manuel

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

BYD has a P/E of 60, you think this is reasonable?

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

Why does Goldman not just saY: we were part of the mess, with Government tax paYers moneY we have been rescued, we made moneY in the same Year, we have an Image of Serious and Responsible bankers who make moneY not by not working(as some believe) but by working up to 12 hours a daY, we are part of a System that creates Wealth, we are supposed to support Efficient Allocation of Capital, sometimes we have taken too much risk, we will not commit this mistakes again, thanks for having helped us to get out of the mess, and we consider it Fair to devolve this Years Bonuses to Good causes Like Global Warming or Cancer research......

Sustainable Energy: Solar Cell Skeptic

you burn fossil now to make it green for the next 30 years, so I believe it is a positive thing, you burn somewhere and you do not need to burn somewhere else where you usually burn much more(creating electricitY) than what you burn to make silicon......

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

So now we are at 50% of the downward retracement(taking your 2002 low which I think is too far away) , and 52 would be 2/3, and what would 37 and 21 be? And ok you look at the downside targets, but once a Good Long term Stock approaches such Strong Support levels and the Relative Strenght Index is so low I think it is legitimate to calculate Upside Targets. On such Good Long Term Stocks the downward trend attracts more BuYers than sellers, so I think that probalblY manY traders are calculating the Upside right now, but you are Right calculating and somehow knowing the downward potential is not a bad thing, I do not use fibonacci but I know that when a Stock starts rising again manY others will and I let the Upside take care of itself......


On Nov 04 12:15 PM Dividend Inc wrote:

> Dow Theory is based on the writings of Charles H. Dow (founder WSJ
> and Dow Industrial and Dow Transport Index) as interpreted by S.A.
> Nelson, William Peter Hamilton (editor WSJ), Robert Rhea, E. George
> Schaefer, and Richard Russell.
>
> The Dow Theory observes that stocks will retrace 1/3, 2/3, or 3/3
> of a increase or decline of a previous movement. However, unlike
> the manner in which you mentioned that you use Fibonacci numbers,
> Dow Theorists wait until the turn takes place before calculating
> the upside and downside targets. Obviously, both methods are more
> art than science and therefore are only worth what you get out of
> them.
>
> I suspect that those who apply upside target to a falling stock or
> index aren't appreciating the value of the current declining trend.
> When a stock is falling, I calculate the downside targets. When
> a stock is rising, to be cautious, I calculate the downside targets.
> The upside always takes care of itself.
>
> There is a lot more on the topic of Dow's Theory on my blog at dividendinc.blogspot.c....
> I think that you'll appreciate the fact that while Fibonacci numbers
> reflect nature, Dow Theory reflects the nature of markets specifically.
> I think that the most effective use of Fibonacciss is when they are
> applied to the Wave Principle.

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

But Syngenta has a lower Forward P/E(2010), Syngenta Forward P/E is around 14 and Monsanto is around 20......, Monsanto has a 12 Months target consensus of 87$, forward P/E 2011 is 15 and 2012 is 10 considering actual price and estimated Earnings(Data taken from Nasdaq Website)......

www.nasdaq.com/earning...

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

Syngenta, Monsanto´s European competitor is trading 40% above its november lows and it had similar troubles with its pesticide business......

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

may be 75$ could be some kind of resistance, but 80 looks better as resistance, it is also 200 MA, so it could easily go above 75 to 80$, last time it hit the lows in october november and december it went from 70 to 80 in one or two weeks with no pullback, so it reallY looks like a great buY......it is also trading at the lower Bollinger band, same as it did in october november and december, when it went from 70 to 80 with a straight line......in the last 3 years Relative Strenght Index never was as low as it is now......

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

Don´t you think that going back 7 years, to your low, is a bit too much, but all the other points you made are good, I believe November lows are Strong Support levels, but should it go under I don´ t think your levels will be useful, opticallY on the Chart 40 $ and 60 $ look like possible support levels, 2006 and 2007 Mon traded around these levels for months......, I think traders will look for fibonacci retracements from the High(140$) to the actual supposed low around 68$ and may use them to set resistance levels, there are no resistance lines until 80$, so it could easily go to 80$ and the first fibonacci retracment 23%(possible resistance) is just around 80$, so everything looks good and Soft commodities prices are up a lot too

Monsanto: Within Striking Distance

Relative Strenght Index is also around 20, a verY Good entrY point, sorrY can you explain me how you came up with the 4 levels mentioned above, is it some kind of fibonacci? But fibonacci retraces highs with actual lows, not past lows with past highs......

Monsanto (MON) within striking distance

Don´t you think that going back 7 years, to your low, is a bit too much, but all the other points you made are good, I believe November lows are Strong Support levels, but should it go under I don´ t think your levels will be useful, opticallY on the Chart 40 $ and 60 $ look like possible support levels, 2006 and 2007 Mon traded around these levels for months......, I think traders will look for fibonacci retracements from the High(140$) to the actual supposed low around 68$ and may use them to set resistance levels, there are no resistance lines until 80$, so it could easily go to 80$ and the first fibonacci retracment 23%(possible resistance) is just around 80$, so everything looks good and Soft commodities prices are up a lot too

Monsanto (MON) within striking distance

Relative Strenght Index is also around 20, a verY Good entrY point, sorrY can you explain me how you came up with the 4 levels mentioned above, is it some kind of fibonacci? But fibonacci retraces highs with actual lows, not past lows with past highs......

Charlie Munger Speaks Candidly on Investing in BBC Interview

I just wanted to post you an Article, it is not the one I had read before, but you could take a look:

www.smartmoney.com/inv.../

The Buffett cognoscenti have learned some lessons from the annus horribilis. They now suspect Buffett’s not as good an economist as he is an investor. As recently as his May 2008 shareholder meeting, when sidekick Charlie Munger predicted “turmoil as far ahead as we can see,” Buffett shushed him, saying the real estate bubble wouldn’t hurt the economy. Oops. “Buffett’s a great, disciplined investor,” says Bruce Greenwald, finance professor at Columbia University, “but he shouldn’t make those calls.” Others say Buffett’s gospel of buy-and-hold is outmoded, now that markets have grown increasingly volatile. It’s telling to compare his recent performance with those of hedge funds, which often dip quickly in and out of stocks. Over the past decade, the average North American stock-oriented hedge fund earned 9.7 percent a year after fees, compared with 2.9 percent for Berkshire, according to research by asset-management firm Lyster Watson & Co.

Charlie Munger Speaks Candidly on Investing in BBC Interview

setting Stop loss is not much trading, it is just setting them , you sleep even Better......


On Oct 30 06:56 PM Ravi Nagarajan wrote:

> We'll just have to agree to disagree. I've yet to meet anyone who
> has been able to time the market. I've found it possible to beat
> the market using value techniques and trying to avoid much trading
> and I sleep well at night. I'll just have to live with my mediocre
> results.

Charlie Munger Speaks Candidly on Investing in BBC Interview

I just read one of your older Articles, I am a Marketing professional and I must admit it is verY well written, may be you could also saY that for private consumption Brands work well when theY relieve you anxiety over the qualitY of the product, so as an example(I am Italian) if you BuY Olive Oil you want to buY an Italian Brand which gives you some guarantee over the QualitY even if you consume it in private......, but consider this I once read that someone defined the value of a Brand as follows:

If things go bad in the economy, recession, everything crashes, strong Brands are the one that get out faster, they are the one that get the most credit from banks, after armaggeddon Coca Cola goes to the bank, everY Bank in the World give them all they need, and in one year they are profitable again and they get all the credit they need the year before......

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Charlie Munger Speaks Candidly on Investing in BBC Interview

it is Good to buY under intrinsic and Buffett is a great teacher on when to buY, but you should consider selling at fair as well, at fair the probabilities are 50 50 %, at under they may be are 85 15 and at above they are 15 85, just do the same at fair as I suggested you to do at above, if your fair is 8$ you set Stop losses at 8, if it goes to 12 you set it at 10,5, if it goes to 13,5 you set it at 12, you can be flexible and set them considering the Relative Strenght Index, or if you do not want to use the Index just set them as you prefere, I hope you consider my advice......