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globalbusy

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  • Zynga Betting On Mobile Games [View article]
    ZNGA lost a li'l bit of spotlight in the pre 2012 era, but new CEO Mattrick is implementing a LONGTERM strategy. 2013/14 is laying the foundation for it. With NM in their camp, I expect ZNGA to grow significantly especially with their comfortable cash position that will help them catapult to a higher plane in 3 to 5 years. Share BUYBACK is a must for AAPL but for ZNGA it will be inappropriate. They need the cash for their expansion, with shares undiluted. I am LONG on ZNGA and want no part of stock buyback.

    I think ZNGA will trade at $ 12 by year end 2015, $25 by YE 2018 and $50 by YE 2022.
    essentially doubling in first two years, then doubling in three and then doubling in four years.
    Feb 18 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CAMAC Energy's Gross Overvaluation Is A Gift From Santa Claus To All Short Sellers For 2014 [View article]
    It is an excellent article.

    I beg to differ from the author and think Sandy is right in the calculation. 66c for the diluted share is 1.60 or so for the currently traded share. About the 300 Mln figure, I agree with the author.

    Globalbusy
    Jan 4 01:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    The more do you make them guess,
    the more they love your technique.

    Great advice in catchy music that reigned supreme decades ago.

    Apple does the same, we, the customers, love their new introductions. That they keep us guessing all the time adds to the fun.

    Apple has a wonderful ecosystem; has cult like geeks as sincere followers; has a bank balance that is the envy of all corporate and government executives. Apple is just a dream for all companies and corporate executives.

    It is far too early to believe in the exaggerated death of Apple that
    is reported in the obituary columns of the poor bears. Let them eat their crow and let Apple keep making them greater fools year by year.

    Have been long AAPL for ever for so many years and expect to be so for many more years. Study the figures, then you will know why you need to follow me and the other bulls whose number is legion.
    Dec 22 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Week 11 Sales Up Big [View article]
    Spencer: Thank you for your reliable analytic approach in your articles. I had raised this point before but did not get your reply. Maybe you can comment on it this time.

    Some writers (perhaps, including you) have mentioned that in the absence of a proper guidance by the Company, everyone is using a number of 150Mn by the year end, as mentioned by an official of the company in some context.

    I think there is some confusion in my mind and probably in the mind of many investors as to what the reference to this 150 Mln by the year end means. I think it is not to be construed as the total sales till the year end. Maybe, it was meant to say that the Company would reach an annualized level of RATE OF SALES of 150 Mln by the year end. i.e., approximately 3 Mln per week level of sales (NET) by the year end. Do you think such explanation may be the case?
    I am long in ARNA, long term
    Sep 1 01:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales Pace 10 Weeks In [View article]
    Spencer: Thank you for your reliable analytic approach in your articles. Some writers (perhaps, including you) have mentioned that in the absence of a proper guidance by the Company, everyone is using a number of 150Mn by the year end, as mentioned by an official of the company in some context.

    I think there is some confusion in my mind and probably in the mind of many investors as to what the reference to this 150 Mln by the year end means. I think it is not to be construed as the total sales till the year end. Maybe, it was meant to say that the Company would reach an annualized level of RATE OF SALES of 150 Mln by the year end. i.e., approximately 3 Mln per week level of sales by the year end. Do you think such explanation may be the case?
    I am long in ARNA, long term.
    Aug 24 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Back At Prior Belviq Sales Predictions [View article]
    Rohan, I think you meant to say
    52weeks= 6 million not sixty

    LONG ARNA for long time and will be so for long in future too.
    This will prove to be a nice blockbuster in due course.
    Aug 5 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: First I Was Furious, Then I Bought More Shares [View article]
    This article is a good catalyst for the forum to develop useful discussion.

    My two cents poses the following questions/comments.
    !. The author might have considered the possibility of ZNGA working with the biggies in gambling in LV/USA.
    2. As someone suggested, is it possible that ZNGA and MSFT could work together?
    3. Why is it that the management has not explained the reasons behind their action? Do they owe it to you and me, the shareholders?
    4. How will this decision affect online gambling business in UK/Europe.

    Keep the good work friends, I am LONG on ZNGA. and am optimistic.
    Jul 29 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConsumerReports advises overweight individuals to just "skip" Arena Pharmaceuticals' (ARNA -2.2%) Belviq citing "slim results" and "risks galore." The nonprofit says its medical advisers note that users can expect to lose only 3-3.7% of their body weight over the course of a year and may gain it back. Risk factors cited in the report include "headache, dizziness, fatigue, nausea, dry mouth, and constipation." The report recommends the following alternative: "eat less and exercise." [View news story]
    My respect for CR has diminished considerably.

    CR: Please stay away from medical topics, we have FDA for that.
    Jun 15 02:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ariad's Iclusig Is A Potential Blockbuster [View article]
    This is a very well written article. Congrats to the author. However I would think that an additional table showing estimated EPS at different levels of sales for various years would have been an icing on the cake.
    Jun 3 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington [View article]
    Aids patient

    In my post, see last but two paragraph, I had raised three points of concern. The third pertains to Irish Govt. Today already another SA post has reported "Ireland is reportedly looking closing the "Double Irish" loophole that allows multinational companies to keep their tax bills low by funneling their profits through two linked Irish subsidiaries".

    There will also be actions on points one and two, just wait and see.

    My concerns are very valid, despite your considered disagreement.
    May 27 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington [View article]
    Tim Cook proved himself adept in countering the criticism of the well tutored senators. A few years ago when Citigroup came under great criticism, their CEO Vikram Pandit was called in by the congress and the media wrote an obituary for Pandit that proved too exaggerated.
    Cook, Pandit and co have the first hand knowledge and extreme competence versus the tutored knowledge of some in the congress.

    I am long both in AAPL and C. I am proud to be a long term shareholder in both companies headed by extraordinary leaders.

    I like AAPL to pay the legally permitted minimum tax. It is not my worry or Tim cook's or any of yours as to how congress will meet their expenses. That is a separate subject for a different day.

    If everybody found a legal way not to pay taxes, we will have no roads, or police or FEMA, FDA, Center for disease control, money for national security or to fight questionably necessary wars in the mideast at a Billion Dollars a day, etc. To meet all that, Congress enacts legislation, tax bills, budget, etc. and as law abiding citizens we should pay the legally required minimum.
    If anyone wants to pay more, that will come under the chapter "Charity" not taxes.

    Having said all this, do I think AAPL did what I can be proud of? I have my own deliberations and consequent questions. Not if it was all ethical, but was it totally kosher!

    Transfer Pricing (TP) is an involved topic of great importance and complexity. Would it be legal for AAPL to create a subsidiary JUST to facilitate using TP as a technique to maximize profits in the hands of the tax advantaged subsidiary and reduce profits of the tax paying entities in different countries? I have doubts. The Governments of all those countries will be simply furious.

    A 60-40 share in R&D expenses of a tax advantaged subsidiary for a 60-40 benefit in the IP rights and assets is highly questionable as a proper business or economically sensible decision. The acid test is if AAPL would have offered the same terms to any one else other that its own TAX-ADVANTAGED subsidiary. Obviously not. That is counter to the basic principle of an arms length transaction.
    In other words, these are perhaps maneuvers to evade the tax liability that would get into the "ILLEGAL" category.

    While I am proud of the manner in which Tim Cook came out at the end of the day, I am honestly worried about the following likely consequences:
    1. Action BY EU governments
    2. Enquiry by Justice in the US Govt.
    3. How will Irish Govt respond?
    These are serious issues and loyal shareholders have reason to be worried about.

    Though I was happy that Sen Rand Paul came in support of AAPL, I think that was just a political gimmickry on his part and will stand useless in case of an onslaught by Justice.

    Sensible and suitable dialogues in a politically and legally feasible manner at an early date to find a quick closure to this affair in a quiet manner will be in the interest of all of us shareholders.
    May 23 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga's Deteriorating Outlook - Time To Move On [View article]
    I don't see much of a discussion on ZNGA's opportunities in real time gambling all over the world. I think ZNGA will double by the next four quarters. Long and increasing my holdings in ZNGA.
    May 5 12:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risky Truth About Apple's Dividend [View article]
    This article has nothing new in it and I wonder what is the purpose of this article? Totally superficial, redundant and almost irrelevant. Investors of $17 Bln did not think of it as any big risk to even warrant a risk premium!
    May 4 01:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    The writer has assumed $ 400, 500 and 600 as prices for AAPL in 2013, 14 and 15 respectively. Then why buy only about $20 B worth of stock in 2013, why not $40B? or even $ 50B? That will be beneficial in increasing EPS from 2013 onwards. Also at 2013 prices you can buy more shares than the assumed prices for 14 and 15.
    Apr 30 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Word Of Caution About Bank Of America's Share Buyback [View article]
    Everybody has 20/20 rear vision especially critics. When BOA bought back shares, the shareholders appreciated it. Nobody anticipated the fiscal meltdown of 2008. Nobody knew of skeletons in the mortgage banking business. Mangements like anybody else can only make decisions on info they have on hand. If we can criticize BAC, we should do so of almost every major bank.

    Today we are concerned with our investments as of today and for tomorrow. I think share buybacks and dividend increases will help and the mangement clearly wants to do right by the shareholders.
    When the economic cycle improves, this is the time for buyback and I am happy they are doing it. I am also reasonably certain BAC will approach its book value within a year and take almost a vertical flight in 2014-25, if business all over the world improves. If you waited too long, you will almost certainly pay much more than the cost of holding the stocks from now on.

    BAC is one of my top five holdings.
    Mar 18 09:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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