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  • Groupon's Problem Is Not The CEO, It's The Business Model [View article]
    You are right ! When i was a kid my mam use to buy me some "fish leaver oil" - the most discasting thing in earth - but even that was a wealth business model, as if the customer experience an horrible tasting the seller makes a great margin selling as a "medicine food" what was - in facts - throwned in the garbage ... ^^

    Groupon Business model CAN ONLY FALL, it's the only issue for a business that create unhappy merchants (who can't live with 75% discount) and customers (who are discrimined by hungry merchant) .. Even worth : most merchants - triyng to survive a deal - overprice before discount, this more than 60% cases ... In such cases, Groupon reveal it's true nature : a scam ...

    That's why they needed so badly all that fresh money, they got from both private and public investors ; That's why they could only hide the business model weakness by trunking there acounting ^^

    That's why Groupon have lost betwen 40 to 85% (!!!!!) of there traffic, then customers who certainly don't like to be scamed ... Check on Alexa Or Google trend the trafic stats from Groupon Germany, France, China, Hong Kong .. : it's all falling .. Falling ... For past 18 month .. Just falling ... despite an uuuuge "news medias" free advertising, added to an incredible ads and spaming river ... Despite also the loss of the thousand Groupon challengers who sank due to there "conventional" acounting approach of this business, (i mean they tried to make money instead of using there business to barrow some) ...

    To me, Groupon is not a business, it's a scam, a "Ponzi Sheme" because it's the "fresh" money that keept them alive, and made there fortune ^^

    Even at 1cent, Groupon is'nt a bye
    Mar 4 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Mason Out, Groupon's A Buy [View article]
    And i will add that it's all about theater concerning Groupon, why CEO was fired few hours only after Q4 ? They new for weeks what Q4 will be, they could keep Mason for a week, the time to find the "Man who makes miracles" they need to earn money with Daily Deals .. It's all about the market, it's only a sign to the market, like all the "new features" and investments annoncement ... It's how they can get the money from the gogo's ... ^^
    Mar 1 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Mason Out, Groupon's A Buy [View article]
    Groupon will be a "buy" when they will do a different business, Mason was not the problem, the problem is that Daily Deal don't create wealth, it's now two years that i say that, and it's two years that i am right :p

    FACTS :
    - Over 50 Daily Deals sites closed in Australia
    - Groupon lost an average of 80% visitors in Europe, 40% in north and south America, 50% in Asia ... (check with alexa or google trend :p)
    - The company got rid of HUNDREDS rivals past 20 month and they still don't "explode" there results, worth, there are declining, instead of enjoynd new free space in the market.

    - The company is under pressure of sever lawsuit due to many frauds ...

    Groupon is a buy ? I prefer to break my legs than buy Groupon ... ^^


    Mar 1 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon - Why You Should Sell The 100% Rally [View article]
    Agree with you 100% !

    I would add a comment on your article :

    Thus all investments, statup bought, and all, Groupon is FALLING all over the world, check this : [URL=http://bit.ly/U0274X][IMG]http://bit.ly/WbSYEv[/IMG][/URL]
    Jan 16 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Finally Lands On Planet Earth [View article]
    Agree 100% ==> +1
    Nov 11 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    # AplhaFan :
    1 no, 2 yes, 3 most offently the Groupon customers spend almost no extra money, my restaurant partners says only 2 out of 10 only take some wine ... Many drink water ...

    # Jason Z :
    The merchants must give the unique serial that is on the customer's coupon to be paid, each coupon have that unique serial, to be paid the merchant must give it to Groupon (and other DD sites) ^^

    Many merchant who have experience with Daily Deals biz have two principes :
    1 - They ask the coupon serial at first when the customers call to reserve, that way even if the customer don't come they can be paid

    2 - They overprice before discount, that way they don't win money, but they don't loose to ...

    By the way i made a mistake, the correct unused coupon is off course :
    == > 10% unused & not paid coupon : 6000$ - 600 = 2058 - 600 = 1458 $

    Groupon's lion part 4542 $
    For restaurant => 1458$ for 270 meals (5.4$ / meal)


    Nov 11 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    It's true that the restaurant or the yoga teacher is margin a lot, he have to pay the bills : electricity, taxes, rent, the staff, materials, etc ... at the end it's a lot of money !

    The coca cola glasse for exemple is sold 2.2$ in a clean restaurant, the soda cost is arround 30cts, the glass must be washed, plus ice, served by an employe, in nice chairs, music, air condition ... Acompted in the bill to witch is a cost ...

    Usualy we say a good business is 3/3
    1/3 for the material (room, food, ice, etc ...)
    1/3 for the running cost (employes, taxes, etc ..
    1/3 benefits ^^

    Groupon keep 100% the money of the unused coupons, this is beetwen 5 to 20% of the total deal, plus they pay in two times, 40% 10 days the rest two month later (!!)

    One interresting remark could be this one : they don't always charge 50% commission, it is more often now 30~50% (as business slowing down, and merchant get bored) .. The fact that Groupon is cutting is commisiion margin show all the stupidity of that business model ...

    Even 30% margin is two much ...

    Take a 20$ meal, 300 coupons sold :

    Deal = 6000$

    ==> 51% deal, left to merchant : 9.8$ / coupon
    ==> 9.8$ -30% commission = 6.86 / coupon
    == > 10% unused & not paid coupon : 2058$ - 205.8 = 1852$

    For restaurant => 1852$ for 270 meals (6.85$ / meal)
    Groupon's lion part 4147.8

    Now Groupon have a very dirty and scamy behavior with the merchant, with that money they spend 30% ads, 40% to pay staff (accompting, webmasters, writers, sellers ...) wat's left is taxes, and money keeped. NOTE that the restaurant is 70% times disapointed and will never do a deal again, so oftenly the days after this great deal Groupon have a bad deal to offert, witch it is less money, all usued to pay the staff, and taxes ...

    Turn it the way you want : Groupon is not profitable, the struggle to find new pigeons to crop with a deals cost a lot of money and energie, also the struggle to get more customers to bye a risqued deal is harder every week as these customers have the experience, sometime good, sometime bad ...

    I really know what i am talking about friends ;p

    Groupon worth 0$ at the Nasdaq, to compare with Zynga they have trouble BUT THEY HAVE A PRODUCT, Zynga have a knowledge, they give a service, Groupon don't have anything else than a wide croop, with a very easy website to copy, they only deserve a strong class-action for there acompting full of frauds and numbers manipulation ...

    Hope you see clearly now what i am talking about ? :)








    Nov 9 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon: The Valuations Will Improve As Operating Margins Expand [View article]
    Groupon is a Ponzi sheme in the sense that the money they barow was used to CEO's pocket money and to pay a udge amount of ads to give a ghost business running, hard to believe, but true ... ^^

    Q4 will be very lightly better than Q3 and 13-Q1 will be the same than 12-Q3
    Nov 9 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    Well ... I guessed all that for a year now :) ^^

    Since i really understoud Groupon and Daily Deals in general, I can tell today that Q4 will be very lightly better than Q3 and 13-Q1 will be the same than 12-Q3

    I predict also that all the attempt for them to find a wealthy business model will be down as the mobile payment have to many (and so heavy) challengers like Paypal or Square, same for ticket or goods ...

    Finally maybe some people will dig out what it is not easy to understand : Groupon is a SCAM, the business model is NOT WORKING as it is IMPOSSIBLE to margin a real wealth from a discount and it is impossible to run a long term business cutting partners income by 75% !!!

    Both merchant and customers get disapointed as they lose to much money for the first and find out the merchant overpricing attempt to survive and service downgrade for the second ...

    Groupon went public on fraud acompting, it's a mistery to me that no one complain this, furthermore, groupon used the IPO income to pay ads because the Daily Deals business don't create enought wealth to afford it, in that sense Groupon is a Ponzi sheme ^^

    Chears ..
    Nov 9 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon (GRPN -7.8%) closes with big losses. The Street is likely worried about the depressing performance of top rival LivingSocial, something that just forced 29% owner Amazon (AMZN -2.2%) to take a big write-down. In its Q3 10-Q, Amazon noted LivingSocial posted an operating loss of $69M in Q3 on revenue of $124M. Moreover, Amazon now gives LivingSocial a valuation of just $325M, 94% below the $5.7B valuation granted in a Dec. '11 funding round. Groupon, which reports on Nov. 8, is currently valued at $2.66B. [View news story]
    The answer next week !

    I pay you a beer if your right ;p
    Nov 1 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon: The Valuations Will Improve As Operating Margins Expand [View article]
    Groupon have a big lost yesterday with 3 times the usual amount of stock exchange, i'll says that some insiders have some premium informations about the next Q3 to be published in 8th Nov ^^

    It would mean that i am right, as i would have announced this bad Q3 5 month ago ... ;p
    Nov 1 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon (GRPN -7.8%) closes with big losses. The Street is likely worried about the depressing performance of top rival LivingSocial, something that just forced 29% owner Amazon (AMZN -2.2%) to take a big write-down. In its Q3 10-Q, Amazon noted LivingSocial posted an operating loss of $69M in Q3 on revenue of $124M. Moreover, Amazon now gives LivingSocial a valuation of just $325M, 94% below the $5.7B valuation granted in a Dec. '11 funding round. Groupon, which reports on Nov. 8, is currently valued at $2.66B. [View news story]
    Groupon's share is down over 7% with over 3X usual stock exchanged... It seems that insiders have premium informations concerning Q3 report :p it is planed to be published on 8th of november, look bad news to me ; sell sell ^^
    Oct 31 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon: The Valuations Will Improve As Operating Margins Expand [View article]
    Groupon charge 50% commission to partners, this to be added to the 50% deal and all the unused coupons that stays in the Groupon pocket, what's left for the partners ? Arround 20% is original price ! Not enought to pay is staff, the Groupon's partners loses money, that's why most of them are overpricing before discount, and many customer find it out in time, that's why Groupon (and all the Daily Deal business) is loosing unsatisfied customers everyday.

    Because Groupon is loosing both partners and customers week after week, they need advertising to survive, that's why they can't make it without a massive advertise strategie, also the customers and partners "reserve" is getting shorter as they disapoint them in time, that's why - to keep the same business level - the advertising cost is higher and higher ^^

    Because they cut there advertising this last 60 month the global Groupon reach as fallen down by 60% (!!!!) as anybodie can check in alexa web statistic just tip in Groupon, de, fr, cn, ("goapeng" is the chinese Groupon) and you will how healthy is Groupon ;)

    Groupon is - of what i know - a first time in history (!!!) that a non-profitable business model get into wall street !

    Because the all point is there : Groupon don't create ANY wealth, The Daily Deals business model is NON PROFITABLE, at last to verify this just check that over 1800 Daily website have closed in North & South America and over 500 in Europe ...

    To anybodies who will wonder then what kind of business the DailyDeal is my answer is very clear : The Daily Deal business is a Ponzi Scheme scam ...
    Oct 11 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon May Surprise The Bears [View article]
    As i said it already in previous post the problem with Groupon is the business model - is not profitable !!- it as nothing to do with Europe (hey, i am french :p) Europe have a lot communications, and many many peoples noticed that the Daily Deal clam many promess, but many of theme are not respected, it becomes a popular saying here (in Europe) to says in friends : "to bad, the restaurant you went last night was not good ?", "Was it a Groupon ?" this is very common today ... It became so famous that Groupon is the right way to have a terrible, disapointed, evening ...

    As i already explained it in the past post, (hey, i was all right :p ), the problem with Groupon is that they drastically cut there advertising to be able to show up benefits on Q2. With a huge amount of unsatisfied customers & partners it is then absolutely normal and logical that they lost some income ; this lost is from partners and customers mass that was lost and was not renewed by advertising.

    As i anticipated this "positive" Q2, i can say today that Q3 will be bad, bad, bad, because there sales are very low dues to vacancy summer period in Europe (also Russia) there income will be down of about 40%, this will be added to there very tight advertising cut to show up benefit in Q3 ...

    Q4 may be the end of Groupon's IPO adventure to my point of view ... Don't know how they will survive without the "snowball scam cash pump" that was the only IPO purpose for Groupon ...

    Finally, if Groupon didn’t cheat on there accounting, this IPO should never been possible, because a clear and loyal accounting would show that the Daily Deal is NOT PROFITABLE
    Aug 14 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon's (GRPN) Q/Q revenue growth over the last 6 quarters, per Scott Austin: 72%, 97%, 10%, 14%, 14%, 2%. Y/Y billings growth, meanwhile, has fallen from 103% in Q1 to 39% in Q2, and active customer growth from 3.2M to 1.1M. Groupon blames the slowdown on European softness, which led international growth to fall by more than 2/3. Shares -18.2% AH and now down 69% from their IPO price. (CC webcast) (Q2 results) Update: More details here. Groupon claims a greater dependence on high-price discretionary deals in Europe played a role. [View news story]
    It as nothing to do with Europe (hey, i am french :p) The problem is that Europe have a lot communications, and many many peoples noticed that the Daily Deal clam many promess, but many of theme are not respected, it becomes a popular saying here (in europe) to says in friends : "to bad, the restaurant you went last night was not good ?" Was it a Groupon ?" this is very common today ... So it became famous that Groupon is weeeeek ...

    As i already explained it in the past post, (hey, i was all right :p ), the problem with Groupon is that they drasticaly cut there advertising to be able to show up benefits on Q2. With a huge amount of unsatifyed customers & partners it is then absolutly normal and logical that they lost some income that was not renewed by advertising.

    As i anticipated this "positive" Q2, i can say today that Q3 will be bad, bad, bad, because there sales are very low dues to vacancy summer period in Europe (also russia) there income will be down of about 40%, this will be added to there very tight advertising cut to show up benefit in Q3 ...

    Q4 may be the end of Groupon's IPO adventure to my point of view ... Don't know how they will survive without the "snowball scam cash pump" that was the only IPO purpose for Groupon ...
    Aug 13 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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