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Jasper M

Jasper M
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  • Don't Mistake Your Silver for Gold, Central Banks Don't [View article]
    Note your assumptions. "If gold rises"
    Further, as to your assertion that "her kid's coming along for thee ride", I gather you have never heard of military academies? Stepfathers are rather fond of them, in some of the places I have lived.
    May 19, 2011. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Thomas Stolper renews his call for dollar weakness, raising his estimate for the euro to $1.55 within a year. Until manufacturing picks up and the trade deficit comes more into balance, the path for the greenback will be lower. The main risk to his forecast: "asset weakness," i.e. the "risk off" trade would give the dollar a powerful bid.  [View news story]
    That "main risk" is a Sure Thing.
    May 18, 2011. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Mistake Your Silver for Gold, Central Banks Don't [View article]
    All too true. But too late for the typical herd followers.
    May 17, 2011. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • James Altucher: "Why I would rather shoot myself in the head than own a home." For starters, "Leveraging up 400% in an illiquid investment with no diversification is a scary concept to me and should be to any rational person."  [View news story]
    Sounds like we have reached the "Point of Recognition" for real estate.
    May 16, 2011. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.K., wanting to unload its massive stakes in RBS and Lloyd's (LYG), considers handing £1K of stock to each taxpayer. Other than the obvious political benefit, the move would allow the government to cut its holdings without driving share prices down with a massive 'sell' order.  [View news story]
    Rrrriight . . . cause NONE of those strapped English taxpayers would want to turn right around and SELL those pigs!
    Instead of the shock of one huge sell order (with some chance of orderly, prepared purchases by large institutions), you will get an endless rain of supply for these stocks. It'll be like the housing market . . .
    May 16, 2011. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Deutsche Bank Do Them Wrong? [View article]
    if This Author is going to be moved to write this much every time someone on Zero Hedge holds forth about some subject about which they know little, then I fear This Author is going to be be very, very busy.
    The lowering of the barriers to publication which the internet performs so powerfully also removes the power of editors. And that is not always a good thing.
    May 15, 2011. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing in Overshoot Mode: Why Now Is the Time to Buy [View article]
    1) Losing the house you were essentially renting from the bank does not necessarily "de-house" you (the way a bomb de-houses unfortunates in conflict zones) – you just go back to renting. The house is still there for them or someone else.

    2) . . . Which brings me to my problem with your analysis: Given the amount of inventory overhang, plus shadow inventory (of homes that banks are either failing to pursue foreclosure on, or doing so veeery slowly), Plus the additional homes certain to fall into those categories due to mortgage reset horizons (see Credit Suisse info – we are exiting a trough just now, only going to get worse), there would seem to be zero chance of housing maintaining even current valuations.
    . . . and that's assuming no more macro-economic upsets. Which is not the most solid bet.
    May 15, 2011. 09:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominique Strauss-Kahn's lawyer says his client denies all the sex-assault charges against him, but the arrest of the IMF chief casts a shadow on this week's talks about Greece's new bailout. Strauss-Kahn was to have met Angela Merkel today and join Euro FinMins tomorrow in Brussels. (previous)  [View news story]
    I see this as exploring a new strategy for dealing with debtor nations – if they only rape residents of said nations One at a Time, is that an improvement?
    May 15, 2011. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death of Capitalism Redux [View article]
    Those who produce have always been parasitized by those who do not. It happens more in relatively prosperous times, as there is (or at leas is perceived to be) more excess to go around, and more tolerance for activities that appear profitable, even if questionable, The questions just don't get asked, and the activities become part of of the status quo.
    And then, when the hard times inevitably follow (arguably sped on by these same practices), the trend reverses, tolerance vanishes, and we get witch hunts over what was before business as usual. Some well deserved, but witch hunts none the less.
    May 12, 2011. 02:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lithium-Ion Batteries Are Like Hippos in Pink Tutus [View article]
    Try reading some books. "Conquer the Crash", for one.
    You mentioned Currency debasement", but seem not to realize, in this era of electronic debasement, that the money created is all credit, That means its creation generates an equal future claim on Actual currency (which is, in fact, the only source of its value). When the economy becomes saturated with credit (= no actual productive outlets for the 'new money'), the excess credit can never be repaid . . . which means its value will Drop. And that is a reduction of money supply. = Deflation.
    Massive defaults will bring deflation. Nothing can stop it now. It's a falling safe.
    May 11, 2011. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale of Two Lies: Oil and Silver [View article]
    Dude, that's just who they are. NO amount of contrary reasoning will do anything but get them to label the messenger as a shill for (insert alleged manipulators).
    These are the sort that think ANY time the market doesn't go the way They think it should, Must be the work of nefarious powers.
    May 10, 2011. 09:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lithium-Ion Batteries Are Like Hippos in Pink Tutus [View article]
    It occurs to me that, in the event of worldwide deflation severely adjusting pricing of raw materials and labor, the various components might not all adjust at the same rate (those with excess credit/subsidies 'built in' will drop further), and that might change relative competitiveness of various battery designs.
    STILL not going to bet on batts over hydrocarbons (as that's pure energy density), but might upend a lot of expectations Within the storage field.
    May 10, 2011. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying to save their political hides, German politicians are talking tough, but even something as benign as a voluntary restructuring would be disastrous for all, says Richard Barley. It's time for German politicians to start laying the groundwork for another contribution to Athens.  [View news story]
    Oh, Jeez H. Christmas, WHAT possible good would "another contribution to Athens" do?! This is the epitome of "throwing good money after bad".
    Clearly, more of the thinking that recent events were some sort of anomaly, rather than the logical consequences of bad economic science.

    What it Is tome for, nay, well Past time, is recognition that the status quo Can Not be saved.
    May 9, 2011. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Prices Could Soon Be at $64 [View article]
    Yet another heretical soul, nailing theses to the door of SA.
    Keep up the good work!
    May 9, 2011. 03:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Might Gold Mania Look Like When It Arrives? [View article]
    Aqua, there is another way that ratio can be attained.

    As for the article, note the assumptions. Manias do not all top out at the same valuations. And as this run up is just an echo of a previous blow off, one can reasonably expect divergences in performance.
    May 8, 2011. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment