ratsharp's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/37154/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/70114-tata-targets-jaguar-and-land-rover-for-long-term-returns?source=feed#comment-136362 136362 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 04:24:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70755-is-india-experiencing-a-real-slowdown?source=feed#comment-136361 136361 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 04:21:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70852-morgan-stanley-revises-india-s-gdp-growth-estimates-down?source=feed#comment-136360 136360 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 04:15:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70114-tata-targets-jaguar-and-land-rover-for-long-term-returns?source=feed#comment-134369 134369
The pay commission money abt 31 bn usd over 3 yrs too may be just sufficient to add up for a small apartment loan mortgage and may not make it to nano.

And I really want to understand the ground clearance of a 4 passenger loaded nano ...thats like a make or break atleast in village areas...

Regarding success of nano ... note that last timearound indica turned out to be a flop show before it was relaunched and today has become a long/medium distance taxi-cab ... nano could easily replace the new fiats in mumbai, new ambassadors in calcutta and the new bajaj 3 wheelers round the country with the right strategy and govt backing. (noting however that the second hand versions of various vehicles running in the country are 1/3rd- /4th the cost of nano)

]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:31:12 -0400
The pay commission money abt 31 bn usd over 3 yrs too may be just sufficient to add up for a small apartment loan mortgage and may not make it to nano.

And I really want to understand the ground clearance of a 4 passenger loaded nano ...thats like a make or break atleast in village areas...

Regarding success of nano ... note that last timearound indica turned out to be a flop show before it was relaunched and today has become a long/medium distance taxi-cab ... nano could easily replace the new fiats in mumbai, new ambassadors in calcutta and the new bajaj 3 wheelers round the country with the right strategy and govt backing. (noting however that the second hand versions of various vehicles running in the country are 1/3rd- /4th the cost of nano)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68708-j-p-morgan-on-verge-of-buying-bear-for-20-share?source=feed#comment-127320 127320 Sun, 16 Mar 2008 19:41:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68550-subprime-write-downs-more-than-50-done-write-ups-coming-next?source=feed#comment-126779 126779 Sat, 15 Mar 2008 00:25:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68232-the-credit-crunch-creeps-up-on-india?source=feed#comment-126744 126744
There was a comment by a ubs guy ..which pretty much sums it up...
" In 2006-07, according to data provided by the Reserve Bank of India, the savings rate in India was 34% of the GDP (gross domestic product). India’s GDP stands close to $1.1 trillion in 2007. This means total savings were to the tune of about $370 billion last year.
Household savings were 28% of the economy, translating into $300 billion, and corporate savings accounted for another 6%. Half of the $300 billion household savings last year went to real assets such as gold and property while another half was parked in financial assets including bank deposits, insurance, provident and pension funds, and equities. Only $9.45 billion, or 6.3%, of household savings ended up in equities in 2006-07. This will go up to 10% this year, say analysts. Even if the economy grows by 8.5%, this 10% will translate into $16 billion. In 2005-06, only 1.1% of household savings ended up in equities. Small investors could soon call the shots in India’s equity markets say some analysts, who expect up to $32 billion (Rs1.26 trillion) of household savings to have flowed into the market in the 12 months to March 2008. This amount is almost double the record $17 billion purchases of Indian equities by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) this year, till mid-December" .... Those who invest need to understand fund flows and these numbers to guage the end to this story... dont start splurging your free advice at every sharp fall...
]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:58:51 -0400
There was a comment by a ubs guy ..which pretty much sums it up...
" In 2006-07, according to data provided by the Reserve Bank of India, the savings rate in India was 34% of the GDP (gross domestic product). India’s GDP stands close to $1.1 trillion in 2007. This means total savings were to the tune of about $370 billion last year.
Household savings were 28% of the economy, translating into $300 billion, and corporate savings accounted for another 6%. Half of the $300 billion household savings last year went to real assets such as gold and property while another half was parked in financial assets including bank deposits, insurance, provident and pension funds, and equities. Only $9.45 billion, or 6.3%, of household savings ended up in equities in 2006-07. This will go up to 10% this year, say analysts. Even if the economy grows by 8.5%, this 10% will translate into $16 billion. In 2005-06, only 1.1% of household savings ended up in equities. Small investors could soon call the shots in India’s equity markets say some analysts, who expect up to $32 billion (Rs1.26 trillion) of household savings to have flowed into the market in the 12 months to March 2008. This amount is almost double the record $17 billion purchases of Indian equities by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) this year, till mid-December" .... Those who invest need to understand fund flows and these numbers to guage the end to this story... dont start splurging your free advice at every sharp fall...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67849-icici-private-indian-bank-is-attractive?source=feed#comment-126078 126078 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 14:24:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67295-international-banks-should-follow-icici-s-transparent-example?source=feed#comment-122463 122463 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 11:43:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66657-inflation-s-power-the-dollar-in-25-years?source=feed#comment-121035 121035
My point is... gold is not a commodity for long term investment. It has absolutely no value ...just like art .. it just in the eyes of the beholder. If your trader tells you to buy it .. go ahead and do it ... but dont try to deceive yourself by saying that you are doing it to protect your assets from a 25 year inflation impact.... thats being lazy ..not strategic not insightful ...plain lazy]]> Sun, 02 Mar 2008 03:20:50 -0500
My point is... gold is not a commodity for long term investment. It has absolutely no value ...just like art .. it just in the eyes of the beholder. If your trader tells you to buy it .. go ahead and do it ... but dont try to deceive yourself by saying that you are doing it to protect your assets from a 25 year inflation impact.... thats being lazy ..not strategic not insightful ...plain lazy]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63579-debt-trap-mass-exodus?source=feed#comment-115338 115338 my portfolio of stocks in mbia, abk et al has lost 90% ... my house is about to be foreclosed as my option arm gets readjusted to 4 times my monthly payment... my credit card limit is exceeded and i cant pay the min due this mth... my house equity loan has exploded... and i lost my last job at walmart ( where i got hourly wages) after being fired from a private equity firm on account of "material a.. disclosure" ... and my student loan ( was 20 yr tenure) for the 2 yr mba i did needs to be repaid.. and my car loan installment hasnt been paid in 3 mths... my wife wants a vacation in vegas ... i lost my unemployment dole case yesterday and cant get any social security refund because of some problem with my immigration status ... and i am overweight and losing sight... and my dog left me for the homeless down the road who fed him al the crap and loved him more and devoted more time...
]]> Fri, 08 Feb 2008 17:44:39 -0500 my portfolio of stocks in mbia, abk et al has lost 90% ... my house is about to be foreclosed as my option arm gets readjusted to 4 times my monthly payment... my credit card limit is exceeded and i cant pay the min due this mth... my house equity loan has exploded... and i lost my last job at walmart ( where i got hourly wages) after being fired from a private equity firm on account of "material a.. disclosure" ... and my student loan ( was 20 yr tenure) for the 2 yr mba i did needs to be repaid.. and my car loan installment hasnt been paid in 3 mths... my wife wants a vacation in vegas ... i lost my unemployment dole case yesterday and cant get any social security refund because of some problem with my immigration status ... and i am overweight and losing sight... and my dog left me for the homeless down the road who fed him al the crap and loved him more and devoted more time...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63763-india-s-exploding-real-estate-market-shades-of-the-florida-condo-bubble?source=feed#comment-115326 115326 1. the price has to defy measurement on all possible parameters ( relative/absolute/medi... before it crashes.
2. actual deal has to happen at the topmost price
3. bubble collapses only Slide accelerates..not just slide happen
4. bubble collapses only when an institution directly involved in the bubble "signals fatigue" ...
5. icici stock starts falling and the investment rep comes back to you ( but now he represents citi!!)
]]> Fri, 08 Feb 2008 16:47:48 -0500 1. the price has to defy measurement on all possible parameters ( relative/absolute/medi... before it crashes.
2. actual deal has to happen at the topmost price
3. bubble collapses only Slide accelerates..not just slide happen
4. bubble collapses only when an institution directly involved in the bubble "signals fatigue" ...
5. icici stock starts falling and the investment rep comes back to you ( but now he represents citi!!)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62027-moody-s-ceo-wins-the-blame-shifting-prize?source=feed#comment-113555 113555 Tue, 29 Jan 2008 19:45:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60782-blackrock-impressive-report-but-more-specifics-please?source=feed#comment-111661 111661 Sun, 20 Jan 2008 11:34:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59306-icici-bank-up-10-on-news-of-ipo-of-brokerage-arm-what-s-next?source=feed#comment-109106 109106 Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:44:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59187-why-technical-analysis-is-nonsense?source=feed#comment-108739 108739 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 12:54:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/55007-goldman-sachs-indian-chinese-institutions-could-buy-american-banks?source=feed#comment-102616 102616 1. indian banks too dont like competition on home front...license to open branches are limited in india too.
2. the cost structure arbitrage in banking is a myth beyond what jp morgan's done in its retail business ... IB/capital markets cannot be handled frm india
3. branch banking in india ..is like branch banking in us.. the big banks realize that all of it cant be online..and so their cost structure is already lower... getting indian institutions cant reduce costs ...unless of course oracle offers discounted prices to indian/chinese banks..
4. the purchase of american institutions by indian/chinese is based on the premise that the latter will get cheaper/efficient assets in US compared to their own country ..and possibly rreplicate some of the setup in their own less efficient environment...
5. people dont do serious banking with cheap costs ( coz costs with larger us banks is low based on the services they provide in a country which is multiple times the size/scope of india/china ( in terms of urban areas) ...similar to telecom. The high end banking is about trust ... can never be inspired by countries which have possibility of nationalization etc.

more later...]]> Wed, 21 Nov 2007 08:52:45 -0500 1. indian banks too dont like competition on home front...license to open branches are limited in india too.
2. the cost structure arbitrage in banking is a myth beyond what jp morgan's done in its retail business ... IB/capital markets cannot be handled frm india
3. branch banking in india ..is like branch banking in us.. the big banks realize that all of it cant be online..and so their cost structure is already lower... getting indian institutions cant reduce costs ...unless of course oracle offers discounted prices to indian/chinese banks..
4. the purchase of american institutions by indian/chinese is based on the premise that the latter will get cheaper/efficient assets in US compared to their own country ..and possibly rreplicate some of the setup in their own less efficient environment...
5. people dont do serious banking with cheap costs ( coz costs with larger us banks is low based on the services they provide in a country which is multiple times the size/scope of india/china ( in terms of urban areas) ...similar to telecom. The high end banking is about trust ... can never be inspired by countries which have possibility of nationalization etc.

more later...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54580-learn-from-japan-and-have-a-plan?source=feed#comment-102273 102273 Sun, 18 Nov 2007 15:17:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/50289-indian-stock-plunge-a-yearly-call?source=feed#comment-99248 99248 Sat, 20 Oct 2007 10:53:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49724-oracle-bids-17-share-for-bea-systems?source=feed#comment-98547 98547 Sat, 13 Oct 2007 00:53:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49733-electronic-arts-faces-risk-heading-into-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-98546 98546 Sat, 13 Oct 2007 00:36:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49733-electronic-arts-faces-risk-heading-into-holiday-season?source=feed#comment-98545 98545 Sat, 13 Oct 2007 00:35:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48529-will-financial-stocks-rally?source=feed#comment-97515 97515 Wed, 03 Oct 2007 01:26:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46864-blackstone-buys-20-stake-in-state-owned-chinese-chemical-producer?source=feed#comment-95761 95761 It allows the Chinese govt to trade/rotate its own portfolio faster than what it would have done by owning the company directly... think deeper..
But i dont disagree with the fact that Blackstone investors are in the sweet spot.
]]> Tue, 11 Sep 2007 14:11:17 -0400 It allows the Chinese govt to trade/rotate its own portfolio faster than what it would have done by owning the company directly... think deeper..
But i dont disagree with the fact that Blackstone investors are in the sweet spot.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44941-five-cash-rich-companies?source=feed#comment-94365 94365 Wed, 22 Aug 2007 23:08:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44844-how-much-longer-will-indian-outsourcers-offer-cost-advantages?source=feed#comment-94017 94017
why dont you take the PV of these benefits ... you will hit upon a new conclusion ( try it)...

no effort made on assuming stochastic currency rates ..or a step function ... try to bring some novelty..try to incorporate cycles in your assumptions

and again .. lots of numbers and information without any conclusion and insight on where are you leading us to ... dont tell me that we shd look forward to a possible event in 2017 ...]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2007 01:30:53 -0400
why dont you take the PV of these benefits ... you will hit upon a new conclusion ( try it)...

no effort made on assuming stochastic currency rates ..or a step function ... try to bring some novelty..try to incorporate cycles in your assumptions

and again .. lots of numbers and information without any conclusion and insight on where are you leading us to ... dont tell me that we shd look forward to a possible event in 2017 ...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44689-gold-s-value-in-the-21st-century-about-as-real-as-the-myth-of-el-dorado?source=feed#comment-93932 93932 The upper rich and the traditional hoarders of gold do consume gold ( only as investment) ... men always wore a gold chain ..( usually nothing more) ..older women still wear it ( sometimes overdo it) ... but the interesting part is that the current gen has little or no interest in the ornamental value ...as they move to diamonds/ruubies./gems etc.
net: the demand for gold will continue , peak as the developing countries grow and then taper off to the lows.
the gold standard et al is past .. the future standard will require assets . and it could be other alternative assets ( a small part of which will be gold) . The only reason when i see the stratosphere of gold is when the supply concentration shifts evenly between central banks and the so called "retail". thats the crucial turning point.]]> Fri, 17 Aug 2007 13:48:52 -0400 The upper rich and the traditional hoarders of gold do consume gold ( only as investment) ... men always wore a gold chain ..( usually nothing more) ..older women still wear it ( sometimes overdo it) ... but the interesting part is that the current gen has little or no interest in the ornamental value ...as they move to diamonds/ruubies./gems etc.
net: the demand for gold will continue , peak as the developing countries grow and then taper off to the lows.
the gold standard et al is past .. the future standard will require assets . and it could be other alternative assets ( a small part of which will be gold) . The only reason when i see the stratosphere of gold is when the supply concentration shifts evenly between central banks and the so called "retail". thats the crucial turning point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44293-is-convergys-a-value-play-at-current-levels?source=feed#comment-93675 93675 so shd we buy based on your "analysis" or should we sell. Coz fence sitting sure hurts my bottomline... and reading incessant info hurts my eyes..]]> Tue, 14 Aug 2007 21:41:29 -0400 so shd we buy based on your "analysis" or should we sell. Coz fence sitting sure hurts my bottomline... and reading incessant info hurts my eyes..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44396-bea-jumps-on-upgrades-by-bear-stearns-ubs?source=feed#comment-93674 93674 doesnt look like the beas call has any legs ... forget any buyouts till credit crisis is over ..... or atleast till beas becomes much cheaper...]]> Tue, 14 Aug 2007 21:33:23 -0400 doesnt look like the beas call has any legs ... forget any buyouts till credit crisis is over ..... or atleast till beas becomes much cheaper...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44437-3-highlights-from-goldman-sachs-conference-call?source=feed#comment-93673 93673 Tue, 14 Aug 2007 21:25:44 -0400