brombonz

Fred's Could Be 50% Undervalued Compared to Peers

Fred's real peers are the Alco stores of DUCK and the Pamida stores once owned by Shopko, as well as Wal*Mart and perhaps the "dollar" stores you mention.

Buffalo Wild Wings: Growing Despite a Recession

Notably absent from "high-growth peers" is RRGB, and confounding quick-serve (CMG) and the anomalous PEET with casual dining chains is not useful. However I appreciated the detailed and systematic approach.

Hot Topics Won't Stay Hot for Long

Oh, I didn't mean to ignore positive (although low single-digit) comps from two off-pricers, ROST and TJX.

Hot Topics Won't Stay Hot for Long

"Torrid's weak same store sales numbers indicate that selling to such a specific demographic is risky."

Now there's an overstatement, when nearly all of apparel retail are showing "weak same store sales numbers." In themselves, in this retail environment, they indicate nothing about Torrid except that it is NOT one of the rare few (BKE, ARO and until the last couple of months, APP) which have been increasing SSS.

In fact, if I recall correctly, for at least one recent quarter Torrid's comps were superior to Hot Topic's.

Why I Like TBS International

"Fellow bulk dry shippers DRYS and EXM, who currently yield dividends of 16.2% and 36.0% respectively:"


"PRESS RELEASE
Excel Maritime Provides Charter Status Update and Announces Suspension of Dividend
Last update: 8:31 a.m. EST Feb. 17, 2009"



"DryShips Announces Significant Reductions in Its Capital Expenditures and Suspension
of the Dividend Effective for the Fourth Quarter 2008
Company Also Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2008 Results
ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwire - January 22, 2009) "

A Stairway to Retail Heaven (Part 2)

Whoops: Wrong Visa link;Here's the correct one:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

Also, perhaps I should explain that the BankAmericard was mailed to all or to selected BofA depositors. As I recall, it was activated by using it, and of course the card was not as variously useful as it has become.



On Mar 04 05:31 PM brombonz wrote:

> "The credit card wasn’t invented until 1967."
>
> Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from
> the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard"
> (then so titled) morphed into Visa.
>
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)
>
> No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your
> basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men
> walking or sick.
>
> In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore
> was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing?

A Stairway to Retail Heaven (Part 2)

"The credit card wasn’t invented until 1967."

Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard" (then so titled) morphed into Visa.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men walking or sick.

In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing?

Thoughts on the Retail Environment in January 2009

Correcting typo: two-year comp for BKE should be 36.6%, not 26.6%,


On Feb 09 09:40 AM brombonz wrote:

> You say, "Overall the results were fairy dismal with the exception
> of Wal-Mart (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), BJ's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Aeropostale (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Hot Topic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)."
>
>
> Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores)
> the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public
> companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named
> only two of them.
>
> In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's
> +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?
>
> Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a
> rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year
> comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions:
> the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic
> chain's positive 8.8%.
>
> On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on
> top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January
> 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but
> HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline
> in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis
> would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store
> sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether
> the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.
>
>
>
>
>
>

Thoughts on the Retail Environment in January 2009

You say, "Overall the results were fairy dismal with the exception of Wal-Mart (WMT), BJ's (BJ), Aeropostale (ARO) and Hot Topic (HOTT)."

Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores) the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named only two of them.

In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?

Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions: the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic chain's positive 8.8%.

On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.

Retailers on the Extinction List

It's also bilge that CACH is closing all stores. Here's a link to the company's IR web page, with links to press releases, a presentation to analysts only last week, financial info., etc.

Reconsidering Penny Stocks

There is a difference between boiler room promotions and listed stocks that have fallen on hard time.

I follow specialty retail closely, especially apparel, and a number of companies have seen their shares drop below $1 or threateningly close: CHRS Charming Shoppes (Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherine's)), NWY (New York & Co.), CMRG (Casual Male XL, the only large chain for the "big and tall"), CWTR (Coldwater Creek), PSUN (Pacific Sunwear) $1.01, EBHI (Eddie Bauer) and FOH (Federick's of Hollywood) for example, in the apparel group and HMX and ZQK basically in wholesale.

Elsewhere, in addition to RAD, I see ACMR, BONT, GMTN, PIR, RVI, SPCHA/ SPCHB and TUES.

I don't mean to say these are or were big caps. Simply that lumping them in with the hundreds of "get rich quick" solicitations I and others receive every year (I just threw out a stack nearly four-feet high, abandoning my idea of finding an enterprising business reporter who would like to look into the several "middle man" companies that engineer these promotions) is kind of reckless.

Perhaps you don't have software programs that could sort other than by price. If so, so be it.

Appreciate your asking for input.

Retail Bright Spots This Holiday Season

Oh, and my question was how do you explain the phrase "continue to profit."
Explaining the word "profit" is a snap. But, after all, isn't it what remains after deducting expenses, including those resulting from bad decisions and/or poor execution?


On Dec 03 10:07 AM brombonz wrote:

> I'm aware of the Texas situation. It has not been the only problem.
> I've followed the company since its IPO. It would be correct to say
> it is positioned properly to benefit from economic bad times. It
> is another thing to say management can turn that into profit, and
> increasing profit at that. I don't know that they have overcome their
> warehouse/distribution problems. I lived in L.A. for 35 years and
> am quite familiar with the stores. I last shopped there in the summer
> of 2006 while vacationing from my current home in Florida. I've been
> a shareowner at various times, as recently as earlier this year.
> Since I liked the stores (all the locations I've been familiar with,
> have been jammed with shoppers), the great appeal to me had been
> the exceedingly small store base compared with DLTR, FDO and the
> former DG, and the potential for national expansion. The failure
> in TX has lessened, if not eliminated, that appeal. It remains to
> be seen if management can transcend its previous shortcomings and
> turn steady, possibly growing, revenues into profit.

Retail Bright Spots This Holiday Season

I'm aware of the Texas situation. It has not been the only problem. I've followed the company since its IPO. It would be correct to say it is positioned properly to benefit from economic bad times. It is another thing to say management can turn that into profit, and increasing profit at that. I don't know that they have overcome their warehouse/distribution problems. I lived in L.A. for 35 years and am quite familiar with the stores. I last shopped there in the summer of 2006 while vacationing from my current home in Florida. I've been a shareowner at various times, as recently as earlier this year. Since I liked the stores (all the locations I've been familiar with, have been jammed with shoppers), the great appeal to me had been the exceedingly small store base compared with DLTR, FDO and the former DG, and the potential for national expansion. The failure in TX has lessened, if not eliminated, that appeal. It remains to be seen if management can transcend its previous shortcomings and turn steady, possibly growing, revenues into profit.


On Nov 30 06:38 PM Mark Riddix wrote:

> By profit, I mean that I am expecting them to benefit from this recessionary
> environment. The 99 cents has seen an increase in comps, increasing
> revenue and has virtually no long term debt. The company's earnings
> were good except in Texas. The 99 cents store is closing all of its
> Texas locations because they are unprofitable. They incurred charges
> relating to the closing of the Texas locations(leasehold fees, impairment
> charges). Gross profit margins outside of Texas were 39.2% Comps
> rose almost 5% and retail sales rose 9%.

Retail Bright Spots This Holiday Season

Correction: Data in the previous post did originate with Morningstar, but via MarketWatch.com, not Yahoo! Finance.

Retail Bright Spots This Holiday Season

"99 Cents Store (NDN) ....will continue to profit as consumers downsize."

In the last three quarters, NDN has cumulative losses of $21.4 million before tax credits: $12.6 million in the Sept. quarter and $.7 million and $8.1 million in the two preceding quarters. After tax adjustments that works out to cumulative losses of $15.3 million (by quarter $9.4 million, $1.5 million and $4.4 million.(Data from Morningstar via Yahoo! Finance)

In what sense do you employ the phrase "continue to profit?"