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arondaniel

arondaniel
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  • Tesla Is Not A Battery. [View instapost]
    Wow I can't believe somebody read this!

    Stop receiving credits? Sure thing... but I already spent my tax refund though. Dang.
    May 21, 2015. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uber, Not Tesla, Will Be Apple's Competition In The Automobile Industry [View article]
    "an AI would have to be incredibly smart and capable -- almost as smart and capable as an actual human."

    We have a bifurcated view of AI. It's either: no way... only people will ever do that! or: oh, so my car parallel parks itself now and my personal assistant is a phone. That I talk to. No big deal.

    In other words, as soon as it works it's no longer "AI".... AI is only for the impossible stuff.

    As for the dude in a driveway example I think the software learns, over time, in this precise situation that there is a probability X of getting T-boned, Y of getting rear-ended, Z of getting side-swiped, K of pissing off the occupants by slamming the brakes unnecessarily. And reacts accordingly.
    May 21, 2015. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uber, Not Tesla, Will Be Apple's Competition In The Automobile Industry [View article]
    This article features a lame and perfunctory dismissal of the EV leader, Tesla.

    Tesla has the infrastructure, the best platform on which to build, they set the standards that actually work, have the only useful charging network, and they will own the biggest battery fabs (with Panasonic).

    Tesla is the next Intel: Tesla inside.

    Apple is friendly human interface on top of the platform, and uber is, at best, a service on top of that.

    Think about it: platform - customizations - services. It starts with the platform.
    May 21, 2015. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Share Price Means That Everyone Else Is The Winner [View article]
    @volte Hang on a sec... so the fleet can get go from ~0.01% electric to majority electric and nobody wins? Not Tesla but not anyone else either?

    A shift that big will have several winners and losers I would think.

    Tesla is, IMO, the new Intel of the EV age: Tesla inside. They make the platform, they own the infrastructure, they set the standards, and they (with Panasonic) own the battery fabs.

    Others like Apple and Uber will put window dressing and other "services" on top.

    Samsung probably becomes the AMD to Teslas' Intel. The rest go the way of the dodo or, at best, bang out some commodity Dell or HP servers on their way out.
    May 21, 2015. 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Share Price Means That Everyone Else Is The Winner [View article]
    @author "A hypothetical Ford (NYSE:F) or Toyota (NYSE:TM) shareholder is paying almost nothing for potential success in the future in these alternate platforms"

    Now there's an investment strategy! The Microsoft investor is paying practically nothing for the potential runaway successes of zune and Windows phone. Microsoft only needs to want to compete with Apple on those trendy "consumer gadgets"... It doesn't matter if the products are garbage.

    Did I get that about right?
    May 20, 2015. 07:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S P85D road test gets off to shaky start [View news story]
    @biznice don't be scared. These problems are still quite rare and fixed easily and without drama. Notwithstanding the drama on display here.

    BTW my door handles haven been flawless for 2 years now. As has the whole car really. They replace redesigned parts proactively. One bad door handle on one car will be reposted ad-infinitum.
    May 18, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stationary Batteries Will Power Tesla In The Future: An Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    @Winfield "faintest scintilla of a glimmer of a possibility..."

    Lightning motorcycles wants in: http://bit.ly/1JRDX3W

    "800,000 gas pumps" ... "5 minutes..."

    When you have a cell phone you don't care how many phone booths are out there. And when you have video on demand the number of video rental stores is also irrelevant. When you refuel as you sleep 97 times out of 100, the 800k, 5-minute figures are similarly meaningless.

    Counter-examples will always exist. What if there is no cell coverage in this remote town? What if it is 200 miles from a supercharger but I must return without charging? What if the internet is down?

    So sure. About the same number of people need a gas car as need a satellite phone.
    May 17, 2015. 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turns Out A Tesla Supercharger Costs 2 Or 3 Times What Elon Musk Said [View article]
    "In fact part of that competition is already there"

    Are you referring in particular to short range EVs or the hybrids that people are ditching for Subarus and other gas-only vehicles?
    May 16, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Maryland approves direct sales for Tesla Motors [View news story]
    I'm a tesla bull too but definitively respect doc. Nobody else here makes as many calls publicly, certainly not with as good a record. Every trade has a stop, which makes a lot of sense when dealing with something so volatile.

    Granted... all the call spreads he advocated lately were pretty confusing to me. Made it harder to tell bull vs. bear...
    May 14, 2015. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New turns in self-driving car programs at Tesla Motors and Google [View news story]
    @Nice "$5000 to replace a computer chip"

    My personal best was $150 to reprogram an Audi key. For the privlidge of making my own key work with my own car.

    There's a reason why 8 year old luxury German cars can be had for a song. Great deal if you're sleeping with a mechanic.
    May 14, 2015. 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New turns in self-driving car programs at Tesla Motors and Google [View news story]
    @tippystrategies "The BEV drivetrain may well be simpler and thus should eventually be more reliable than an ICE when they get it stable, which may take many years"

    Well, I'm not at all convinced the failure rate is anywhere near 20%. Human nature being what it is, the people whose drivetrains are fine are less likely to surf the "borken drivetrain" threads on TMC.

    Even if it is 20%, the nature of failure is significant. Like, a Chevy cobalt airbag not deploying in a severe wreck vs. a "balloon whine" which seems to be the biggest Tesla drivetrain complaint.

    Yes I am aware that in some cars the drivetrain problem was severe enough to render it inoperable. But I believe those failures were largely, if not universally, preceded by some loud grinding noises. Hint: if your 100k sedan is making loud grinding noises it might be time to call Tesla.

    And still, all of this is mitigated by a company that is perfecting it's art and happens to sell the only car (IMO) worth buying right now.
    May 14, 2015. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New turns in self-driving car programs at Tesla Motors and Google [View news story]
    @valueseeker & @tippydogstrategies

    "I would be worried if the Tesla cars last more than 2 years. "

    Um... the early ones are already older than 2 years. And despite your breathless reporting of every problem past & present, they're running "as-new", thank-you-very-much.

    Here is what matters:

    1) The few parts that do fail are replaced with redesigned parts that don't fail. Usually proactively. They did this on my car.

    2) They service the car in my parking lot at work, so I don't have to be subjected to a greasy waiting room, greasy salesmen, and greasy coffee.

    3) You're a damn fool if you think a battery slab with a direct-drive motor and computer will fare worse than the mountain and maze multiple complex air, ignition, fuel, electrical, vacuum, oil, combustion, compression, transmission, exhaust, and other systems in your car.

    4) There is no battery degradation after 2 years. THIS IS what you should be worried about since your last best hope of Tesla failure... is gone.
    May 13, 2015. 06:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to adapt cars to China's charging standards [View news story]
    "If in fact, the Chinese are going with the same signaling protocol as Tesla SuperChargers, and they are going with pretty much the same connector,"

    Wow... time for some (irrational?) exuberance. If the Chinese are adopting a Teslarian charging standard that bodes very very well for the future.

    China actually wants their billions of people to drive electric. Actively promotes it. Any automaker who might like to sell cars to those billions will use the standard. At which point they will have no choice but to buy-in to the supercharger network. Proliferation of superchargers and Tesla-class long range BEVs worldwide...
    May 12, 2015. 08:54 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Amazing Powerwall Reservations [View article]
    @cparm

    "These incredible (in the literal sense of the word) numbers most likely come from:
    1) A complete fabrication...
    2) Bogus "orders"...
    3) Shareholder [trolls]..."

    Hey cparm I have a 4th possibility:

    4) People who are interested in buying the product

    See I happen to think most people are mature enough to not go around entering Micky Mouse or Seymour Buttz on web forms.

    I could be wrong though...
    May 11, 2015. 07:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Amazing Powerwall Reservations [View article]
    @Paolo "After all, I just added 2 reservations to test this, and other people are making their own tests or even creating multiple reservations out of self-interest."

    1) How old are you? Twelve?

    2) So the Tesla bear case is now hinged upon huge numbers of people trolling the Tesla powerwall reservation page?
    May 11, 2015. 01:53 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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