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Freedom Fan

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  • A Brief History Of Gold And Why It's Overvalued By A Factor Of 2 [View article]
    The major flaw in this article is that it uses U.S. CPI as the only measure of inflation. Demand for gold is world-wide, not just in the U.S. Further world-wide, inflation is already a major problem, whether or not it is currently reflected in U.S. consumer prices.

    The proper measure of inflation is the world's supply of money and credit as a percent of world GDP. Since the globe is floating in paper and debt, gold is a screaming buy.
    Feb 14, 2014. 01:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Brief History Of Gold And Why It's Overvalued By A Factor Of 2 [View article]
    This is all you need to know about gold: China is buying it.

    Chinese keep all they mine and they buy the rest from the West when we are dumb enough to sell it to them. Chinese make virtually all the consumer goods purchased by the West. The West produces very little of anything, but voraciously consumes everything produced by China. The West pays for their appetite with money created out of thin air. The Chinese know this arrangement is ripping them off, is unsustainable and must collapse at some point. Therefore the Chinese are backing their currency with as much gold as they can get their hands on. When the US dollar collapses, the Chinese will be the new economic leaders of the world. Those who do not hold gold will be left with only worthless paper.
    Feb 13, 2014. 08:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Setting Up For Another Fall [View article]
    As long as CEF is selling gold and silver at a steep discount, there is no bubble.

    Also I am amused by logic that says gold must crash because the Fed tentatively tried a taper. Meanwhile gold actually did crash when the Fed started QE infinity.
    Feb 13, 2014. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For Gold In 2014 [View article]
    The sequester was gutted by both sides. The deficit is not gonna be falling until Obama leaves on permanent vacation.
    Jan 10, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For Gold In 2014 [View article]
    Charles is just another gold perma-bear who has been wrong since at least August 2010 before gold hit its massive top two years later.

    A bet against gold is a bet on the U.S. dollar. This is an election year. The new Fed chairman is Janet Yellen--far worse than even Bernanke. Today's jobs report was astonishingly dismal. Nearly 100 million Americans have now left the work force.

    So if you think the Fed is going to "taper" any time soon, you are simply delusional. They will continue to print mountains of funny money. Keep your paper; I'll keep my gold.
    Jan 10, 2014. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For Gold In 2014 [View article]
    Charles would have more credibility if he had called the huge run-up in Gold. He didn't. He is just a gold bear who has been telling everyone to sell gold since at least August 2010, right before the huge top 2 years later.

    A bet against gold is a bet for the U.S. dollar, which has been printed in massive quantities. Today the job report was shockingly pathetic and almost 100 million have left the labor force. This is also an election year. If you think uber-dove Janet Yellen is about to stop counterfeiting funny money anytime soon, you are certifiably insane.
    Jan 10, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did The Stock Market Explode Upward In 1995 And Can It Happen Again? [View article]
    You are correct that the 1990's stock market explosion coincided with the Gingrich Republican Revolution and the Contract With America. But things are different now because:

    1) Unlike HillaryCare defeated by the Republicans, ObamaCare is the law of the land so no one will be hiring full time employees

    2) Republicans control only the House, not the Senate, and therefore cannot push back against Obama's job-destroying and economy-killing policies

    3) The US currency is garbage, thanks to insane money printing by Obama and Uncle Ben. This currency decline is directly correlated to the stock market indicating that all gains have been illusory; the stock market is a house of cards.

    4) US debt levels are unsustainable. We have debt that can never be repaid, so we will inflate it away, causing inflation. This means we are more likely in the mid-1970's rather than the mid 1990's.

    Next year will be interesting however, as the Republicans have a slight chance to take the Senate.
    Jul 22, 2013. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why No Investor Should Own GLD [View article]
    Why not own both? Diversify to spread out your counterparty risk for 0.15%. Throw in some PHYS too.
    Feb 21, 2012. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Or Technicals: Which Provides Better Predictive Value? [View article]
    I think the confusion can be cleared up by distinguishing between short run trading and long term investing.

    Buffet-style value investing attempts to determine whether something is selling at a bargain, based upon its long term potential.

    So the idea is to recognize investments with long term growth potential, then offer ridiculously low prices and wait for fearful investors to give them to you at a discount. Soros invented the term "reflexivity" to name the powerful human potential to over-react based primarily upon the emotion of fear and greed.

    There is a general consensus that in the short run, the market is random-walk, based upon human emotion reacting to the news of the day. But the news of the day means little to a long term investor, unless it has the potential to persist for many months.

    Technical analysis uses market patterns to discern the mood of the herd, with little regard to the valuation of the underlying assets. TA is successful to the extent that other TA traders believe in the ability of the same patterns to affect prices. I think there is a good reason that TA traders never publish a comprehensive history of their calls.
    Dec 13, 2011. 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day, Employment Edition [View article]
    Please be patient and allow the Obama/Pelosi Porkulus time to work its magic with millions of shovel-ready jobs.
    Dec 5, 2011. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in online sales. Stronger than expected demand suggests there may be a disconnect between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually spend.  [View news story]
    Interesting. Do you suppose fiscally responsible Republicans in charge of Congress helped make a successful Democrat president like during the Clinton term?
    Nov 27, 2011. 12:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are U.S. Stock Markets Anticipating Too Much, Too Soon? [View article]
    "I am on record as calling the U.S. stock market a buy in September when Robert Shiller’s PE10 (S&P 500 expressed as a ratio to the average trailing earnings of the past ten years) dropped below 20 and presented value. "
    -Prieur du Plessis, November 15, 2011

    "...with the S&P 500 Index’s current ten-year normalised PE of 19.3% and dividend yield of 2.1%, investors should be aware of the fact that the market is by historical standards in above “average value” territory. As far as the market in general is concerned, this argues for unexciting long-term returns..."
    -Prieur du Plessis, August 27, 2010 (at the start of huge bull run)

    Nov 17, 2011. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    I'll check it out. Thank you.
    Nov 1, 2011. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    I'll keep an open mind for now; please name 3 calls of which you are most proud in the last 5 years.
    Oct 31, 2011. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    Hopefully that prediction will be as woefully inaccurate as the rest of yours consistently have been.

    Yep, it was the end of the bear market in the spring of 2008...yep, time to sell gold in the fall of 2008.
    Oct 31, 2011. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment