There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
The market is on a permanent high trajectory that cannot be stopped. By this time next year, Main St. will be back in full mode and unemployment will hover at 4%. The central banks have finally gotten it right and realized that you really can print your way to prosperity.
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
Sure he does wyo. It ends in a new reserve currency.
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
As a fiscally conservative libertarian, neither party represents my views, but both subsidize parasites in their own fashion. The new political paradigm which dates back to the Progressive era of the early 1900s, the creation of the Fed and the imposition of federal income tax is an unstoppable force which attempts to remove all risk from society by adding layer upon layer of social and corporate welfare programs. It is undeniable that society as a whole has benefited from this largess, but we Have now become addicted to it and believe these policies to be human rights that must be provided despite cost. Government can spend at whim and the Fed can provide all the liquidity the markets need to find support. This is now a commonly held belief. I'm convinced it will end poorly. I just don't know when.
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
Let me know when to bail out. I'm only 15% in cash.
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
At some point, even the dumb money stopped buying tulip bulbs.
Knocking stocks for a few points is San Francisco Fed President Williams reiterating his hope QE can begin to be tapered this summer and halted by year's end. This is not the first time Williams has said such, but he does reside in the FOMC's dovish camp. He notes even without QE, Fed policy would remain extraordinarily stimulative. [View news story]
Warren Buffet doesn't like gold, but I do. For the same reason Buffet likes stocks, I like gold. I don't care what the price is today. I only need to know whether it will be a good long term hold. Like any asset class, it can be a good or bad short term trade. In a word, its money. Right now, the dollar is strong; ergo, gold isn't. Think of it this way, if you stash cash, what would you rather have in a safe undisclosed location, dollars or gold?
On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down." [View news story]
Maybe. It all depends on the macro picture. The paper trade has given some cover to the central banks to continue their experiments and they could keep the ball in the air for some time, but the fiats are getting a little long in the tooth and anyone holding physical would be well advised to to keep it.
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
I have enjoyed trading this market and holding on to some long term investments; although, I remain generally bearish on the economy as a whole. Main Street is still in the doldrums and many state and local governments are struggling to fund their pension liabilities. I won't even begin to talk about unfunded and off balance sheet liabilities on the federal level. The Fed is engaging in unpresidented experimentation with Keynesian pump priming which causes me to hedge with some precious metals and other hard assets. Natural gas could well fuel the next economic boom if the politicians and fear mongers would get out of the way.
Childless Keynesians And The Future They Made [View article]
"Politicians have never seemed to be able to follow the second part of Keynes' prescription-they tend to run deficits at all times-but it seems unfair to blame this latter failing on Keynes." Like it or not, Keynes' observations have given politicians the cover they need to avoid spending cuts and get thrown out of office. The only way to stay in office is to spend money on constituents who could care less whether their children or grandchildren get stuck with the bill.
There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
Stocks at all-time highs aren't reeling in too many investors to the bullish side on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey which shows a 2.3 point decline in bulls to 38.5% - just below the long-term average of 39%. Bears gained 1.9 points to 29.3%. also just under the long-term average. [View news story]
Knocking stocks for a few points is San Francisco Fed President Williams reiterating his hope QE can begin to be tapered this summer and halted by year's end. This is not the first time Williams has said such, but he does reside in the FOMC's dovish camp. He notes even without QE, Fed policy would remain extraordinarily stimulative. [View news story]
Ugly Charts [View article]
On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down." [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
Molycorp (MCP): Q1 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.15 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $146.4M beats by $9M. Shares +5.6% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Childless Keynesians And The Future They Made [View article]
Childless Keynesians And The Future They Made [View article]
Like it or not, Keynes' observations have given politicians the cover they need to avoid spending cuts and get thrown out of office. The only way to stay in office is to spend money on constituents who could care less whether their children or grandchildren get stuck with the bill.