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  • Are U.S. Equities Attractive Now? Comparing Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted PE To The Bond/Stock Ratio [View article]
    your idea is very valid, but when I used your regression equition and actual data to test it, the result is totally different from what you mentioned here.
    on 10/15/2007, the peak of spx, SPX=1548.71, VUSTX=10.96, use the equition Y=-0.251X+61.818, two-year return is 61.82. but actually two years later, SPX=1096.56, -29% return. on 7/11/2012 when you published this article, SPX=1341.45, VUSTX=13.93, the result is 61.82, almost the same as 10/15/2007. I used yahoo finance to extract the data for SPX AND VUSTX. do I miss anything?
    Sep 11 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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