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arondaniel

arondaniel
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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    "There is Walmart.com, Target.com, Newegg.com, bhphoto.com, homedepot.com, bedbathandbyeond.com and 100 other online distributors"

    I don't know @cparm. I agree that profits are important, eventually, but Amazon is a lot more than on-line shopping now.

    Sure, people can buy their made in China crap as easily on Walmart.com. Hosting an entire data center and dynamically scaling compute resources? Not so much.

    Same goes with Tesla. Anyone can sell you a car - point A to point B. But this whole need for green energy and transportation, distributed energy storage, rapid electrification of the fleet, and massive efficiency gains. Nobody else seems to really want to do that.
    Aug 19 10:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's A Simple Explanation Of How Tesla's New Warranty Policy Affects Earnings [View article]
    @Miro I think that is demonstrably wrong. If Tesla wanted to disavow models below 85kWh they would not:

    - offer a free upgrade from the discontinued 40kWh to the 60kWh + software limit.

    - include supercharging hardware in the 60kWh, just in case the customer decides to add supercharging later

    - set the specs on EVERY PART of the 60kWh car as identical to the 85 kWh, except pack size.

    Now you can accuse them of selling highest margin cars first. They're certainly guilty of that. And that is bad exactly why? Because I had to wait a little longer?
    Aug 19 08:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's A Simple Explanation Of How Tesla's New Warranty Policy Affects Earnings [View article]
    @outfornow agreed!

    I think Teslas goodwill reserve is way more important than its warranty reserve. Especially at this stage in the game when they're still trying to get a foothold with a radically new product.
    Aug 19 08:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's China Dreams May Be In Trouble [View article]
    Yes, most of us fall short of sainthood. Many of us get divorced. So freakin what?

    He's trying to solve very large problems and thinking long term. Most CEOs are not like that at all.
    Aug 19 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's China Dreams May Be In Trouble [View article]
    "Don't kid yourself, Musk behaves no differently than any other wealthy CEO. Take a peek at this personal history, divorced mother of his 6 kids to marry an actress 10 years younger."

    Yes, because only wealthy CEOs ever get divorced. Next up: why do wealthy CEOs account for ~36% of all marriages?
    Aug 18 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's A Simple Explanation Of How Tesla's New Warranty Policy Affects Earnings [View article]
    I have some bad news for you @TheeSeer. According to Panasonic's own charts the degradation curve starts somewhat steep then levels off. However cars at 20k miles are not seeing any range loss!! My car has MORE range now than when new (thanks to some software update) but I only have 9k miles.

    You see, with such a huge battery, customers can keep it in the sweet spot, 20-80% charge, virtually all the time except maybe the annual trip to Tahoe.

    The batteries according to Panasonic specs are good to 400,000 miles. Tesla supposedly has a longevity test car with 500,000 miles but I don't know what range it's getting. Let's hope it's less than 200!

    Sorry. I know it's getting a bit desperate out there looking for chinks in Teslas armor...
    Aug 17 11:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's A Simple Explanation Of How Tesla's New Warranty Policy Affects Earnings [View article]
    "Almost all of the reports described it as a loud grinding noise correlated with vehicle speed."

    Uh... I respectfully disagree. No they don't. They report a hum/whine under hard acceleration. Totally consistent with a loose cable or shim or something.

    I'm sure a handful really did grind up and die, just like a handful of any car models have issues.
    Aug 17 10:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    "They can do anything they want, anytime with respect to batteries."

    Sure, and AOL can do anything they want w.r.t. social media, Sony entertainment can do anything they want w.r.t. digital music streaming, Sears can do anything they want w.r.t. on-line commerce, Motorola can do anything they want w.r.t. smartphones, etc. etc. etc.
    Aug 17 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    "Given that a Model S can get 250 miles on a 1 hour charge, you should be able to get another 40 miles of range for a 10 minute charge at any local gas station."

    @chipdoctor that is incorrect. The rate of 250 in 1 hour implies DC fast charging and a very large battery pack to accept such a fast charge.

    If there is DC fast charging like that available at all gas stations, say goodbye to gasoline engines in all forms.
    Aug 17 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    "A life of 100K miles for Tesla Model S. I think this is optimistic, based on Long term tests. MSRP of $100K."

    Lol!!! Valueseeker... That calculation reeks of desperation. The battery cells in the large 85 kWh pack are spec'd at a service life of 400,000 miles, look it up. Panasonic NCA. Most will want to upgrade to a larger pack for less money before then.

    Loaners are, by definition, taking the steep depreciation that hits all new cars in their first year.

    Sure, Model S is expensive. It shouldn't surprise anyone that an Accord could have a lower TCO... Assuming gas stays good & cheap. So hang your hat on that, because it's all you have... although not for much longer.
    Aug 15 10:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Loony Is It Getting? Three Tales From The Deep [View article]
    "Well, Alfa Romeo and others also change the faulty parts - and yet you still end up with lemons. The Model S has a very high likelihood of being a lemon for 2nd hand buyers outside warranty."

    Likelihood based on what? If the re-engineered parts don't fail, then long-term reliability is likely to be very good.

    Again, Paolo. Four orders of magnitude fewer parts. You think that won't matter?
    Aug 14 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Coming Automotive App Economy [View article]
    "Alternatively, rent yourself a higher-end VW, a BMW or Mercedes. I think you ain't seen nothin' yet."

    Ok, so based on Stephen's capabilities matrix above, where are they?

    I haven't driven the latest Mercs or BMWs. From what I remember about the iDrive system, with its hockey puck navigator and tiny screen though... Not impressive.
    Aug 14 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Loony Is It Getting? Three Tales From The Deep [View article]
    "Proactively fixing them does not clear up the problem that this is going to be a mighty expensive car to maintain outside warranty."

    No, because these repairs use re-engineered parts that failed on early models. New cars won't ship with old parts.

    Besides, the numbers are in Tesla's favor: 10,000+ to ~7 parts that make the car move.
    Aug 14 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Loony Is It Getting? Three Tales From The Deep [View article]
    "OTOH replacing the drivetrain three times is no cheap or easy fix which is what happened with the model S Edmunds was testing."

    Actually Multikat, it probably was cheap and easy, crazy as that does sound.

    The "drive unit" is a single assembly and can apparently be swapped very quickly to get the customer her car back in a jiffy. Easy.

    These drive units did not experience any major failure. They were fixed by replacing minor sub-parts, or in the case with Edmunds, zip-tying a cable so it doesn't vibrate. Cheap.
    Aug 14 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Rockets, QTR Takes A Victory Lap For Longs [View article]
    "Do you think there is a reason to believe that this time, in this particular tech revolution, things will be different?"

    I think there are a few ways that incumbents can survive/thrive during the revolution:

    - spin off a new entity to focus on the new tech. They can focus without having to compete with other groups for resources or constantly justify their course of action.

    - join forces with the leading disrupter. Too late to buy Tesla but Mercedes has some sort of agreement in place obviously.

    - Tesla has offered a third way: use their patents. Pride goeth before the fall... Maybe one or two legacies will take them up on it eventually.

    What legacies are doing now - half-measures - seems destined to fall short. Hey, I'm not an automotive engineer. But it strains reason to think you can take one common platform, swap out the diesel/gas engine, swap in an electric motor, and voila, you have a Tesla beating 300 mile super EV.
    Aug 13 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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