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John N

John N
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  • Loral - To Sell Or Not To Sell Is Not The Question [View article]
    Assume you saw the Highland 13D??? They are using your work!
    Aug 5 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loral - To Sell Or Not To Sell Is Not The Question [View article]
    Thanks Chris. Impressive work as always. I'm actually hoping they wait another 6 months if this valuation scenario plays out. Not quite cash, but I like this in my portfolio at somewhere btw a 11-40% return from current levels.
    Jul 16 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuvilex: Paid Promotion Marijuana Bubble Set To Burst [View article]
    No position here, but I do recommend looking into the Lincoln Park investment. Appears legit and on terms that are not coercive, overly dilutive, etc...only scanned the doc, but I do recommend squaring that investment w/your short thesis. Critical piece of the story.
    Feb 28 02:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA's Next Earnings Announcement Could Be The Start To A Rally [View article]
    Recall mgmt said expect to hear from agencies in 3-6 back in August. We are around 6 months, should hear from S&P right after earnings. Watch pos at Moodys.
    Feb 25 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA's Next Earnings Announcement Could Be The Start To A Rally [View article]
    Earnings March 3.

    I agree w/you on the premise/discounted valuation here (although I don't think it trades at book, but the discount should close) , but don't dismiss PR and/or Detroit. Munis "were" safe, but that is a general statement (lots of flavors of munis) and the issues in PR are serious and will persist for awhile. They need to outline their disclosure like some of the other monolines have done.
    Feb 25 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Duration Matters [View article]
    Quick question: I understand the formulas and concepts behind duration, but curious if you have a shortcut to arrive at duration (for example, is there a quick back of the envelope calculation or rule of thumb to arrive at the 4 for the bond above).....again, I know the formulas/concepts but just curious if there a rule of thumb or way to do a quick and dirty calc.
    Jan 23 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Probably not a bad move to buy as many as possible in open market and then tender for the remainder. Cheaper/quicker than than fighting lawsuits and actually makes good economic sense if u believe drug will succeed outside us.
    Dec 30 08:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Actually, thinking possibly Sunday night ahead of sanofi European trading open. My guess (and only a guess) is FDA asked for more info. Pushes approval past march 31, but keeps hopes alive for sales milestones down the road.
    Dec 28 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Per Bloomberg...gcvrz trading halted news pending (7:05 pm)...odd. Envelope please....!
    Dec 27 07:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    EJT, "If, in your thinking, you rely entirely on others, often through purchase of professional advice, whenever outside a small territory of your own, you will suffer much calamity." -Charlie Munger
    Nov 19 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    If you have a few minutes, check out the WSJ article "Trials" this weekend. Not directly related to GCVRZ, but fascinating and heart-wrenching look at drug development and the FDA. Long piece, but pretty great piece of long form journalism. (and unfortunately, highlights one situation where the FDA didn't listen to the panel....although that is not the point of the piece)

    http://bit.ly/17FDV0H
    Nov 18 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Here is Bloomberg summary: See that last bullet, I think it sums it up:

    By Catherine Larkin and Meg Tirrell
    Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- FDA advisory panel voted in favor of
    efficacy, safety of Sanofi’s Lemtrada to treat relapsing forms
    of multiple sclerosis even after agency staff cautioned that the
    drug’s risks outweighed its benefits.
    • FDA panel voted 12-6 that Lemtrada is effective at treating relapsing MS, 17-0 with 1 abstention that safety concerns shouldn’t preclude approval
    • Panel members said drug shouldn’t be used as first-line therapy and doesn’t help disability
    • FDA isn’t required to follow panel’s recommendations; Pdufa date for decision on approval is Dec. 27
    • Analysts, investors discounted chances for approval after FDA staff report released Nov. 8 raised questions about safety issues and study design
    • Leerink said in Nov. 8 note that positive panel outcome and N-T U.S. approval “will be extremely challenging”
    • GCVRZ contingent value right fell 66% over 2 days to 69c, is halted today; CVR holders would get $1 if Lemtrada wins FDA approval before March 31 and up to $12 more if drug reaches certain global sales milestones
    • Bayer to co-promote drug in U.S. if approved; BTG receives undisclosed royalty on sales
    • Lemtrada would compete with other MS drugs incl. Biogen’s Tecfidera, Novartis’s Gilenya, Teva’s Copaxone
    • Bloomberg Industries analyst Andrew Berens says approval odds better than yday, though “hard to handicap” given FDA’s mandate to ensure drugs are proven safe and effective
    Nov 13 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    drama not over yet...frankly, think this advisory cmte is mixed and we won't know much until PDUFA date on 12/27.
    Nov 13 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    *FDA PANEL VOTES 17-0 RISKS OF LEMTRADA DON'T PRECLUDE APPROVAL (Bloomberg)
    Nov 13 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    *LEMTRADA SAFETY CONCERNS DON'T PRECLUDE APPROVAL, PANEL SAYS
    Nov 13 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
33 Comments
6 Likes