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  • With Mason Out, Groupon's A Buy [View article]
    Groupon will be a "buy" when they will do a different business, Mason was not the problem, the problem is that Daily Deal don't create wealth, it's now two years that i say that, and it's two years that i am right :p

    FACTS :
    - Over 50 Daily Deals sites closed in Australia
    - Groupon lost an average of 80% visitors in Europe, 40% in north and south America, 50% in Asia ... (check with alexa or google trend :p)
    - The company got rid of HUNDREDS rivals past 20 month and they still don't "explode" there results, worth, there are declining, instead of enjoynd new free space in the market.

    - The company is under pressure of sever lawsuit due to many frauds ...

    Groupon is a buy ? I prefer to break my legs than buy Groupon ... ^^


    Mar 1, 2013. 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon's (GRPN) Q/Q revenue growth over the last 6 quarters, per Scott Austin: 72%, 97%, 10%, 14%, 14%, 2%. Y/Y billings growth, meanwhile, has fallen from 103% in Q1 to 39% in Q2, and active customer growth from 3.2M to 1.1M. Groupon blames the slowdown on European softness, which led international growth to fall by more than 2/3. Shares -18.2% AH and now down 69% from their IPO price. (CC webcast) (Q2 results) Update: More details here. Groupon claims a greater dependence on high-price discretionary deals in Europe played a role. [View news story]
    It as nothing to do with Europe (hey, i am french :p) The problem is that Europe have a lot communications, and many many peoples noticed that the Daily Deal clam many promess, but many of theme are not respected, it becomes a popular saying here (in europe) to says in friends : "to bad, the restaurant you went last night was not good ?" Was it a Groupon ?" this is very common today ... So it became famous that Groupon is weeeeek ...

    As i already explained it in the past post, (hey, i was all right :p ), the problem with Groupon is that they drasticaly cut there advertising to be able to show up benefits on Q2. With a huge amount of unsatifyed customers & partners it is then absolutly normal and logical that they lost some income that was not renewed by advertising.

    As i anticipated this "positive" Q2, i can say today that Q3 will be bad, bad, bad, because there sales are very low dues to vacancy summer period in Europe (also russia) there income will be down of about 40%, this will be added to there very tight advertising cut to show up benefit in Q3 ...

    Q4 may be the end of Groupon's IPO adventure to my point of view ... Don't know how they will survive without the "snowball scam cash pump" that was the only IPO purpose for Groupon ...
    Aug 13, 2012. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where'd Groupon's Growth Go? [View article]
    The Groupon case is very particular, it's only a way to make cash (with IPO) as i shown, there are DIFFERENT way to explain how the Daily Deal can only sink :
    - the business model is not making benefit's because severals reason's : (but one is already enought :)

    a) As explained, the fact to earn money from the commission of a discount is making it to big for the merchant, a merchant can exeptionaly lose 50% on is regular price with no benefit / no lose BUT if you take of the commision witch is betwen 25 to 50% the merchant lose to much ! So most of them are cheating by overpricing before discount, this is only comon sense : if you give 75% away you really lose money ! As a consequence most merchant are cheating there price before discount and then the customer -if they find out - are really not happy ... On the other side if the merchant don't overprice he will likely be disapointed, or he will close is restaurant ...

    b) The fact to earn money from a discount is also going against economique evidence, as you evidently don't create more value but you create an under value, you make powerty ..

    c) The daily deal customers are, for very most of theme, only opportunistes who enjoy a great discount and disapear as the merchant hope to see theme coming back paying full price .. In is dreams ... Furthermore those customers have a family life, hobby ... So they don't have time to consume to many deals, witch is a bad new for groupon return on investment from the 5€ coast of one customer ..

    d) The daily Deal (that became in time the 72 hours deals) is taking a lot of energy to negociate the deals, signin contract, show the advertise to merchant before publish ... This is a lot of work, to rentabilize this you need to sell a lot ^^ This is the reason why most of Daily Deals company have turned from 24Hours deals to 72Hours, and some of theme 7 day's !

    So this is FACTS, and i know very well this business as i am in it (on a different economique model, yet making benefit for long time in France) AND this is the prouf by 4 different way that the Daily Deal is not creating and making money, and the fact to prouf that in 4 different way is pretty exeptional in business history

    The fact that Groupon grew up so fast is easy to explain : they spend all there money plus all the extra money from investors in advertising, this advertising have been glorified in all the news at television about "the new economique revolution".

    But now the falling have started, if they cut advertising the customers and the merchant are leaving the boat ... The only way for Groupon to stay alive is to change there principal activity to a working one, and i can promise here that they know that ! This is why they lied on there accompting, this is why they are buying start up, this is why CEO Mason's want to make an "operating system" this is why they needed to get at the nasdaq ...

    I readed upstairs that Groupon is similar to priceline ==> Ho no ! it is not if you want to compare Groupon to another thing take the "snow ball" fraud (the Madoff affaire)

    Priceline is an economiqualy good business, we call it in France the "boat reduction business" the discount is usually arround15% and both the merchant and the customer are happy with that ....

    To marcelita03 : i wich you that Groupon show up some benefit in a week, then you can resell your stock .. Good luck



    Jul 17, 2012. 01:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 7 Questions I Want To Ask Groupon Management [View article]
    In France we know that Groupon business model is not available (working) for 3(!!) reasons :

    1 - A restaurant cannot make 51% discount and pay betwen 25 to 50% commission to groupon, witch leaves less than 25~30% from the original price witch is not enought to pay food, employes, taxe, electricity ... The result of that simple - and evident - aknowledgement is that most of the "daily deal" partners are tcheating on theres prices, with more than 35% overpricing for more than 60% of theme !! As a consequence, more than 85% (!!) of eather partners and customers are not happy because when the partner apply the 75% (51% + commission) discount they don't want to do it again !! and on the other side if the partner overprice before discount most of the daily deal customers will find out, and feels highly stolen !! As you see :
    - If the partners do really the 75% discount they will live an experience that they will never reproduce
    - If the partners are over pricing before discount, then the unhappy will be the customers !!
    conclusion : the two partner / customer are not happy, wich is a VERY bad sky for business !!

    2 - the daily deals sellers (negociators with partners) have the argus to say that "the price is not important, the real goal is the free advertising that partners gain" but almost all the partners knows that on monday one restaurant is presented, but every one forgot it (customers) on wednesday because another restaurant is presented and sometime a concurent .... The "advertise" argument is evidently not reliable

    3 - Groupon spend more than 5$ to get one customer on is website, but the probleme is that this customer will spend a average of 3.8$ (look for the mistake) what they wished is that the gained customer will buy several times BUT most people's have a limited time for leisure because they work, have kid's, hobby etc ... At this must be added all the despited customers for previous reasons ...

    At the light from those facts, severals point are very easy to explain :

    - Considering that the daily deal is riding strait up to be crashed in a wall, Mason's (groupon CEO) kept the 600 000 000$ he gained from investors in he's personal accompt

    - the contract signed by the partners include a "3 time reconduction" so at the first deal Groupon have the right to re-publish the offer 2 more times, they do that because they know that a incresing majority will not reproduce the deal experience

    - The IPO's purpose in made only to make cash, because the company don't make benefit's du to reasons exposed earlier

    - The IPO introduction was made under HEAVY accompting lies

    - In France Groupon was alexa N°6 website, and today ... N°110 because they cut advertising by 80% to present benefit's in Nasdaq, But as explained earlier most of the Customers / Partners are not reproducing the daily deal experience

    To finish, i can tell you that the daily deal is natively french, yes ! i remember a website called "Clust" and it was very very similar to Groupon, this was more than 6 years ago i think ... Guess what ? he closed the service because .... It was not profitable ^^

    Sorry, for my bad english

    Hugo
    Jul 4, 2012. 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Mason Out, Groupon's A Buy [View article]
    And i will add that it's all about theater concerning Groupon, why CEO was fired few hours only after Q4 ? They new for weeks what Q4 will be, they could keep Mason for a week, the time to find the "Man who makes miracles" they need to earn money with Daily Deals .. It's all about the market, it's only a sign to the market, like all the "new features" and investments annoncement ... It's how they can get the money from the gogo's ... ^^
    Mar 1, 2013. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Finally Lands On Planet Earth [View article]
    Agree 100% ==> +1
    Nov 11, 2012. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    Well ... I guessed all that for a year now :) ^^

    Since i really understoud Groupon and Daily Deals in general, I can tell today that Q4 will be very lightly better than Q3 and 13-Q1 will be the same than 12-Q3

    I predict also that all the attempt for them to find a wealthy business model will be down as the mobile payment have to many (and so heavy) challengers like Paypal or Square, same for ticket or goods ...

    Finally maybe some people will dig out what it is not easy to understand : Groupon is a SCAM, the business model is NOT WORKING as it is IMPOSSIBLE to margin a real wealth from a discount and it is impossible to run a long term business cutting partners income by 75% !!!

    Both merchant and customers get disapointed as they lose to much money for the first and find out the merchant overpricing attempt to survive and service downgrade for the second ...

    Groupon went public on fraud acompting, it's a mistery to me that no one complain this, furthermore, groupon used the IPO income to pay ads because the Daily Deals business don't create enought wealth to afford it, in that sense Groupon is a Ponzi sheme ^^

    Chears ..
    Nov 9, 2012. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where'd Groupon's Growth Go? [View article]
    I am in the Daily Deal business (on another form) ans i can say's for shure :

    Groupon business model is not making money (from the begening t'il today Groupon only losse money) Because they cut advertising by 80% to show retability, there traffic lost 20% in the alexa.

    This proof that if you don't feed this business by udge advertising, the business fall .. Simply ...

    Why ? The first reason is very simple : Almoste all the partnaires can't make 51% discount + pay to the Daily Deal site a commission that is 25 to 50% (witch make 40 to 25% the original income left) So, what they do to avoid losing to much money ? They all overpricing !! What append when the couponer get in the shop and watch the real prices on the card ? they get angry and fell fooled ...

    This is one of the reason's why the Daily Deal can only go to hell :

    - If the partner discount the real price, he make a mistake i'll never do again
    - If the partner overprice before discount, then the couponer fell fooled ...

    One one way or another : or the customer or the seller are not happy, and sometime both of theme ...

    This is why Groupon need advertise so much, to keep the fire runing ...

    Furthermore we can say that the Daily Deal face some other problems, in withch the fact that customers don't spend there life to leisure, poeple's have there family, there job, there problems, there hobby ... So tipicaly the Daily Deal buyer is not a "often" buyer, and he is only an opportunist... Still not good for Groupon ...

    Groupon is running against the wall of fatality, and they know that, this is why they tried to "sank the fish" (*) by annoncing all the startup they baught, fake comptability, "new devellopment" and all that ...

    I'll say, personaly, that they may have - there first - positive Q1 at the end of july, because they cut so much in the advertising, maybe for the next quarter to. But after this, it's clear that the fell will be sure and long ... As it have been since the begeinig of that story ...

    * (typicaly french expression)

    Jul 16, 2012. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon's Problem Is Not The CEO, It's The Business Model [View article]
    You are right ! When i was a kid my mam use to buy me some "fish leaver oil" - the most discasting thing in earth - but even that was a wealth business model, as if the customer experience an horrible tasting the seller makes a great margin selling as a "medicine food" what was - in facts - throwned in the garbage ... ^^

    Groupon Business model CAN ONLY FALL, it's the only issue for a business that create unhappy merchants (who can't live with 75% discount) and customers (who are discrimined by hungry merchant) .. Even worth : most merchants - triyng to survive a deal - overprice before discount, this more than 60% cases ... In such cases, Groupon reveal it's true nature : a scam ...

    That's why they needed so badly all that fresh money, they got from both private and public investors ; That's why they could only hide the business model weakness by trunking there acounting ^^

    That's why Groupon have lost betwen 40 to 85% (!!!!!) of there traffic, then customers who certainly don't like to be scamed ... Check on Alexa Or Google trend the trafic stats from Groupon Germany, France, China, Hong Kong .. : it's all falling .. Falling ... For past 18 month .. Just falling ... despite an uuuuge "news medias" free advertising, added to an incredible ads and spaming river ... Despite also the loss of the thousand Groupon challengers who sank due to there "conventional" acounting approach of this business, (i mean they tried to make money instead of using there business to barrow some) ...

    To me, Groupon is not a business, it's a scam, a "Ponzi Sheme" because it's the "fresh" money that keept them alive, and made there fortune ^^

    Even at 1cent, Groupon is'nt a bye
    Mar 4, 2013. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon - Why You Should Sell The 100% Rally [View article]
    Agree with you 100% !

    I would add a comment on your article :

    Thus all investments, statup bought, and all, Groupon is FALLING all over the world, check this : [URL=http://bit.ly/U0274X][IMG]http://bit.ly/WbSYEv[/IMG][/URL]
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    # AplhaFan :
    1 no, 2 yes, 3 most offently the Groupon customers spend almost no extra money, my restaurant partners says only 2 out of 10 only take some wine ... Many drink water ...

    # Jason Z :
    The merchants must give the unique serial that is on the customer's coupon to be paid, each coupon have that unique serial, to be paid the merchant must give it to Groupon (and other DD sites) ^^

    Many merchant who have experience with Daily Deals biz have two principes :
    1 - They ask the coupon serial at first when the customers call to reserve, that way even if the customer don't come they can be paid

    2 - They overprice before discount, that way they don't win money, but they don't loose to ...

    By the way i made a mistake, the correct unused coupon is off course :
    == > 10% unused & not paid coupon : 6000$ - 600 = 2058 - 600 = 1458 $

    Groupon's lion part 4542 $
    For restaurant => 1458$ for 270 meals (5.4$ / meal)


    Nov 11, 2012. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Outlook On Groupon After Its Earnings Miss [View article]
    It's true that the restaurant or the yoga teacher is margin a lot, he have to pay the bills : electricity, taxes, rent, the staff, materials, etc ... at the end it's a lot of money !

    The coca cola glasse for exemple is sold 2.2$ in a clean restaurant, the soda cost is arround 30cts, the glass must be washed, plus ice, served by an employe, in nice chairs, music, air condition ... Acompted in the bill to witch is a cost ...

    Usualy we say a good business is 3/3
    1/3 for the material (room, food, ice, etc ...)
    1/3 for the running cost (employes, taxes, etc ..
    1/3 benefits ^^

    Groupon keep 100% the money of the unused coupons, this is beetwen 5 to 20% of the total deal, plus they pay in two times, 40% 10 days the rest two month later (!!)

    One interresting remark could be this one : they don't always charge 50% commission, it is more often now 30~50% (as business slowing down, and merchant get bored) .. The fact that Groupon is cutting is commisiion margin show all the stupidity of that business model ...

    Even 30% margin is two much ...

    Take a 20$ meal, 300 coupons sold :

    Deal = 6000$

    ==> 51% deal, left to merchant : 9.8$ / coupon
    ==> 9.8$ -30% commission = 6.86 / coupon
    == > 10% unused & not paid coupon : 2058$ - 205.8 = 1852$

    For restaurant => 1852$ for 270 meals (6.85$ / meal)
    Groupon's lion part 4147.8

    Now Groupon have a very dirty and scamy behavior with the merchant, with that money they spend 30% ads, 40% to pay staff (accompting, webmasters, writers, sellers ...) wat's left is taxes, and money keeped. NOTE that the restaurant is 70% times disapointed and will never do a deal again, so oftenly the days after this great deal Groupon have a bad deal to offert, witch it is less money, all usued to pay the staff, and taxes ...

    Turn it the way you want : Groupon is not profitable, the struggle to find new pigeons to crop with a deals cost a lot of money and energie, also the struggle to get more customers to bye a risqued deal is harder every week as these customers have the experience, sometime good, sometime bad ...

    I really know what i am talking about friends ;p

    Groupon worth 0$ at the Nasdaq, to compare with Zynga they have trouble BUT THEY HAVE A PRODUCT, Zynga have a knowledge, they give a service, Groupon don't have anything else than a wide croop, with a very easy website to copy, they only deserve a strong class-action for there acompting full of frauds and numbers manipulation ...

    Hope you see clearly now what i am talking about ? :)








    Nov 9, 2012. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon: The Valuations Will Improve As Operating Margins Expand [View article]
    Groupon is a Ponzi sheme in the sense that the money they barow was used to CEO's pocket money and to pay a udge amount of ads to give a ghost business running, hard to believe, but true ... ^^

    Q4 will be very lightly better than Q3 and 13-Q1 will be the same than 12-Q3
    Nov 9, 2012. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon (GRPN -7.8%) closes with big losses. The Street is likely worried about the depressing performance of top rival LivingSocial, something that just forced 29% owner Amazon (AMZN -2.2%) to take a big write-down. In its Q3 10-Q, Amazon noted LivingSocial posted an operating loss of $69M in Q3 on revenue of $124M. Moreover, Amazon now gives LivingSocial a valuation of just $325M, 94% below the $5.7B valuation granted in a Dec. '11 funding round. Groupon, which reports on Nov. 8, is currently valued at $2.66B. [View news story]
    The answer next week !

    I pay you a beer if your right ;p
    Nov 1, 2012. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon: The Valuations Will Improve As Operating Margins Expand [View article]
    Groupon have a big lost yesterday with 3 times the usual amount of stock exchange, i'll says that some insiders have some premium informations about the next Q3 to be published in 8th Nov ^^

    It would mean that i am right, as i would have announced this bad Q3 5 month ago ... ;p
    Nov 1, 2012. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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