On Apr 24 01:27 PM wavelength wrote:

> Dustinian, I see you are still in school. This means I read Das Capital
> before you were born. By all means let us argue in the realm of ideas,
> but please do not insult or patronise me. Thank you for your kind
> words in relation to my assessment of China. I likewise saw wisdom
> in your earlier post. On the subject of Marxism, the central tenets
> of classical Marxism concern class warfare and the notion that capitalism
> is inherently exploitative because employers realize profit based
> on the labor of other. An agenda of "spreading the wealth", punishing
> business through confiscatory taxation, and demonizing free markets
> and private enterprise is most assuredly Marxist. So too was the
> President's statement about people facing economic dislocation "clinging
> to their guns and religion" as it reflects classical Marxian notions
> of religion as "superstructure", and indeed that most Marxian notion
> of all - that individuals all act primarily in response to economic
> and political forces, rather than being inherently different, unpredictable
> and subjects rather than objects. The social engineering, ruinous
> central planning, market distortion, and punitive taxation of the
> lunatic cap and trade plan is merely neo-Marxist and I will try to
> be more precise in future postings.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:45:31 -0400
However, your assertion about Obama's statement about "clinging to guns and religion" and the general reaction to the economic crisis and its relationship to Marxism is correct. I will admit that I did not think about that aspect of Marx when I read your original post.

Marxism conjures up some very strong connotations (be it right or wrong), and it was those images in conjunction with the many statements on Seeking Alpha I have read recently that the US has become communistic that dictated the tone of my response.


On Apr 24 01:27 PM wavelength wrote:

> Dustinian, I see you are still in school. This means I read Das Capital
> before you were born. By all means let us argue in the realm of ideas,
> but please do not insult or patronise me. Thank you for your kind
> words in relation to my assessment of China. I likewise saw wisdom
> in your earlier post. On the subject of Marxism, the central tenets
> of classical Marxism concern class warfare and the notion that capitalism
> is inherently exploitative because employers realize profit based
> on the labor of other. An agenda of "spreading the wealth", punishing
> business through confiscatory taxation, and demonizing free markets
> and private enterprise is most assuredly Marxist. So too was the
> President's statement about people facing economic dislocation "clinging
> to their guns and religion" as it reflects classical Marxian notions
> of religion as "superstructure", and indeed that most Marxian notion
> of all - that individuals all act primarily in response to economic
> and political forces, rather than being inherently different, unpredictable
> and subjects rather than objects. The social engineering, ruinous
> central planning, market distortion, and punitive taxation of the
> lunatic cap and trade plan is merely neo-Marxist and I will try to
> be more precise in future postings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132937-is-china-the-next-great-bubble?source=feed#comment-475978 475978

On Apr 24 12:22 PM wavelength wrote:

> China has embraced capitalism and the US has embraced Marxism. The
> US is in recession and the Chinese economy is still growing. (There
> is much argument about to what to degree, both inside and outside
> China. Wherever the true figure is on the 2%-8% continuum, being
> debated it is enviable.) China has huge reserves, a budget surplus,
> and a positive balance of payments. Their stimulus program is focused
> on genuine infrastructure - not pork and welfare. Perhaps it is a
> bubble, but it looks pretty good compared to the sinkhole the US
> has turned itself into. Don't rush to judgment, or dismiss their
> "single party state". The stranglehold of the left on the US Congress
> media, education, and public discourse is not so different. Yesterday
> the American news focused on how we should be prosecutung ourselves
> for our "war crimes" against the jihadists, and on how most Americans
> are stilll infatuated with the new President and actually believe
> America to finally be on the right track. The latest atrocious housing
> and employment figures were a footnote, described by the mainstream
> media as "surprising". Underestimating China, and believeing that
> we still hold some cards because China cannot call us to account
> without damaging its own economy is hopelessly naive. Kool aid drinkers
> may go ahead and give me all the thumbs down they want for my implied
> criticism of President Obama - this article is thin, misleading,
> and irresponsible in the way it panders to popular misunderstandings
> about China. Their domestic economy is huge, and engaged with with
> many other nations apart from the US. The suggestion that it is China
> that bears the brunt of problems such as toxic loans, lack of government
> accountability, a one-dimensional economy, and a terminal US dollar
> is almost funny. Does anyone on here seriously think it is China
> that is screwed?]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:43:54 -0400

On Apr 24 12:22 PM wavelength wrote:

> China has embraced capitalism and the US has embraced Marxism. The
> US is in recession and the Chinese economy is still growing. (There
> is much argument about to what to degree, both inside and outside
> China. Wherever the true figure is on the 2%-8% continuum, being
> debated it is enviable.) China has huge reserves, a budget surplus,
> and a positive balance of payments. Their stimulus program is focused
> on genuine infrastructure - not pork and welfare. Perhaps it is a
> bubble, but it looks pretty good compared to the sinkhole the US
> has turned itself into. Don't rush to judgment, or dismiss their
> "single party state". The stranglehold of the left on the US Congress
> media, education, and public discourse is not so different. Yesterday
> the American news focused on how we should be prosecutung ourselves
> for our "war crimes" against the jihadists, and on how most Americans
> are stilll infatuated with the new President and actually believe
> America to finally be on the right track. The latest atrocious housing
> and employment figures were a footnote, described by the mainstream
> media as "surprising". Underestimating China, and believeing that
> we still hold some cards because China cannot call us to account
> without damaging its own economy is hopelessly naive. Kool aid drinkers
> may go ahead and give me all the thumbs down they want for my implied
> criticism of President Obama - this article is thin, misleading,
> and irresponsible in the way it panders to popular misunderstandings
> about China. Their domestic economy is huge, and engaged with with
> many other nations apart from the US. The suggestion that it is China
> that bears the brunt of problems such as toxic loans, lack of government
> accountability, a one-dimensional economy, and a terminal US dollar
> is almost funny. Does anyone on here seriously think it is China
> that is screwed?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132981-paulson-changes-his-tune-on-bofa-and-merrill?source=feed#comment-475756 475756
Either way, it is Paulson and Lewis whose asses may soon be in the proverbial frying pan.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:06:58 -0400
Either way, it is Paulson and Lewis whose asses may soon be in the proverbial frying pan.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-475704 475704
*shriek* Command economy!


On Apr 23 01:47 PM Dana H. wrote:

> Yes, Dustinian, there is nothing at all socialistic about the President
> of the United States firing the CEO of GM. Nothing to see here folks.
> Move along.
>
> (To be precise, we're moving in the direction of fascism rather than
> traditional socialism, as aptly explained by Yaron Brook in this
> PJTV video: www.pjtv.com/video/PJT.../;jsessionid=abcDovzj_...
>
>
> As for China, I wish them the best, and hope they can keep moving
> in the direction of increased freedom. The more wealthy, capitalistic
> countries in the world there are, the better for all of us.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:48:27 -0400
*shriek* Command economy!


On Apr 23 01:47 PM Dana H. wrote:

> Yes, Dustinian, there is nothing at all socialistic about the President
> of the United States firing the CEO of GM. Nothing to see here folks.
> Move along.
>
> (To be precise, we're moving in the direction of fascism rather than
> traditional socialism, as aptly explained by Yaron Brook in this
> PJTV video: www.pjtv.com/video/PJT.../;jsessionid=abcDovzj_...
>
>
> As for China, I wish them the best, and hope they can keep moving
> in the direction of increased freedom. The more wealthy, capitalistic
> countries in the world there are, the better for all of us.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132937-is-china-the-next-great-bubble?source=feed#comment-475695 475695
Yes, China did overly rely heavily on exporting to rich countries, namely the US. But China is a diverse country which can change the focus of their economy. They are already beginning to do this by making up for lost global demand in their own country. They are securing resources at an alarming rate, and making key investments abroad for the coming decades (like their loans to Petrobras or Rosneft, and their takeover of the Kazakh state gas company).

We all seem to understand the dangers of the state economy, but the Chinese are arguably the smartest practitioners of this type of economy in history. Their bank lending program is not like Krushchev planting corn!

Finally, if you listen to CCP elites like commerce minister Chen Denming have to say, one of their biggest focuses in the coming years is to improve the healthcare system and widen the social safety net.

China obviously has problems, namely that it is a single party state, but think of where it was twenty years ago. In another twenty years I wouldn't be surprised if it had surpassed the US in economic strength. The Chinese will come out of this crisis far stronger, and the US far weaker.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:43:33 -0400
Yes, China did overly rely heavily on exporting to rich countries, namely the US. But China is a diverse country which can change the focus of their economy. They are already beginning to do this by making up for lost global demand in their own country. They are securing resources at an alarming rate, and making key investments abroad for the coming decades (like their loans to Petrobras or Rosneft, and their takeover of the Kazakh state gas company).

We all seem to understand the dangers of the state economy, but the Chinese are arguably the smartest practitioners of this type of economy in history. Their bank lending program is not like Krushchev planting corn!

Finally, if you listen to CCP elites like commerce minister Chen Denming have to say, one of their biggest focuses in the coming years is to improve the healthcare system and widen the social safety net.

China obviously has problems, namely that it is a single party state, but think of where it was twenty years ago. In another twenty years I wouldn't be surprised if it had surpassed the US in economic strength. The Chinese will come out of this crisis far stronger, and the US far weaker.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132745-the-politics-of-personality-getting-geithner?source=feed#comment-475210 475210
He is clearly a smart guy, but lacks the force of personality Paulson had. Whether you agreed with his policies or not, he knew how to deal with legislators. Geithner on the other hand, has started kissing Barney Frank's ass since the initial, sharp criticism he received. He most likely has many of Wall Street's interest as his own, being that he came from the New York Fed.]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 23:55:59 -0400
He is clearly a smart guy, but lacks the force of personality Paulson had. Whether you agreed with his policies or not, he knew how to deal with legislators. Geithner on the other hand, has started kissing Barney Frank's ass since the initial, sharp criticism he received. He most likely has many of Wall Street's interest as his own, being that he came from the New York Fed.]]>