ratsharp

Tata Targets Jaguar and Land Rover for Long-Term Returns

view change ... my analysis on hero honda has some potential flaws ... changed to negative ...

Is India Experiencing a Real Slowdown?

wait for the cues on monsoon.. thats the real deal for any bermudan money to come in ... thats where they mix the hedge fund vodka with the weather reinsurers juice... for india it will be the make or break before thy hit the next bump called elections..

Morgan Stanley Revises India's GDP Growth Estimates Down

btw the combined analyst expectation of MS for this qtr earning is a 23% YOY growth .. higher than the prior qtr's 17% yoy growth... hmmm so is india earnings really slowing .. or is this just a corection related to the risk premia...

Tata Targets Jaguar and Land Rover for Long-Term Returns

hero honda .. the motorcycle manufacturer is a better bet than Tata Motors and a trifle cheaper at 9X. The biggest event of the year will be the Indian Monsoon.. which will define the returns of the indian market for the rest of the year. ANY slippage there will push the market off another cliff , where sum of the part valuation will be forgotten. Hero honda.. though may suffer at the hands of the poor monsoon ..has little to lose ... the upside can be a 20% multiple and a 10% earning ( espcially with a cycle of eventful launches which may help gain some market share). i am wary of recommending anything ..but if anyone who decides to buy tata motor ..shd probably consider HH.

The pay commission money abt 31 bn usd over 3 yrs too may be just sufficient to add up for a small apartment loan mortgage and may not make it to nano.

And I really want to understand the ground clearance of a 4 passenger loaded nano ...thats like a make or break atleast in village areas...

Regarding success of nano ... note that last timearound indica turned out to be a flop show before it was relaunched and today has become a long/medium distance taxi-cab ... nano could easily replace the new fiats in mumbai, new ambassadors in calcutta and the new bajaj 3 wheelers round the country with the right strategy and govt backing. (noting however that the second hand versions of various vehicles running in the country are 1/3rd- /4th the cost of nano)

J.P. Morgan on Verge of Buying Bear for $20/Share

$20.. i think people find it hard to believe a rumour of $2 ..and so multiply it by 10 ...thats the level of truth and distortion in this market ...evrything factored by 10 ..hehe

Subprime Write-Downs More Than 50% Done? Write-Ups Coming Next?

i am learning..but i wonder if i buy ..where will it get back to ..and if it will gets back to a higher level ..will stay there long enough for me to exit my trade .. or shd i hold till maturity..and pay the interim MTM ...and if i do that is my broker stable enough to keep the trade or will I have to get all the cash... and if it goes down again ( due to insufficient liquididty) ...what happens to me. SO nett i will trade only when the issue has been or close to resolution.. (i.e. till people start acepting losses and the fire sale actually happens ..not the one where the bid ask price simply gravitate lower and the bid ask spread make the quotes look stupid..

The Credit Crunch Creeps Up on India

Indians have never been confident of growth prospects in india. Its only the ambitioius indian entrepreneur and the enthusiastic foreign institutional investor who has put in the money where their mouth is. That led to a 5 fold rise .. and today when we are down by 30%, in the face of headwinds ( which are for real) ..should we abandon the india thesis. NO ....The problem with the non believers is that they have never seen growth led by infra and capex spending ever before and it is natural for them to pooh pooh it. Empty malls are a reality in every market ... they force rentals to come down and the budding entrepreneurs open up shops again ...so the dynamics works as long as he can afford it.

There was a comment by a ubs guy ..which pretty much sums it up...
" In 2006-07, according to data provided by the Reserve Bank of India, the savings rate in India was 34% of the GDP (gross domestic product). India’s GDP stands close to $1.1 trillion in 2007. This means total savings were to the tune of about $370 billion last year.
Household savings were 28% of the economy, translating into $300 billion, and corporate savings accounted for another 6%. Half of the $300 billion household savings last year went to real assets such as gold and property while another half was parked in financial assets including bank deposits, insurance, provident and pension funds, and equities. Only $9.45 billion, or 6.3%, of household savings ended up in equities in 2006-07. This will go up to 10% this year, say analysts. Even if the economy grows by 8.5%, this 10% will translate into $16 billion. In 2005-06, only 1.1% of household savings ended up in equities. Small investors could soon call the shots in India’s equity markets say some analysts, who expect up to $32 billion (Rs1.26 trillion) of household savings to have flowed into the market in the 12 months to March 2008. This amount is almost double the record $17 billion purchases of Indian equities by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) this year, till mid-December" .... Those who invest need to understand fund flows and these numbers to guage the end to this story... dont start splurging your free advice at every sharp fall...

ICICI: Private Indian Bank Is Attractive

the central bank policy in april ( where they could think of a repo rate cut) is the only possible trigger to stabilization of IBN price and a subsequent rise... else nothing seems to be going right .. slowdown in credit ( mortgage and commercial loan ..owing to higher spreads and a general feeling of wait and watch) ..increase in NPA's causing higher provisions, constraint of capital conidering their recent MTM losses internatonally ( with more to come), 35% incr in branches ( implying a near time increase in expense), rural focus (not clear yet how they plan to increase market or take market share from govt banks) . All in all the "mo" 's not there .. and since this is a sum of the parts ( where the parts like insurance etc. might take more time to divest) ...anything can happen to near time prices... so this falling knife can make you bleed and no one like's blood (other than the one on the street)

International Banks Should Follow ICICI's Transparent Example

yeah sure.. i'll be transparent today ..and you will push me out of my postions by dropping your bid to unreasonable levels ... and I will be forced to call it mark to market ..and you will call it market efficiency

Inflation's Power: The Dollar in 25 Years

Its like managing your house expense... when costs rise ( aka inflation) , you cut down on wasteful expense ... you work hard for getting better returns i.e. look for companies that will outrun the inflationary costs... look for international assets which will grow et al.

My point is... gold is not a commodity for long term investment. It has absolutely no value ...just like art .. it just in the eyes of the beholder. If your trader tells you to buy it .. go ahead and do it ... but dont try to deceive yourself by saying that you are doing it to protect your assets from a 25 year inflation impact.... thats being lazy ..not strategic not insightful ...plain lazy

Debt Trap Mass Exodus

i agree with you and you and you... all an sundry...
my portfolio of stocks in mbia, abk et al has lost 90% ... my house is about to be foreclosed as my option arm gets readjusted to 4 times my monthly payment... my credit card limit is exceeded and i cant pay the min due this mth... my house equity loan has exploded... and i lost my last job at walmart ( where i got hourly wages) after being fired from a private equity firm on account of "material a.. disclosure" ... and my student loan ( was 20 yr tenure) for the 2 yr mba i did needs to be repaid.. and my car loan installment hasnt been paid in 3 mths... my wife wants a vacation in vegas ... i lost my unemployment dole case yesterday and cant get any social security refund because of some problem with my immigration status ... and i am overweight and losing sight... and my dog left me for the homeless down the road who fed him al the crap and loved him more and devoted more time...

India's Exploding Real Estate Market: Shades of the Florida Condo Bubble

bubble 101 ...
1. the price has to defy measurement on all possible parameters ( relative/absolute/medi... before it crashes.
2. actual deal has to happen at the topmost price
3. bubble collapses only Slide accelerates..not just slide happen
4. bubble collapses only when an institution directly involved in the bubble "signals fatigue" ...
5. icici stock starts falling and the investment rep comes back to you ( but now he represents citi!!)

Moody's CEO Wins the Blame-Shifting Prize

i am a visitor from outside US. When people come to my country they are amazaed at how it can run without basic infrastructure , lack of power , clogged road and what role does the government play. Funny enough I get a similar feeling, of complete contrast. A country like US with such abundant resources, educated people and a great government system ( more efficient except probably places singapore etc) ... how does it allow a set of institution called rating agencies to work such inefficiently. They have an important role in the system and thats what they forget. Their consistent cash flows is a function of powers vested by the government. The model of earnings seems similar to govt auctioned power projects in my country which guarantee a certain IRR and at the same time regulate power tariff.... when I say model I mean the purpose of an institution/project...... I really dont care about investors losing money in all housing related stocks like banks insurance cos.etc... but i would seriously expect a government of principle to setup an example this time ( i know that legally moody's is invincible).. that would satisfy the next generation that they are well protected of a mass scale fraud of this nature..

BlackRock: Impressive Report, But More Specifics Please

whats the issue..cant wait for the 10K's or dont have the time to read post result transcripts..

ICICI Bank Up 10% on News of IPO of Brokerage Arm: What's Next?

i'd compare icici to the culture/technology/peo... at bank of america .... the excesses icici will reach in valuations must atleast match BOA in historical ..relative or absolute terms.... I am not sure if that's already surpassed... but i'd hold this one till the india story is finally over... No other stock reflects the India story in its totality urban or rural ..consumer or corporate. Also the mark to mark gains on their books on account of any fall in interest rates at the long end of the horizon from the peak levels will provide the buffer one needs.