brombonz

Thoughts on the Retail Environment in January 2009

Correcting typo: two-year comp for BKE should be 36.6%, not 26.6%,


On Feb 09 09:40 AM brombonz wrote:

> You say, "Overall the results were fairy dismal with the exception
> of Wal-Mart (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), BJ's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Aeropostale (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Hot Topic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)."
>
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> Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores)
> the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public
> companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named
> only two of them.
>
> In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's
> +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?
>
> Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a
> rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year
> comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions:
> the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic
> chain's positive 8.8%.
>
> On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on
> top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January
> 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but
> HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline
> in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis
> would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store
> sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether
> the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.
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