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ArkansasAngie

ArkansasAngie
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  • The Euro Exhibits Systemic Macro Weakness [View article]
    If the dollar survives, the euro will. If the dollar implodes so also will the euro. And ... equally important, if the euro implodes so also will the dollar.

    The problem with a growth based economic strategy is that it falls apart when there is no growth.

    We used AIG bailout money to prop up European financial institutions (and a few of our own, of course).

    So ... are you willing to bet that they aren't going to need additional funds.

    Perhaps the better question might be are you willing to give it to them?

    I'm reminded of the old IRS joke when the IRS agent tells the taxpayer -- "perhaps you'd feel better if you stop thinking of it as your money".
    Apr 12 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxpayers Contributing to Record Bank Profits and Other Frustrating Economic Developments [View article]
    Dang. Shucks. Heck fire. Dad gum. Darn. Shoot. Son of a biscuit eater. Frick. Well I'll be a yellow-bellied sapsucker. Shoot a monkey.

    Ha!

    Talk about pissing in the wind! The problem is I seem to be standing next to him.

    You can't make an argument for or against anything without having to make a list of caveats. And the big one right now is whether the facts you are using for your particular argument are true or not.

    If the fact that I think we're being lied too regularly makes me a conspiracy nut then "the shoe fits".

    Did any of ya'll play the card game "pig" as a kid? The first one who gets 4 of a kind slyly puts their finger on their nose. The last person to put their finger on their nose is the pig. Personally I'm looking for fingers on noses and I don't intend on being the last one.

    If China could they'd dump the dollar. They can’t without paying a big price for it in the here and now. The move to establish the yuan is a strategic move that will lead to their eventual decoupling from the dollar.

    I sure hope we're thinking strategically, too.
    Apr 12 08:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Week: VXV and the Risk of Systemic Failure [View article]
    How much of the reduction in risk as defined by VXV is a result from quants?

    As program trading pounces on intra-day arbitrage opportunities, it smoothes out volatility. In other words it distorts the market by making it look less risky than it actually is.

    Information is power and the FEDury has a strangle hold on information. As they pursue the greater good, you can bet your bottom dollar that sacrificing individual investors is OK with them.
    Apr 12 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sign That Markets Need a Break [View article]
    Tetrapod! I believe you have single handedly uncovered the FEDury's strategy.

    Now if they can just get all the lemmings to line up and start their march toward the cliff.
    Apr 10 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Oil Price Could Slow or Kill Economic Recovery [View article]
    The price of oil is a big deal.

    If this is just an American problem then oil will start its march higher on global consumption. If it's global, then oil will remain weak … for a while anyway.

    And ... while my 20 years in Houston and Dallas doing business with oil companies gives me nothing more than a dilettante’s knowledge, I feel entirely qualified to say that if the price of oil goes up it will negatively affect our economy.

    Taxing oil shouldn't be thrown out ideologically. Taxes are going to go up -- another statement I feel entirely qualified to make. Taxing consumption of an imported product and funneling that money toward energy independence may be a better tax than many others our leaders are contemplating.
    Apr 10 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preliminary Thoughts on the New Face of Consumer Demand [View article]
    The question appears to be how quickly can American consumerism be replaced by others? Will it be quick enough to keep excess capacity from going bankrupt?

    Can Japan's economy survive intact if its exports remain at this level for an extended time? The FOMC indicated that they'll have to for at least through 2010. Can China's or Hungary's?

    Tyler -- your instincts are good. You're always following the money.

    Apr 10 09:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish on Homebuilders [View article]
    Hold on guys. I'm a home builder. Maybe Sean Hannon will buy me -- or at least, put out a buy recommendation for me.

    Actually ... if we can mitigate uncertainty, there are indeed regions where new custom homes would start being built again.

    Northwest Arkansas, where I live, has a steady stream of people moving in. Our climate is temperate, we don't have earthquakes or hurricanes and, believe it or not, hillbillies make good neighbors.
    Apr 10 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking for Direction in Unknown Economic Waters [View article]
    Of all the various scenarios about this market, I believe that a "V" shaped recovery is the least likely. Looking to jump into the market and "catch" the bottom would only be applicable in a "V" shaped market.

    Without running through the alphabet, I think we should count ourselves lucky if we do get an "L" shaped recovery.

    The problem of course is that we don't know whether what the FEDury has done so far will work and whether their medicine won't make us sicker down the road.

    Predicting the future is hard. It's doubly hard when you don't have all the information and/or that information is suspect.

    Sean Hannon correctly pinpoints a pivot point -- is it just America or is it the whole world?

    If it's just America:
    • The FEDury will successfully drive the dollar down
    • There might be enough global savings to buy the FEDury’s debt instruments.
    • Maybe our exports will lead the way for us.
    • Maybe the world will be able to restrain protectionism.
    • Imported fu-fu stuff will become more expensive and help shift America away from abject consumerism.

    On the other hand, if this is truly global:

    • Who knows where the dollar will end up
    • Global savings will go toward internal domestic spending – FEDury’s might be a tough sell
    • Our exports will be in for a long slog
    • Protectionism will be tough to resist
    • Fu-fu will be irrelevant.

    Now there’s a theme for you – short fu-fu stuff manufacturers. Gee … that would be China wouldn’t it.
    Apr 10 08:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elizabeth Warren Sidesteps the Question [View article]
    It's about dad gum time somebody asked the question and if begging works well ... :P

    Fun aside .. Your conclusion is absolutely right.

    "Only when we know our destination can we determine whether we are on the right road. I hope that Ms. Warren and her committee encourage the Treasury to define clearly its goals as strongly as she asks it to defend its strategy."

    I'm thinking though that "encourage the Treasury" to "mandate the Treasury" would be better.

    The Treasury works for the American people. It's constituents are not the banks, hedge funds, insurance companies. Their fiduciary responsibility is to the taxpayer.

    You've got to tell us what the heck you're doing.
    Apr 9 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charting the Ugliness of Earnings [View article]
    There are many shoes out there. One is earnings. The number of companies filing for bankruptcy maybe turn out to be quite pronounced. The resulting dominos of unemployment, CDS’s, supply chain et al create their own trend/spiral.

    The list of companies in trouble is growing … not shrinking. And … as always … it comes down to earnings. Did you make enough money to pay your bills.

    Out of curiosity – doesn’t M2M affect non-financial companies, too? Is there a quick/dirty/easy way to check how a company is handling this?
    Apr 9 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja Vu All Over Again: This Week Keeps On Being Not What You Think [View article]
    Super duper!

    Digesting this and trying to form some cohesive idea of what is going on … much less predict the future is an exercise.

    Thanks to you Tyler I don’t trust seasonal adjustments, bank earnings, or government pronouncements.

    My little corner of the world is feeling this – whatever you want to call it. I surely would like things to get better … but my gut says when in doubt be conservative.
    Apr 9 01:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out for Dummies - Part I [View article]
    Here your choice

    You can set it up so that the people who are lost the money don't lose as much and give the other big guys all the opportunities.

    or

    You can make the banks eat it all and let investors (aka capitalists, entrepreunuers and owners) like you and me make money by buying the house (shopping mall) next door to them at their economic value -- 5% to 10% return on their money from rents.
    Apr 8 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Risk is the Treasury Really Assuming from Financial Institutions? [View article]
    Thanks for the homework.

    I'm thinking these 4 entities and their management need to be disbanded.

    The jokes up and it wasn't funny.

    Whatever the real numbers are you can bet you bottom dollar that they are incorrect. Between lying with statistics and inaccurate numbers in the first place, the actual numbers are more likely higher than lower.
    Apr 8 08:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death of Mortgage Banking and the Shadow Banking System [View article]
    When this bill comes up to a vote let's all hope that our representatives actually read the bill.
    Apr 8 07:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Circular Thinking about Geithner's Plan [View article]
    So Cetin Hakimoglu ... if the rally goes away and the uptick in econ data is wiped away with revisions does that mean that Geithner's plan isn't working?

    I'd perfer "collateral windfalls" to come my way -- and would were I allowed to buys assets from banks based on rent equivalents.

    On the other hand there are many reasons why I'd be against "collateral windfalls" for the yahoo's who got us into the situation and/or who happen to have friends in high places.

    Apr 8 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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