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Jasper M
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Retired, 48, been making my own financial decision since I was 17. Every day, for the rest of my life, I will be a recovering Merrill Lynch customer. Proudest Financial Moments: Personal Best return on equity: 20/1, Leap Puts on Citi & GE, closed in late 2008 Personal best adjusted for... More
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  • Predictions, old and new
     That time of year again. Let's see how I did.

    Frim  my predictions for 2011:
        "$US up. A Lot."
    No, but getting there.
       "Euro down. A Lot ." 
    Yes, sort of. Clearly still has Way farther to go.

        "Hard leg down in stocks, starting soon."
    Nope.
       "As in 2008, the financials will bear the initial brunt."
    They're actually getting killed already, so I'll call that part correct.
        "We can expect to see the first stages of the death of most of the larger banks by the end of 2011."
    Yup.
        "Holiday inflation will recede rapidly."
    Sort of. But it's back now.
        "Collapsing markets for stocks and bonds will erase 2 trillion in money supply next year, far outpacing what the Fed can conjure."
    While marlets have not dropped as far as I thought they would by now, I recently read the loss is already over $6 Trillion. So… yeah. 
        "Stocks will end the year at least approaching the 2008 low."
    Nope.

         "Here's one that's out on a limb: I think gold and silver stop here."
    Nope, and no. Gold went to new highs, silver went out and back.
        "I think oil tops here, too."
    Nope.

        "Munis down. A Lot."
    Nope, not yet.
       "Real estate, housing and commercial, continues to die."
    Yes, though not near as dramatically as I expected.
         International diversification will be shown to be mostly useless, as deflation sucks cash, and thus the profit, out of every economy on earth.
    Yes.
        "One possible exception: India."
    Still up in the air.
        "China, in particular, hits a wall. And bursts into flames."
    It's taken All Year, but the recent default of the larger provincial issuers is the beggining of this, in earnest.
       I predict the Calafia Beach Pundit will be optimistic. And very, very funny (in a guilty, "don't make fun of the retard" sort of way). 
    Yes!
       I predict Bruce Krasting (bless his heart) will get all excited about something he hasn't thought all the way through. 
    Yes.

    So, summing up, my crystal ball seems to have been ccloudy; mostly misses and sortas.

         So, what about 2012?
       Well, everything seems to be pretty much as it was, just held in check by government and proxy interventions that are clearly nearing exhaustion. So most of these I will just reiterate.
    $US up. I will say 91 on Dollar Index.
    Euro down.
    Stocks down.
    Financials worse than most.
    Downside target reset to 4000 on the DJIA, near the end of the year.
    Gold down.
    Silver down more.
    Oil down (the Iranians can't keep this up forever… ironically, because they don't have enough fuel [*snicker*])
    Munipocalypse.
    Real estate disaster.
    No safe place overseas.
    India . . . um, not so sure. What the heck, I'll stay long (I am IRL).
    (Economic) death of China.
    CPB funny.
    BK excited.


    Dec 27 10:25 PM | Link | Comment!
  • What I am thankful for
       The fashion, this time of year, is to declare to someone what we are thankful for. 
       I despise most such fashions, But I haven't posted in a While, so I will use the excuse.

       First and foremost, I am thankful for the Bulls. Especially the ones that sold me those Netflix puts. YOW!
        I am thankful for the unbelievable levels of denial within the larger US financial companies.
        I am thankful for each and every participant of the Eurofarce. There are too many to name – you know who you are. Seriously, it's like an undead clown show. Zombies with big red noses, and a calliope in the background.
       I am thankful for Chinese government, for preparing their own apocalypse so diligently. You go, guys!
      
       I am thankful to the movers and shakers within the Republican Party, for working So HARD to ensure that Nobody with a Clue as to how to deal with the current crisis gets anywhere Near their party's nomination. Seriously, if Ron Paul or Gary Johnson got nominated, the bear-party would end 4 years ahead of time, and we can't have that! 
       I am thankful to the Democrats for so thoroughly discrediting nearly ever single part of their agenda, in just one presidential term. I will admit that I am not terrible comfortable with the prospect of the attendant return to fashion of open racism, but I suppose I can adapt.
       I am thankful I have no one pestering me to travel long distances, on days the national infrastructure is packed well past capacity, to argue with them over a table full of food.

      In sum, like all the world's comedians, I am thankful for the tremendous volume of humans stupidity that preceding generations so carefully fostered, that it might bloom to its current crowning glory . . . all in time for me to make money off of it. I… I think there's something in my eye…

       
       

    Nov 25 3:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • An even Perfect-er Storm?
       I have a friend who fequently contacts me to ask about possible finnacial consequences of this or that bit of news. The recent debt limit debate was one example. I advised him "Don't trade the Event; trade the Trend".
        And I believe that. Trends are inherently more durable than events, and easier to predict.

       I should have aid a trifle more attention to my own advice last week. Knowig the trend was down, and seeing a quadrafecta of implicitely terrible news, I assumed 'The Big One', the crash that validates every uber-bear's most fevered dreams, was imminent.
       Nope.
       And if it didn't happen then, an uncharitable bull might ask, When could it? HOW could the news get worse?
        Well, um . . .

        Acknowledgement of failure of talks re second Greek bailout; IMF official says Greek "hard default certain" by next March.
         Fannie and Freddie overseer sues every big bank that moves (except Uncle Warren's, of course). Including numerous death-row patients on both sides of the Atantic.
        Some genius from the "Justice" department tres to blackmail Switzerland to cough up data the US Feds would already have, only the US Senate is sitting on the Treaty. GOOD luck with that.
        And so, so much more.
        All just before a long weekend in the US.


        I knew the trend was down, Not just in this or that market, but (much more importantly) in human mood. Bad news will make itself now, and be heeded, in innumerable, unpredictable ways, symptoms of this change in expectation. No point in trying to predict the details, Trade the trend – it's a Big one, with Serious legs.

        That said, I am probably going to close a few short positions tomorrow afternoon. No sense being greedy.
    Sep 06 1:13 AM | Link | Comment!
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