ritholtz

Big Picture Points Out 50% Retracement

That was off of the July 15 lows, which also presented a trading opportunity (see this: finance.yahoo.com/tech...? )

But it did not hit the 50% retracement line of the 2002-07 cyclical bull -- this drop did.

Job Growth? This Economy Is Hotter Than I Thought

I like to look beyond the headline and take apart the actual underlying data. You can call it "lawyering" -- misleading -- thought that statement may be; I prefer to call it data analysis . . .

As I have said many many times, any single report doesn't matter, the overall trend does:

- In 2006 was 226,000 new jobs created per month
- In 2007, that number fell to 122,000;
- In Q3 2007, that number fell to 74,000.

That's before we look at the Birth/Death adjustments. In the 1990s, these were relatively insignificant. In 2001-02, it was less than 10% of total NFP each year. After a 2001 change to the format and weighting (effective in 2003), the B/D contribution to NFP went up dramatically. From 2003-06, Birth Death adjustments contributed between 35-41% of the total non-farm payroll job creation. In 2007, the B/D contribution is in excess of 76% of new jobs.

~~~

You have misconstrued my comments, and ignored the main point -- (Sounds like some "lawyering" on your part!)

Regards,

BR

Feeling Bearish? Don't Short This Market Yet

BTW, my post title (This is a bullshit rally) was based on me quoting a trader who I disagreed with -- the full post explains why I thought he was wrong