brombonz's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/36716/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177537-supervalu-can-win-with-winn-dixie?source=feed#comment-801545 801545
Your misstatement certainly doesn't destroy your thesis. SVU doesn't have a full-line supermarket in WINN's territory, which is top-heavy (353 stores or more than two-thirds) in Florida.

More questionable is whether WINN can be further "turned around." I live in Florida, and Publix (not to mention Walmart) has left both WINN and the Delhaize-owned Sweet Bay (formerly Kash 'n Karry) in the dust. Many of the old Albertson stores have been snapped up by Publix, and Delhaize closed some Kash 'n Karrys in the process of becoming "Sweet Bay" so that in some neighborhoods Publix competes only with itself. The Kash 'n Karry in my former neighborhood became, after something like a two-year vacancy, a "Walmart Neighborhood Market."

Anecdotally, my own personal experience with WINN has been disappointing, mainly with personnel. My preferred full-line market is Sweet Bay. Publix's success remains a mystery to me.

Here's a link to the SVU Edgar store and distribution center list.

www.sec.gov/Archives/e...]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 10:35:08 -0500
Your misstatement certainly doesn't destroy your thesis. SVU doesn't have a full-line supermarket in WINN's territory, which is top-heavy (353 stores or more than two-thirds) in Florida.

More questionable is whether WINN can be further "turned around." I live in Florida, and Publix (not to mention Walmart) has left both WINN and the Delhaize-owned Sweet Bay (formerly Kash 'n Karry) in the dust. Many of the old Albertson stores have been snapped up by Publix, and Delhaize closed some Kash 'n Karrys in the process of becoming "Sweet Bay" so that in some neighborhoods Publix competes only with itself. The Kash 'n Karry in my former neighborhood became, after something like a two-year vacancy, a "Walmart Neighborhood Market."

Anecdotally, my own personal experience with WINN has been disappointing, mainly with personnel. My preferred full-line market is Sweet Bay. Publix's success remains a mystery to me.

Here's a link to the SVU Edgar store and distribution center list.

www.sec.gov/Archives/e...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155606-fred-s-could-be-50-undervalued-compared-to-peers?source=feed#comment-626446 626446 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 09:43:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141823-buffalo-wild-wings-growing-despite-a-recession?source=feed#comment-536985 536985 CMG) and the anomalous PEET with casual dining chains is not useful. However I appreciated the detailed and systematic approach.]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:57:37 -0400 CMG) and the anomalous PEET with casual dining chains is not useful. However I appreciated the detailed and systematic approach.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133890-hot-topics-won-t-stay-hot-for-long?source=feed#comment-485403 485403 Fri, 01 May 2009 09:51:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133890-hot-topics-won-t-stay-hot-for-long?source=feed#comment-485392 485392
Now there's an overstatement, when nearly all of apparel retail are showing "weak same store sales numbers." In themselves, in this retail environment, they indicate nothing about Torrid except that it is NOT one of the rare few (BKE, ARO and until the last couple of months, APP) which have been increasing SSS.

In fact, if I recall correctly, for at least one recent quarter Torrid's comps were superior to Hot Topic's.


]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 09:47:14 -0400
Now there's an overstatement, when nearly all of apparel retail are showing "weak same store sales numbers." In themselves, in this retail environment, they indicate nothing about Torrid except that it is NOT one of the rare few (BKE, ARO and until the last couple of months, APP) which have been increasing SSS.

In fact, if I recall correctly, for at least one recent quarter Torrid's comps were superior to Hot Topic's.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129261-why-i-like-tbs-international?source=feed#comment-450700 450700

"PRESS RELEASE
Excel Maritime Provides Charter Status Update and Announces Suspension of Dividend
Last update: 8:31 a.m. EST Feb. 17, 2009"



"DryShips Announces Significant Reductions in Its Capital Expenditures and Suspension
of the Dividend Effective for the Fourth Quarter 2008
Company Also Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2008 Results
ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwire - January 22, 2009) "]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 10:05:12 -0400

"PRESS RELEASE
Excel Maritime Provides Charter Status Update and Announces Suspension of Dividend
Last update: 8:31 a.m. EST Feb. 17, 2009"



"DryShips Announces Significant Reductions in Its Capital Expenditures and Suspension
of the Dividend Effective for the Fourth Quarter 2008
Company Also Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2008 Results
ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwire - January 22, 2009) "]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124070-a-stairway-to-retail-heaven-part-2?source=feed#comment-413367 413367
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

Also, perhaps I should explain that the BankAmericard was mailed to all or to selected BofA depositors. As I recall, it was activated by using it, and of course the card was not as variously useful as it has become.



On Mar 04 05:31 PM brombonz wrote:

> "The credit card wasn’t invented until 1967."
>
> Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from
> the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard"
> (then so titled) morphed into Visa.
>
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)
>
> No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your
> basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men
> walking or sick.
>
> In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore
> was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing?]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:41:39 -0500
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

Also, perhaps I should explain that the BankAmericard was mailed to all or to selected BofA depositors. As I recall, it was activated by using it, and of course the card was not as variously useful as it has become.



On Mar 04 05:31 PM brombonz wrote:

> "The credit card wasn’t invented until 1967."
>
> Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from
> the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard"
> (then so titled) morphed into Visa.
>
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)
>
> No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your
> basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men
> walking or sick.
>
> In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore
> was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124070-a-stairway-to-retail-heaven-part-2?source=feed#comment-413361 413361
Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard" (then so titled) morphed into Visa.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men walking or sick.

In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing? ]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:31:06 -0500
Wrong. I received, unsolicited, my first credit card in 1958 from the then San Francisco-based Bank of America. The "BankAmericard" (then so titled) morphed into Visa.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

No quarrel with your basic argument, although I did wonder at your basis for choosing whom to place at "heaven's door," or as dead men walking or sick.

In particular, it has looked to me from recent 10-Qs that A. C. Moore was not near-term endangered in the slightest. What am I missing? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119239-thoughts-on-the-retail-environment-in-january-2009?source=feed#comment-380859 380859

On Feb 09 09:40 AM brombonz wrote:

> You say, "Overall the results were fairy dismal with the exception
> of Wal-Mart (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), BJ's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Aeropostale (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Hot Topic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)."
>
>
> Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores)
> the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public
> companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named
> only two of them.
>
> In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's
> +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?
>
> Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a
> rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year
> comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions:
> the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic
> chain's positive 8.8%.
>
> On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on
> top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January
> 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but
> HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline
> in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis
> would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store
> sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether
> the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.
>
>
>
>
>
> ]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 09:46:37 -0500

On Feb 09 09:40 AM brombonz wrote:

> You say, "Overall the results were fairy dismal with the exception
> of Wal-Mart (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), BJ's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Aeropostale (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Hot Topic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)."
>
>
> Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores)
> the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public
> companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named
> only two of them.
>
> In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's
> +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?
>
> Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a
> rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year
> comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions:
> the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic
> chain's positive 8.8%.
>
> On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on
> top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January
> 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but
> HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline
> in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis
> would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store
> sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether
> the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.
>
>
>
>
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119239-thoughts-on-the-retail-environment-in-january-2009?source=feed#comment-380845 380845 WMT), BJ's (BJ), Aeropostale (ARO) and Hot Topic (HOTT)."

Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores) the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named only two of them.

In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?

Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions: the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic chain's positive 8.8%.

On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.





]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 09:40:50 -0500 WMT), BJ's (BJ), Aeropostale (ARO) and Hot Topic (HOTT)."

Among apparel retailers (specialty chains and department stores) the median January comp was an 11% decline. Only four of 27 public companies reporting for the month had positive numbers. You named only two of them.

In that context, would you consider specialty apparel retailers BKE's +14.7% January comp or APP's +2.0% "fairy [sic] dismal?

Also, your spotlight on HOTT may be too bright. It may be more a rebound situation than a merchandising "hot topic" (see two-year comps cited below), and you also neglect to break out its two divisions: the negative 6.2% from its Torrid stores were a drag on the Hot Topic chain's positive 8.8%.

On a two-year basis APP and BKE stand out, APP at +42.8% (+2.0% on top of +40.0%), BKE at +26.6% (its 14.7% following +19.1% for January 2008). ARO looks pretty good with a 16.2% two-year increase, but HOTT falls to +2.2% (+6.0% this year having to follow a 3.6% decline in January last year). HOTT's comp on a three-year or four-year basis would decline further, since January 2007 and January 2006 same store sales were also negative (-6.6% and -0.7% respectively). Whether the Hot Topic chain has gotten its "mojo" back remains to be seen.





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115358-retailers-on-the-extinction-list?source=feed#comment-360338 360338 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 19:30:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108879-reconsidering-penny-stocks?source=feed#comment-319817 319817
I follow specialty retail closely, especially apparel, and a number of companies have seen their shares drop below $1 or threateningly close: CHRS Charming Shoppes (Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherine's)), NWY (New York & Co.), CMRG (Casual Male XL, the only large chain for the "big and tall"), CWTR (Coldwater Creek), PSUN (Pacific Sunwear) $1.01, EBHI (Eddie Bauer) and FOH (Federick's of Hollywood) for example, in the apparel group and HMX and ZQK basically in wholesale.

Elsewhere, in addition to RAD, I see ACMR, BONT, GMTN, PIR, RVI, SPCHA/ SPCHB and TUES.

I don't mean to say these are or were big caps. Simply that lumping them in with the hundreds of "get rich quick" solicitations I and others receive every year (I just threw out a stack nearly four-feet high, abandoning my idea of finding an enterprising business reporter who would like to look into the several "middle man" companies that engineer these promotions) is kind of reckless.

Perhaps you don't have software programs that could sort other than by price. If so, so be it.

Appreciate your asking for input. ]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:42:22 -0500
I follow specialty retail closely, especially apparel, and a number of companies have seen their shares drop below $1 or threateningly close: CHRS Charming Shoppes (Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherine's)), NWY (New York & Co.), CMRG (Casual Male XL, the only large chain for the "big and tall"), CWTR (Coldwater Creek), PSUN (Pacific Sunwear) $1.01, EBHI (Eddie Bauer) and FOH (Federick's of Hollywood) for example, in the apparel group and HMX and ZQK basically in wholesale.

Elsewhere, in addition to RAD, I see ACMR, BONT, GMTN, PIR, RVI, SPCHA/ SPCHB and TUES.

I don't mean to say these are or were big caps. Simply that lumping them in with the hundreds of "get rich quick" solicitations I and others receive every year (I just threw out a stack nearly four-feet high, abandoning my idea of finding an enterprising business reporter who would like to look into the several "middle man" companies that engineer these promotions) is kind of reckless.

Perhaps you don't have software programs that could sort other than by price. If so, so be it.

Appreciate your asking for input. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108398-retail-bright-spots-this-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-319769 319769 Explaining the word "profit" is a snap. But, after all, isn't it what remains after deducting expenses, including those resulting from bad decisions and/or poor execution?


On Dec 03 10:07 AM brombonz wrote:

> I'm aware of the Texas situation. It has not been the only problem.
> I've followed the company since its IPO. It would be correct to say
> it is positioned properly to benefit from economic bad times. It
> is another thing to say management can turn that into profit, and
> increasing profit at that. I don't know that they have overcome their
> warehouse/distribution problems. I lived in L.A. for 35 years and
> am quite familiar with the stores. I last shopped there in the summer
> of 2006 while vacationing from my current home in Florida. I've been
> a shareowner at various times, as recently as earlier this year.
> Since I liked the stores (all the locations I've been familiar with,
> have been jammed with shoppers), the great appeal to me had been
> the exceedingly small store base compared with DLTR, FDO and the
> former DG, and the potential for national expansion. The failure
> in TX has lessened, if not eliminated, that appeal. It remains to
> be seen if management can transcend its previous shortcomings and
> turn steady, possibly growing, revenues into profit.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:12:08 -0500 Explaining the word "profit" is a snap. But, after all, isn't it what remains after deducting expenses, including those resulting from bad decisions and/or poor execution?


On Dec 03 10:07 AM brombonz wrote:

> I'm aware of the Texas situation. It has not been the only problem.
> I've followed the company since its IPO. It would be correct to say
> it is positioned properly to benefit from economic bad times. It
> is another thing to say management can turn that into profit, and
> increasing profit at that. I don't know that they have overcome their
> warehouse/distribution problems. I lived in L.A. for 35 years and
> am quite familiar with the stores. I last shopped there in the summer
> of 2006 while vacationing from my current home in Florida. I've been
> a shareowner at various times, as recently as earlier this year.
> Since I liked the stores (all the locations I've been familiar with,
> have been jammed with shoppers), the great appeal to me had been
> the exceedingly small store base compared with DLTR, FDO and the
> former DG, and the potential for national expansion. The failure
> in TX has lessened, if not eliminated, that appeal. It remains to
> be seen if management can transcend its previous shortcomings and
> turn steady, possibly growing, revenues into profit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108398-retail-bright-spots-this-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-319761 319761

On Nov 30 06:38 PM Mark Riddix wrote:

> By profit, I mean that I am expecting them to benefit from this recessionary
> environment. The 99 cents has seen an increase in comps, increasing
> revenue and has virtually no long term debt. The company's earnings
> were good except in Texas. The 99 cents store is closing all of its
> Texas locations because they are unprofitable. They incurred charges
> relating to the closing of the Texas locations(leasehold fees, impairment
> charges). Gross profit margins outside of Texas were 39.2% Comps
> rose almost 5% and retail sales rose 9%.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:07:13 -0500

On Nov 30 06:38 PM Mark Riddix wrote:

> By profit, I mean that I am expecting them to benefit from this recessionary
> environment. The 99 cents has seen an increase in comps, increasing
> revenue and has virtually no long term debt. The company's earnings
> were good except in Texas. The 99 cents store is closing all of its
> Texas locations because they are unprofitable. They incurred charges
> relating to the closing of the Texas locations(leasehold fees, impairment
> charges). Gross profit margins outside of Texas were 39.2% Comps
> rose almost 5% and retail sales rose 9%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108398-retail-bright-spots-this-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-317656 317656 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 14:55:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108398-retail-bright-spots-this-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-317644 317644 NDN) ....will continue to profit as consumers downsize."

In the last three quarters, NDN has cumulative losses of $21.4 million before tax credits: $12.6 million in the Sept. quarter and $.7 million and $8.1 million in the two preceding quarters. After tax adjustments that works out to cumulative losses of $15.3 million (by quarter $9.4 million, $1.5 million and $4.4 million.(Data from Morningstar via Yahoo! Finance)

In what sense do you employ the phrase "continue to profit?"]]> Sun, 30 Nov 2008 14:33:34 -0500 NDN) ....will continue to profit as consumers downsize."

In the last three quarters, NDN has cumulative losses of $21.4 million before tax credits: $12.6 million in the Sept. quarter and $.7 million and $8.1 million in the two preceding quarters. After tax adjustments that works out to cumulative losses of $15.3 million (by quarter $9.4 million, $1.5 million and $4.4 million.(Data from Morningstar via Yahoo! Finance)

In what sense do you employ the phrase "continue to profit?"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108216-a-look-at-buckle-fundamentals-don-t-matter-anymore?source=feed#comment-316335 316335
The company hasn't filed its 10-Q for the third quarter, but for the 2Q it said its sales per square foot were up 25.8% for the first half. Annual sales per square foot bottomed out at $274 in 2002 and 2003 after rising from $225 in 1994 to $344 in 2003. Since 2003 they've been climbing again,to $335 last year, and unless the fourth quarter this year is a bomb, should be up again. Is this a repeat of that previous cycle, and so a likely top in productivity for the time being?

I used only a five-year span in the previous comment to illustrate the company's ragged longterm comp performance. I could have used seven years.
Here's what that (1999-2006) looks like, in sequence (all %s): +0.9, -6.0, -6.2, -0.5, +1.1, +6.3, +1.4 and 0.0. Not a barn burner.

So, flash in the pan? Or undervalued top performer?




]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:32:31 -0500
The company hasn't filed its 10-Q for the third quarter, but for the 2Q it said its sales per square foot were up 25.8% for the first half. Annual sales per square foot bottomed out at $274 in 2002 and 2003 after rising from $225 in 1994 to $344 in 2003. Since 2003 they've been climbing again,to $335 last year, and unless the fourth quarter this year is a bomb, should be up again. Is this a repeat of that previous cycle, and so a likely top in productivity for the time being?

I used only a five-year span in the previous comment to illustrate the company's ragged longterm comp performance. I could have used seven years.
Here's what that (1999-2006) looks like, in sequence (all %s): +0.9, -6.0, -6.2, -0.5, +1.1, +6.3, +1.4 and 0.0. Not a barn burner.

So, flash in the pan? Or undervalued top performer?




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108216-a-look-at-buckle-fundamentals-don-t-matter-anymore?source=feed#comment-316293 316293
Maybe they've found some magic ingredients. Since 2002 they've roughly tripled the proportion of sales that is private label, and net profit margin, which seemed confined to an 8-10% range for years, climbed to 12.1% last year, and for the first nine months this year was up 1.8 points to 13.0% (excluding the write down for auction related securities).

The last two months its SSS have trended down, although still alternating with APP for best in apparel retail, from +22.4% to +19.7% to +14.5%. On the favorable side, they've managed this against prior year matching comps of +16.7%, +10.9% and +14.9%. In the next three months they face +18.2%, +18.7% and +19.1% from last year.

All told, I like BKE at these prices, although I don't see my way clear to buy it, considering all the other alternatives in the stock universe.

Just wanted to give my version of a "Guide to the Perplexed." ]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 12:29:31 -0500
Maybe they've found some magic ingredients. Since 2002 they've roughly tripled the proportion of sales that is private label, and net profit margin, which seemed confined to an 8-10% range for years, climbed to 12.1% last year, and for the first nine months this year was up 1.8 points to 13.0% (excluding the write down for auction related securities).

The last two months its SSS have trended down, although still alternating with APP for best in apparel retail, from +22.4% to +19.7% to +14.5%. On the favorable side, they've managed this against prior year matching comps of +16.7%, +10.9% and +14.9%. In the next three months they face +18.2%, +18.7% and +19.1% from last year.

All told, I like BKE at these prices, although I don't see my way clear to buy it, considering all the other alternatives in the stock universe.

Just wanted to give my version of a "Guide to the Perplexed." ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104655-the-few-retail-standouts?source=feed#comment-300878 300878
Hmmm. You're highly selective. Other "standouts" (assuming your standard is +4.0% or more) include APP +22.0%, BKE +14.5%, HOTT +8.3%, MWRK +6.0% and CTR +4.0%. In addition, on Thursday URBN reported its quarterly comp, +10.0%, with its Urban Retail division up 17.0% and the small Free People division up 4.0% (Anthropologie, at +2.0% was the drag on the corporate number).

APP has turned in a double digit comp every month since it made its first report in March (as well for the comparable month of the previous year), and for six consecutive quarters. BKE has turned in consecutive monthly double-digit comps since August 2007, preceded by similar results in March and June 2007. URBN, which reports quarterly, has had four consecutive double-digt quarters.

]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 18:04:12 -0500
Hmmm. You're highly selective. Other "standouts" (assuming your standard is +4.0% or more) include APP +22.0%, BKE +14.5%, HOTT +8.3%, MWRK +6.0% and CTR +4.0%. In addition, on Thursday URBN reported its quarterly comp, +10.0%, with its Urban Retail division up 17.0% and the small Free People division up 4.0% (Anthropologie, at +2.0% was the drag on the corporate number).

APP has turned in a double digit comp every month since it made its first report in March (as well for the comparable month of the previous year), and for six consecutive quarters. BKE has turned in consecutive monthly double-digit comps since August 2007, preceded by similar results in March and June 2007. URBN, which reports quarterly, has had four consecutive double-digt quarters.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90508-five-retailers-for-falling-gas-prices?source=feed#comment-231354 231354
I've also been in DKS profitably, but I have to say that shopping in their stores (I've been only in an Indianapolis and a Tampa store) has been a despicable experience. Signage and helpful employees are in notable absence. I've resigned myself to staying with The Sports Authority, which is only marginally better, and the experience has been a damper on new enthusiasn for the stock.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 13:54:33 -0400
I've also been in DKS profitably, but I have to say that shopping in their stores (I've been only in an Indianapolis and a Tampa store) has been a despicable experience. Signage and helpful employees are in notable absence. I've resigned myself to staying with The Sports Authority, which is only marginally better, and the experience has been a damper on new enthusiasn for the stock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89257-time-to-start-nibbling-at-restaurants?source=feed#comment-226904 226904
I'm just guessing that by "full-service" you mean to exclude quick-service, buffet, cafeteria and take-out, leaving "casual service."

So this might suggest the inclusion of BUCA, BWLD, CASA, DAVE, DENN, ELXS (but you get sewage equipment, which isn't necessarily appetizing, in the bargain), GCFB, GRIL, JAX, MRT, MSSR, RUTH, or SHLL. In addition ARKR operates both casual and quick service restaurants.]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 19:42:09 -0400
I'm just guessing that by "full-service" you mean to exclude quick-service, buffet, cafeteria and take-out, leaving "casual service."

So this might suggest the inclusion of BUCA, BWLD, CASA, DAVE, DENN, ELXS (but you get sewage equipment, which isn't necessarily appetizing, in the bargain), GCFB, GRIL, JAX, MRT, MSSR, RUTH, or SHLL. In addition ARKR operates both casual and quick service restaurants.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78936-up-coldwater-creek-without-a-paddle?source=feed#comment-175160 175160 Wed, 28 May 2008 10:12:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72321-are-airline-stocks-cheap-enough-now?source=feed#comment-151569 151569
Wrong. Buffett made a profit on his famous (or infamous) investment in US Air, though he did berate himself for making that investment in the first place. See the excerpt below from an April 3, 2000 Motley Fool article by value fund manager Whitney Tilson.







US Airways Case Study

"When Richard Branson, the wealthy owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways, was asked how to become a millionaire, he had a quick answer: 'There's really nothing to it. Start as a billionaire and then buy an airline.'" -- Warren Buffett's 1996 annual letter.

Tiger owns 23% of US Airway's shares, representing Robertson's largest position by far. To my knowledge, this is the only stock in Robertson's current portfolio that Buffett has ever owned (in 1989, he bought $358 million of USAir preferred stock). Here is what Buffett wrote about this investment in various annual letters:

"There is no tougher job in corporate America than running an airline: Despite the huge amounts of equity capital that have been injected into it, the industry, in aggregate, has posted a net loss since its birth after Kitty Hawk." -- 1991 annual letter.

"A competitively-beset business such as USAir requires far more managerial skill than does a business with fine economics. Unfortunately, though, the near-term reward for skill in the airline business is simply survival, not prosperity." -- 1992 annual letter.

"Mistakes occur at the time of decision. We can only make our mistake-du-jour award, however, when the foolishness of the decision become obvious. By this measure, 1994 was a vintage year with keen competition for the gold medal. Top honors go to a mistake I made five years ago that fully ripened in 1994: Our $358 million purchase of USAir preferred stock, on which the dividend was suspended in September. In the 1990 Annual Report I correctly described this deal as an 'unforced error,' meaning that I was neither pushed into the investment nor misled by anyone when making it. Rather, this was a case of sloppy analysis, a lapse that may have been caused by the fact that we were buying a senior security or by hubris. Whatever the reason, the mistake was large." -- 1994 annual letter.

Ironically, as Buffett was writing those words in early 1995, USAir was beginning a remarkable rise from the ashes. From its low in late 1994 to its peak in mid-1998, the stock rose more than 2,000%, which allowed Buffett to exit his investment profitably in 1997.
]]> Wed, 16 Apr 2008 09:26:01 -0400
Wrong. Buffett made a profit on his famous (or infamous) investment in US Air, though he did berate himself for making that investment in the first place. See the excerpt below from an April 3, 2000 Motley Fool article by value fund manager Whitney Tilson.







US Airways Case Study

"When Richard Branson, the wealthy owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways, was asked how to become a millionaire, he had a quick answer: 'There's really nothing to it. Start as a billionaire and then buy an airline.'" -- Warren Buffett's 1996 annual letter.

Tiger owns 23% of US Airway's shares, representing Robertson's largest position by far. To my knowledge, this is the only stock in Robertson's current portfolio that Buffett has ever owned (in 1989, he bought $358 million of USAir preferred stock). Here is what Buffett wrote about this investment in various annual letters:

"There is no tougher job in corporate America than running an airline: Despite the huge amounts of equity capital that have been injected into it, the industry, in aggregate, has posted a net loss since its birth after Kitty Hawk." -- 1991 annual letter.

"A competitively-beset business such as USAir requires far more managerial skill than does a business with fine economics. Unfortunately, though, the near-term reward for skill in the airline business is simply survival, not prosperity." -- 1992 annual letter.

"Mistakes occur at the time of decision. We can only make our mistake-du-jour award, however, when the foolishness of the decision become obvious. By this measure, 1994 was a vintage year with keen competition for the gold medal. Top honors go to a mistake I made five years ago that fully ripened in 1994: Our $358 million purchase of USAir preferred stock, on which the dividend was suspended in September. In the 1990 Annual Report I correctly described this deal as an 'unforced error,' meaning that I was neither pushed into the investment nor misled by anyone when making it. Rather, this was a case of sloppy analysis, a lapse that may have been caused by the fact that we were buying a senior security or by hubris. Whatever the reason, the mistake was large." -- 1994 annual letter.

Ironically, as Buffett was writing those words in early 1995, USAir was beginning a remarkable rise from the ashes. From its low in late 1994 to its peak in mid-1998, the stock rose more than 2,000%, which allowed Buffett to exit his investment profitably in 1997.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72020-american-eagle-outfitters-wings-may-be-falling-off?source=feed#comment-149444 149444
The parent chain is essentially maxed out domestically. How much promise there might be for it overseas is a question scarcely raised, let alone argued. M+O doesn't yet show much (and ANF's lack of success with its Ruehl stores, aimed at the same demographic, isn't encouraging). I visited my first M+O store last month, at the Mall of America, and was startled by stratospheric price points -- any number of triple-digit items, including a tee-shirt (okay, maybe a "pullover" at $148 (if I remember correctly). It doesn't seem the right time for it, as now configured, really to take off. Their imitation of ANF's kids division is still pie in the sky; ANF has had a checkered history with "abercrombie" They shuttered stores in 2004 and 2005 (dropping from 175 to 161) as returns had become disappointing, only to add 17 in 2006 and 22 last year, encouraged by a string of positive double digit comps. The times being what they are, its sales have gone sour again.

It seems to me the only really imminent prospective payoff for AEO is the aerie concept, but whether the tail can propel the whole donkey is another question.]]> Sat, 12 Apr 2008 10:26:45 -0400
The parent chain is essentially maxed out domestically. How much promise there might be for it overseas is a question scarcely raised, let alone argued. M+O doesn't yet show much (and ANF's lack of success with its Ruehl stores, aimed at the same demographic, isn't encouraging). I visited my first M+O store last month, at the Mall of America, and was startled by stratospheric price points -- any number of triple-digit items, including a tee-shirt (okay, maybe a "pullover" at $148 (if I remember correctly). It doesn't seem the right time for it, as now configured, really to take off. Their imitation of ANF's kids division is still pie in the sky; ANF has had a checkered history with "abercrombie" They shuttered stores in 2004 and 2005 (dropping from 175 to 161) as returns had become disappointing, only to add 17 in 2006 and 22 last year, encouraged by a string of positive double digit comps. The times being what they are, its sales have gone sour again.

It seems to me the only really imminent prospective payoff for AEO is the aerie concept, but whether the tail can propel the whole donkey is another question.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71360-sex-may-sell-but-is-it-profitable?source=feed#comment-146426 146426
I've bought RICK at $3, $5, $8 and $20.

Another public company is Private Media (PRVT).]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:04:03 -0400
I've bought RICK at $3, $5, $8 and $20.

Another public company is Private Media (PRVT).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46557-august-same-store-sales-roundup?source=feed#comment-95457 95457
Isn't it obvious that what matters is the change from the comparable period (or the monthly number as part of a pattern of monthly numbers for that company) or how the sales report in itself or as part of a pattern compares to that of peers, not even beginning to consider the relative impact of markdowns on the sales numbers and their implications for earnings, not what analysts estimate, with something like a 15% accuracy record.

It is mindboggling that reviews of analyst ratings (most based on predicted earnings changes) over the last several years have found
that the most rewarding buys are those earmarked "sell" by the analysts, the net best returns come from recommended "holds," and the worst from recommended "buys."

This same skill when applied to same store sales finds that the list above comes close enough to the reported comp to be considered accurate in predicting the number (whatever that number is worth in isolation) for by my reckoning six (JWN, TJX, LTD, BJ, FDO and FRED), or 15%, of the 40 companies for which estimates were made.

I've followed specialty retail, especially apparel, sporting goods and variety, closely for the last nine years, and since whenever this "estimating" disease took hold this kind of whistling-oin-the-wind inaccuracy has been the norm.

I just don't get it.

But this reference to variation from a "consensus" estimate is now a virtually standard reference in the lead of earnings or comp-sales related news stories throughout the financial media.

And it is meaningless in relation to a company's prospects.

To me it seems to be merely a fast shuffle creating more trading commissions and profits for brokers and trading firms.]]> Fri, 07 Sep 2007 15:19:24 -0400
Isn't it obvious that what matters is the change from the comparable period (or the monthly number as part of a pattern of monthly numbers for that company) or how the sales report in itself or as part of a pattern compares to that of peers, not even beginning to consider the relative impact of markdowns on the sales numbers and their implications for earnings, not what analysts estimate, with something like a 15% accuracy record.

It is mindboggling that reviews of analyst ratings (most based on predicted earnings changes) over the last several years have found
that the most rewarding buys are those earmarked "sell" by the analysts, the net best returns come from recommended "holds," and the worst from recommended "buys."

This same skill when applied to same store sales finds that the list above comes close enough to the reported comp to be considered accurate in predicting the number (whatever that number is worth in isolation) for by my reckoning six (JWN, TJX, LTD, BJ, FDO and FRED), or 15%, of the 40 companies for which estimates were made.

I've followed specialty retail, especially apparel, sporting goods and variety, closely for the last nine years, and since whenever this "estimating" disease took hold this kind of whistling-oin-the-wind inaccuracy has been the norm.

I just don't get it.

But this reference to variation from a "consensus" estimate is now a virtually standard reference in the lead of earnings or comp-sales related news stories throughout the financial media.

And it is meaningless in relation to a company's prospects.

To me it seems to be merely a fast shuffle creating more trading commissions and profits for brokers and trading firms.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38175-jos-a-bank-s-marketing-strategy-cheapens-brand?source=feed#comment-88456 88456
On the face of it,my best interpretation is that it might be an attempt to seduce a more "downscale" customer into a luxury or semi-luxury environment, where he thinks he's getting a "steal," no matter how neverending the Sale!Sale!Sale! advertising pitch.

But even that interpretation doesn't account for the TV ad placements on venues such as MSNBC talk shows, which are hardly "downscale." (If the ads are on less upscale commercial broadcast TV, I wouldn't know). Why approach a relatively sophisticated viwer wirh a "Hey, Rube" approach?

It's a "puzzlement."

I have to say that CEO Wildrick, in his earlier days at the helm, took a similarly promotional attitude toward the stock, which had me wary for quite a while. Nonetheless he has delivered on the promised store expansion and profit growth, and along with it muted his style. But "carnival" may still be in his bones.]]> Wed, 13 Jun 2007 11:40:42 -0400
On the face of it,my best interpretation is that it might be an attempt to seduce a more "downscale" customer into a luxury or semi-luxury environment, where he thinks he's getting a "steal," no matter how neverending the Sale!Sale!Sale! advertising pitch.

But even that interpretation doesn't account for the TV ad placements on venues such as MSNBC talk shows, which are hardly "downscale." (If the ads are on less upscale commercial broadcast TV, I wouldn't know). Why approach a relatively sophisticated viwer wirh a "Hey, Rube" approach?

It's a "puzzlement."

I have to say that CEO Wildrick, in his earlier days at the helm, took a similarly promotional attitude toward the stock, which had me wary for quite a while. Nonetheless he has delivered on the promised store expansion and profit growth, and along with it muted his style. But "carnival" may still be in his bones.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38183-h-m-the-ikea-of-retail-apparel-is-a-hit-with-u-s-consumers?source=feed#comment-88451 88451

(1) Name me ONE specialty apparel retailer that runs its own factories. You imply that this is a special attribute of H&M.

(2) Your recommendation lacks any valuation or financial efficency metrics (in other words, essentially any substance).

(3) You say H&M has "Fashionable clothes, great quality, low prices." While I'm not truly up to date, historically H&M has had a poor reputation for quality (personally I had the experience of buying a men's belt that came apart after three wearings). I grant you they have fashion and low prices.

Your post would benefit by rising above the level of gossip.]]> Wed, 13 Jun 2007 11:02:45 -0400

(1) Name me ONE specialty apparel retailer that runs its own factories. You imply that this is a special attribute of H&M.

(2) Your recommendation lacks any valuation or financial efficency metrics (in other words, essentially any substance).

(3) You say H&M has "Fashionable clothes, great quality, low prices." While I'm not truly up to date, historically H&M has had a poor reputation for quality (personally I had the experience of buying a men's belt that came apart after three wearings). I grant you they have fashion and low prices.

Your post would benefit by rising above the level of gossip.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34820-heelys-tanks-on-dilution-concerns?source=feed#comment-85704 85704
If these shares are as described, they are SECONDARY shares, already outstanding. There will simply be a transfer of ownership. An indication of weakness based on insider selling? Very likely, allthough I've seen this apparent signal err: prime example -- one of the three founding Marciano brothers of Guess?, Inc., filed a shelf offering to sell ALL of his shares when the stock price was about $2 (adjusted for a 2:1 split). The stock never looked back and so far has topped out over $43 . One difference, GES was coming off long-term poor performance that turned out to be a bottom.

My idea of "Seeking Alpha" contributors is that they are at least a little more sophisticated than this.]]> Tue, 08 May 2007 08:47:48 -0400
If these shares are as described, they are SECONDARY shares, already outstanding. There will simply be a transfer of ownership. An indication of weakness based on insider selling? Very likely, allthough I've seen this apparent signal err: prime example -- one of the three founding Marciano brothers of Guess?, Inc., filed a shelf offering to sell ALL of his shares when the stock price was about $2 (adjusted for a 2:1 split). The stock never looked back and so far has topped out over $43 . One difference, GES was coming off long-term poor performance that turned out to be a bottom.

My idea of "Seeking Alpha" contributors is that they are at least a little more sophisticated than this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/15936-bad-year-for-chico-s-but-worth-holding-on-to-the-stock?source=feed#comment-79365 79365 Fri, 22 Dec 2006 20:16:42 -0500