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  • Liberty Media's Motivation For Setting Up Sirius XM Tracking Stock [View article]

    It was my understanding during the Q&A during earnings that Maffei had no interest or intent in selling the high basis shares. He seemed to make that clear and I will take him for his word.
    Nov 21, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Would It Make Sense For Sirius XM To Pursue Rush Limbaugh? [View article]

    By younger I mean 20s & 30s. Professionals who have the capacity to pay for radio and have potential to remain subscribers for a very long time.

    The one thing that I found most interesting was during the Q&A...I think Maffei stated that he did not at this time have current intent to sell the remaining high basis shares, or otherwise and he seemed to really push the long term value of the equity (SIRI)...though did highlight that there was uncertainty with how much value could come out of unlocking value from spectrum and connected versus value from subs, particularly secondary market for the next 10-15 years. I think there is a lot there to dissect. From sounds of things, they expect long term the NAV to narrow, and as such they believe LMCA to be the better investment as compared with the asset holding (SIRI), from what I gathered.
    Nov 4, 2015. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would It Make Sense For Sirius XM To Pursue Rush Limbaugh? [View article]

    Nice read. I agree that Sirius should not be in a "rush" to grab Limbaugh. I would rather them secure content to go after younger demographics that could remain loyal subscribers for years to come. Time will tell in which direction they move.

    On another note...looking forward to the LMCA call. Doubt there'll be any "news-making" headlines, but be interesting if more "premium" talk comes up in the Q&A and such.
    Nov 4, 2015. 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    I was more interested in hearing Mel discuss how he no longer owns any stocks, including SIRI. He bashed some of the same buybacks that he was a proponent for...suggesting that P/E ratios become inflated while earnings increase due to the buybacks...with only modest growth in revenues. He thusly feels that these multiples are not the right multiples.

    CN, I believe this echoes some of your concerns with buybacks. This could be your next article if you very well wanted it to be! ;)
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    "Worse, we have no idea of the revenue vs. cost structure of CVS."

    I don't think we need those details yet, while that part of the business is small. Similar to the way we don't need numbers about Apple Watch when it comes to cost structure and revenue. It's okay to lump it into "other" for now.

    Over the years as CVS become more of a player, I'm confident we'll learn more...and either be pleasantly surprised, or move on to the next adventure if it turns out to be underwhelming. Many companies try new things that don't pan out or that are less than expected. I'm happy Sirius is willing to take calculated risks. They are willing to try new things and change with the times. If CVS doesn't work, it's such a small part of the business right now that it won't matter. There will, in my opinion, be other things they try...some may work, others may not.
    Oct 27, 2015. 12:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]

    Thanks as always for the feedback. I'm not an expert in TA, don't claim to be, never will. Maybe breakout is the wrong term to use, but I still think that the fact that the equity broke above 52 week highs is a bullish sign. It will be more bullish if it can break above and hold $4.18 in my opinion.

    I agree that the "too many outstanding shares" argument is stupid and is not on the same level as the negativity surrounding CVS; however, I think we get the find the growth potential underwhelming. While 40% of new cars are connected to some capacity, the majority of the cars on the road are not, and that's where sirius is focusing its energy. They are building their strategy to deal with a connected car, Agero will likely play a small part of that, as will SXM17, as will the value of increased spectrum. By the time the connected car is mainstream, the company may be ready if they continue to move. I still think that's a ways off and the company has it right by going slow and steady.

    That said, I fully understand how fast things change. In my years alone we've gone to cassette tapes to CDs to streaming and digital downloads. Sirius XM however is taking steps to show that it is not a Kodak or a Blockbuster and that it is willing to change with the times. I like that.

    I didn't mean to imply that Sirius itself will provide a 10% yoy return for the next decade or two. What I stated was:

    "Those who can live with a 10% average annual return, over a period of 10-20 years, should do just fine in my view. And steady and predictable growth, can certainly play a nice role in someone's diversified portfolio."

    I used 10% as a mere example figure that I don't expect SIRI to double or triple in value in just a short term. I could have used 8, or 12 for that matter and achieved the same thing. I don't know whether or not SIRI will perform at 10%, 20%, or 5% for that matter, but what I like is that it has a relatively easy to value service based on free cash flow and appears to be a predictable growth model and seems pretty stable. I think when one has a diversified portfolio, stable companies ought to be a part of that. It is the right choice for me personally at least. Whether it's an index fund, or just a company that you can feel confident will continue to grow and continue to be around for many many years. To me it doesn't matter whether you buy an index fund at 10%, or a company you believe may grow at 10%. 10% is 10%. But while it's important for especially younger folks who have the ability to, to take more risk as time is on their side, I see nothing wrong with having some of the portfolio as more stable growth whether it's from an index fund, or just a stable company that'll be around for awhile that'll continue to produce returns. I like owning companies rather than index funds as in following the calls and such I can learn a great deal more about the market and investing in general as I can than just throwing it into an index fund. That said I don't hate on index funds either, they have their purpose and I have the equivalent of index funds that track market moves in my separate retirement account aimed at somewhat slower but more stable growth than perhaps investing in individual stocks. I want to take more risk in my other portfolio so I can have higher growth. But having some slower growth and stability in that portfolio for me personally is 'OK' should my faster growth bets not play out as I expect.

    Learning about things like FCF, EBITDA, share buybacks, how the auto industry is doing and changing (such as to the connected car) has all happened for me in part by investing in SIRI, reading articles, and listening to the calls. I'd not have picked up some of that by just solely throwing money into an index fund...though that is fine for some people...especially those without the time to do their own homework. And they too have their purpose in my view.

    Additionally, with stocks though, there's always the chance you are wrong and that the company will outperform an index fund. If I get 10% YOY with Sirius for the next 10 years I'll be happy. If I get more, I'll be ecstatic! :)
    Oct 26, 2015. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]

    I wasn't as disappointed with the call as you were. It seems to me that the connected vehicle services opportunity did not pan out as many had hoped, that's clear by now. However, their core business is performing well and there remain opportunities in both new and especially used car funnels. Management also did state that the connected car will remain a small, small portion of autos on the road for a long time to come. Thus, it makes sense for them to not focus on something that could be years (a decade or more?) away. But, they are positioned to take advantage should the day come where the connected car becomes more mainstream.

    I also liked the comments about increasing value from their spectrum so they could in the future be able to deliver 400 more stations, video streaming, and offer more with autonomous vehicles, or some combination. It appears management is positioning their business to change with market trends. But they are also focused on the longer term. In 20 years, sirius' core business may very well still be radio in the car, but they could differentiate by offering more content, video streaming services, among other things not yet stated.

    Malone has his paws on sirius and I believe he will do good things for his shareholders long term, and extracting long term value from sirius is going to be a part of that. Having said that...those with unrealistic expectations for sirius to double or triple in the next 12-18 months may be sorely disappointed. Those who can live with a 10% average annual return, over a period of 10-20 years, should do just fine in my view. And steady and predictable growth, can certainly play a nice role in someone's diversified portfolio. You maybe won't get rich off of the equity but you can keep up and likely exceed inflation, and you can do far better than a CD or savings account.

    Sirius is one of those companies that I think if you hold for 10 or 20 years, you can look back and brag to your friends how you first bought it when it was a buck and change. That day will not be in 2016, 2017, or 2020. Patience, patience, patience.

    For those wanting more risk and more potential upside, those opportunities also exist in the market. But for someone looking for something a bit more stable, sirius can play a role in someone's portfolio in my humble opinion.

    Hearing about how awful CVS opportunities are is getting to be as old as hearing about how sirius has too many shares and that's why the stock isn't going up. Sometimes taking a risk doesn't work out. In the case of CVS, it so far hasn't lived up to expectations. But the company is readying for a day when connected cars are more mainstream. The "new blood" of sirius investors in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, will enjoy the fruits of CVS when they reach my long as the company maintains a willingness to change with the times. When that day comes, I expect sirius will do much more with connected vehicle services. Until then, they'll talk it up and say they have a game plan for if/when that change occurs as they should. But new, used cars will continue to be primary focus for now it seems.

    If I was Blockbuster 10 years before Netflix, I'd want to be talking about how we could change the business to compete in changing times. A failure to change or differentiate...well, we've seen how that goes.

    A final word...I don't look at a recent move to 4.07 as tepid. I see a move above the previous 52 week high as a breakout, and it is only a matter of time before the October 2013 highs are tested.
    Oct 23, 2015. 06:33 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Liberty Media Using Sirius XM As An ATM? [View article]
    Thanks CN, I truly appreciate your feedback and you've given me some things to think about.

    So I haven't added to my SIRI position this year, but I bout some LMCA equivalent to about 10% of my SIRI holdings. I've also been buying up as much AAPL as I can given the recent weakness in the stock...this doesn't happen too often and I now have equal weight in my AAPL position as I do with SIRI. As AAPL is still well below my cost basis, I'll likely continue adding into year end (depending on how it trades after earnings).

    Going into year end I will also be paying attention to fed rates. I think financial stocks will benefit from higher rates in the next few years, so I plan to look at WFC into year end and build that position into 2016.

    Also next year I am looking at GILD. It trades at a very low multiple and could be a value play during the year of the upcoming election as the cost of prescription drugs seems to be a hot potato right now, and I think there could be continued volatility in biotechs into next year as a result.

    Lastly, I'm keeping an eye on some restaurant stocks. Domino's Pizza and Buffalo Wild Wings are each "breathing" right now, and I think could represent opportunity though I'm hesitant given their multiples. MCD could be better and also pays a nice divy. I'm really looking for high growth, low multiple opportunities over the next year to add to my existing portfolio. I'm looking for value.

    So in short, I guess you could say 2015 was the year I built up a position in AAPL given the rare weakness that it has put on, and going into 2016 I like financials and am looking at other sectors of the economy like healthcare, restaurant industry, etc. I have stocks I'm certainly watching and certainly interested in, but we'll see how they trade in the coming year and I'll make my decisions accordingly.
    Oct 20, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Liberty Media Using Sirius XM As An ATM? [View article]

    Thanks for the reply and for clarification. What I don't yet if a time comes that Liberty is to spin off SIRI to its own shareholders in an RMT, how a debt-laden entity depreciating in value would be beneficial to them. If I am a shareholder of LMCA, I want anything spun off to me to be worth something, a dividend of sorts, or something that will appreciate in value. While true the money LMCA gets in exchange for SIRI can be used to purchase great assets, I want what's spun off to me to be of value too. I don't want to be spun off junk. Given Maffei's frequent comments about how it would be nice to get them to pay a premium to Liberty, I certainly see where you are coming from though. But, I think Maffei also has responsibility to his own I feel conflicted about this issue.

    Anyways I am glad I continue to look at diversification and SIRI will represent an ever smaller portion of my holdings in the next couple of years.
    Oct 20, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Liberty Media Using Sirius XM As An ATM? [View article]

    Thought I saw some comments by you suggesting you were looking to be among the first to exit among a large crowd, and implied it could be around January or so. Are you expecting some event in the near to medium term that would lead to a mass exodus? Or are you merely looking to close out a portion in the name of diversification? Or do you simply see growth as too slow, and want to shift toward better opportunities?

    Seems to me despite the debt, there are some initiatives to expand growth, curious on learning more details early next year about SXM17, etc. While growth may in fact be slowing, I am unsure of why there would be a mass exodus from the equity...
    Oct 19, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM +1.3%, adds $2B in buyback authorization, to total $8B [View news story]
    If they are going to issue more debt to repurchase shares (even if some of those wind up being reissued via exec. compensation), at least the company is putting forward the illusion of being price sensitive when it comes to corporate buybacks. Taking this step during a correction is far more appealing than while the stock is at new 52 week highs!
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OK, I'll Say It: Sirius XM Had A Great Quarter [View article]

    Have a question for you. I certainly see how the benefit of buybacks via debt issuance has a long term rather than a short term benefit. You mention that the real benefit may not come even until after the buyback program ends (and it may last for years...potentially many!). There will likely, in my opinion, be critics who would say that the company no longer feels that the shares are a bargain if and when share repurchases are discontinued. If Sirius stops repurchasing shares, it must be because sp is no longer a value and there are better ways to put that money to work (i.e., divy, or more likely acquisitions, etc.). On the other hand, they could spin it years from now in a way that rationalizes via the cost of that higher interest rates years from now make it no longer rational to use debt to repurchase shares.

    That all said, do you have any thoughts surrounding these pathways? In any case how the stock deserves to trade in the future will depend on company performance, but Sirius is not often rewarded for performance, and a media spin about a repurchase discontinuation due to the shares no longer being a value could continue to make sirius an irrationally trading stock. I still think the street expects to see repurchases have a positive impact on the bottom line. When profits grow, when EPS grows YOY I believe the stock will then go up. Especially, if coupled with growing FCF/s. We'll see I suppose.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]

    Thanks so much for the reply, I know you're a busy guy & appreciate the time to provide your thoughts. I've learned a lot about TA just through your articles...cup and handles included. I didn't even know what an ascending bullish triangle was until you came along!

    Anyways, best wishes going into earnings! I plan to let my position on Sirius ride, but if we get a 5-handle this year or early next I may take a little off to diversify my portfolio some more; however, I will also be forward looking and see where the company is going and if any more color is added on SXM17, Agero, etc. One has to be willing to change as information changes. :)
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Hi SF-

    Interesting article, I was talking with a friend a few weeks ago and talked about how the pattern in '13-'15 mirrors that of the C+H in '11-'12 and was wondering if there'd be a repeat myself. I do worry about the one time hit that could be coming...and at first was very weary about any upside potential...but if it is widely expected by the street, it may not cause as much pain as some previous one time charges that have been incurred in recent quarters. Additionally, I have to wonder what the street reaction would be if Sirius earnings deliver even with that one time expense. I've often thought I'd be more impressed with Sirius can meet or beat earnings even with a one time charge. That to me would signal a lot more strength in the company than a miss due to a one time charge. For instance, if EPS can come in at .02 or better even the charge that's coming, that to me would be really, really bullish. An EPS of .00 isn't necessarily bad given what the earnings would have been without the expense; however, that's less impressive to me and not much of a reason for the stock to break out of a range without some sort of catalyst (Maybe SXM17).

    I do have a question though given your strength with technical analysis. To me it looks like the current C+H is a lot more elongated, if you will, and I'm wondering if that affects the upside expectation on a breakout compared with the last one? I wonder if on a breakout a rally would be more gradual? Though I've also heard the longer the period of consolidation, the bigger the move afterwards. So I suppose it's not really possible to say. If you look at the '11-'12 handle for example, the % change from top to bottom was higher, I think, than the current. The move from $2.44 to $1.27 was basically a cut in half (forming the cup). The move from $4.18 to $3 was still a significant move, but not as much as the previous C+H pattern...and I suppose this is what I mean when I say it is more elongated. Just wondering, based on TA theory, if this says anything about expectations on a breakout?

    Thanks so much in advance!

    Jul 16, 2015. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Record Company Suit [View article]

    "Well, it dipped below $3.75 earlier this month, so why didn't you jump in?"

    Thought about it, but I was too busy buying more AAPL. I have done a fair job of spreading risk around in recent months, and while I have a ways to go, I'll say this about Sirius. In watching it trade in recent months, it seems $3.70s was a local minimum, and, represents the bottom of its recent trading range. Should negative earnings lead to a selloff...I'd view any return to those levels (or below) as very attractive.

    Lastly, it doesn't sound as though negative headlines would disappear. Rather, they would be replaced with news of "missed earnings" and/or "lowered guidance for the first time since..." and so forth, based on your article's conclusions, and I'd think it would have negative impacts on SP unless there's other news to counter that. Starting a small options play and/or adding to LMCA for me, isn't a sure thing. But we'll see how the equities trade and I'll make my strategic decisions accordingly. Should share price simply do a gradual ascent above $4, I'm happy to let what I have ride while I pursue other attractive investments.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment